Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they <em>could</em> roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deliveroo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27468:1" rel="noopener">Deliveroo (ROO LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oxford-nanopore-technologies-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34444:1" rel="noopener">Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT LN)</a> are newly eligible securities forecasted to be added to F250 due to the recent change of the FCA listing category framework.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrexpo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24163:1" rel="noopener">Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN)</a> is the new forecasted addition-migration to F250 following its ~25% price jump over the last two days which made it surpass the entry threshold.</li>
<li>Applied Nutrition Plc (APN LN) is a newly eligible, forecasted to be added to small-cap following its IPO listing on 24 October 2024.</li>
</ul>



Deliveroo (ROO LN) and Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT LN) are newly eligible securities forecasted to be added to F250 due to the recent change of the FCA listing category framework.

Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN) is the new forecasted addition-migration to F250 following its ~25% price jump over the last two days which made it surpass the entry threshold.
Applied Nutrition Plc (APN LN) is a newly eligible, forecasted to be added to small-cap following its IPO listing on 24 October 2024.


FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecast (Final): ALW and STJ for Top 100; ROO and ONT for Next 250

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>The final rankings will be decided based on the full market cap at the close of trading today (3rd December 2024).</li>
<li>Based on the current numbers, we see three for the F100 index and three or more other changes for the F250 index in December 2024.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
The final rankings will be decided based on the full market cap at the close of trading today (3rd December 2024).
Based on the current numbers, we see three for the F100 index and three or more other changes for the F250 index in December 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Final Trading Day; Announcement Tomorrow!

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, we see three F100 changes and four F250 changes. Some of these index change expectations are related to the changes made to the UK Listing Rules in June 2024.</li>
<li>The final changes will be decided based on 3rd December 2024 closing prices.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
Currently, we see three F100 changes and four F250 changes. Some of these index change expectations are related to the changes made to the UK Listing Rules in June 2024.
The final changes will be decided based on 3rd December 2024 closing prices.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 24: LONGs Up 10% Vs Index in a Month; Time for New Trade

United Kingdom

Games Workshop Group Plc manufactures and retails tabletop war-game systems and associated miniatures. The Company operates approximately 250 stores and serves over 350 independent retailers in the United Kingdom. Games Workshop also has stores in North America, Continental Europe and Australia.

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Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW LN)

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecast (Final): ALW and STJ for Top 100; ROO and ONT for Next 250

Deliveroo and Oxford Nanopore set to join footsie 250 due to a change in the FCA listing category under the new framework. Ferrexpo Plc is a new...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Final Trading Day; Announcement Tomorrow!

There are multiple names close to the border and depending on how prices move today, these names can get involved in index changes or miss out on...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 24: LONGs Up 10% Vs Index in a Month; Time for New Trade

The Top 10 F250 potential ADDs from the last insight have outperformed the F250 index by 10% since 24th October 2024. It might be time to revise...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecast (Final): ALW and STJ for Top 100; ROO and ONT for Next 250

​Deliveroo and Oxford Nanopore set to join footsie 250 due to a change in the FCA listing category under the new framework. Ferrexpo Plc is a new...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Final Trading Day; Announcement Tomorrow!

There are multiple names close to the border and depending on how prices move today, these names can get involved in index changes or miss out on...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 24: LONGs Up 10% Vs Index in a Month; Time for New Trade

The Top 10 F250 potential ADDs from the last insight have outperformed the F250 index by 10% since 24th October 2024. It might be time to revise...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Deliveroo and Oxford Nanopore set to join footsie 250 due to a change in the FCA listing category under the new framework. Ferrexpo Plc is a new...