Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be up to seven index  changes including a couple of potential intra-review index changes that could be triggered by M&amp;A events.</li>
<li>I expect the regular Inclusion/Exclusion events to take place at the market close on Friday 15th December 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to seven index  changes including a couple of potential intra-review index changes that could be triggered by M&amp;A events.
I expect the regular Inclusion/Exclusion events to take place at the market close on Friday 15th December 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>UK Industrials maintain top Sector weight. Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary underweights fund Technology overweight.</li>
<li>Investment Managers Industry group hits record exposure. REITs largely unloved by UK Small/Midcap funds.</li>
<li>Future plc remains the most widely held company. XPS Pensions and Foresight Group Holdings are the top overweights. B&amp;M, Weir Group and Rightmove lead the underweights.</li>
</ul>


UK Industrials maintain top Sector weight. Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary underweights fund Technology overweight.
Investment Managers Industry group hits record exposure. REITs largely unloved by UK Small/Midcap funds.
Future plc remains the most widely held company. XPS Pensions and Foresight Group Holdings are the top overweights. B&amp;M, Weir Group and Rightmove lead the underweights.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 <em>Int'l Compass</em> how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Pop Mart International Group L / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">POP MART (POP HK)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Pop Mart will commence trading on Friday, 11 December. Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and <a href="http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1062357/ipo-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opened 82% higher</a> at HK$70.00 in the grey market and last stood at $70.00.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-creditable-performance-in-tough-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45653" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times</a> we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45956" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that IPO price range is attractive.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$43.06 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price continues to provide good upside potential. </p></div></div></div>

POP MART (POP HK) is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Pop Mart will commence trading on Friday, 11 December. Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and opened 82% higher at HK$70.00 in the grey market and last stood at $70.00.In Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that IPO price range is attractive.Our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$43.06 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price continues to provide good upside potential. 

Pop Mart International IPO: Trading Debut

United Kingdom

ME Group International PLC manufactures, sells, and operates automated instant-service equipment. The Company offers coin-operated automatic photobooths, photographic development, and printing equipment, as well as operates copiers, express print services, and children's rides.

Burberry Group PLC is a global luxury brand with British heritage, core outerwear, and large leather goods base. The Company designs and sources apparel and accessories, selling through a diversified network of retail, digital, wholesale, and licensing channels worldwide.

Bellway p.l.c. is a holding company whose subsidiaries build residential houses and conduct associated trading activities. The subsidiaries build starter or first time buyer homes, featuring two and three bedroom semi-detached houses, apartments and terraced houses. The Company operates in England, Wales and Scotland.

The Character Group plc designs, develops, and distributes toys, games, and gifts in the United Kingdom and Rest of the world. The company sells its products under the Peppa Pig, Scooby Doo, Doctor Who, Fireman Sam, and Weebles, as well as Teksta, The Zelfs, Shimmer ?n Sparkle, Little Live Pets, and Minecraft brands. It also imports and distributes gifts; and invests in properties. The Character Group plc was founded in 1991 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Barratt Developments plc develops and builds properties. The Group's UK Operations include the building of houses and housing complexes, general building and civil engineering services, participation in urban renewal and the development  of commercial properties.

The Berkeley Group Holdings PLC is a residential and commercial property development company focusing on urban regeneration and mixed-use developments. The Company purchases and develops land, in addition to constructing homes, and apartment complexes throughout the South of England, the Midlands, and the North West.

Persimmon plc designs, builds and develops residential housing.  The Company has regional branches in Yorkshire, the North East and North West, Scotland, the Midlands, Anglia, Wessex, Thames Valley, the South East, South Coast, South West and Wales.

Persimmon plc designs, develops, and builds residential housing units. The Company constructs residential homes ranging from studio apartments to executive family homes throughout the United Kingdom.

Barratt Developments plc develops and builds properties. The Group's UK operations include the building of houses and housing complexes, general building and civil engineering services, participation in urban renewal and the development of commercial properties.

Taylor Wimpey plc, through its subsidiaries, conducts business in the housing, construction and engineering, and property development and investment sectors. The Group has international housing activities in the United Kingdom and Spain.

Mattel, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets a broad variety of children's toy products on a worldwide basis.  The Company sells its products to retailers and directly to consumers.  Mattel's products include branded fashion dolls, infant and preschool products, toy cars, and electrical vehicles, among others.

Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, and manufactures off-road and on-road vehicles. The Company produces vehicles including snowmobiles, terrain vehicles, and motorcycles. Polaris Industries markets its products and related replacement parts and accessories through dealers and distributors located in the United States, Canada, and Europe.

YAMAHA CORPORATION mainly manufactures musical instruments, audio equipment, and golf equipment.  The Company also produces information & communication equipment and semiconductors.  Yamaha operates recreation business. The Company has many overseas subsidiaries.

Brunswick Corporation manufactures consumer products serving the outdoor and indoor active recreation markets.  The Company's products include sterndrives, outboard and inboard marine engines, fitness, billiards, bowling equipment. Brunswick also manufactures pleasure, fishing, and high performance boats.

SEGA SAMMY HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company established through the merger of Sega and Sammy.  The Group mainly develops and manufactures commercial-use video game machine, home-use video game software, and pachinko pinball machine. Sega Sammy Holdings also operates amusement parks.

The Thule Group AB manufactures bike racks, cargo carriers, and hitch solutions for vehicles. The Company also makes carry solutions for mobile and computer equipment, luggage and packs, RV accessories, and  trailers. The Thule Group offers products and services throughout the world.

Acushnet Holdings Corp. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes golf products. Acushnet Holdings sells its products primarily to on-course golf pro shops, selected off-course golf specialty and sporting goods stores, and other retailers worldwide.

BRP Inc. produces Ski-Doo snowmobiles, Sea-Doo personal watercraft, all-terrain vehicles and motorcycles including the three-wheeled Can-Am Spyder roadster as well as engines.

YETI Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes products for the outdoor and recreation markets. YETI Holdings offers coolers, seat cushions, beverage holders, security cable locks and brackets, bottles, t-shirts, caps, gear cases, tumblers, and tie-down kits. YETI Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Vista Outdoor Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets consumer products in the outdoor sports and recreation market . The Company has spun-off of Alliant Techsystems Inc.. Vista Outdoor Inc. operates in the United States.

Games Workshop Group Plc manufactures and retails tabletop war-game systems and associated miniatures. The Company operates approximately 250 stores and serves over 350 independent retailers in the United Kingdom. Games Workshop also has stores in North America, Continental Europe and Australia.

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Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250

I suggest having a look at the 888 holdings (888 LN) / Playtech Plc (PTEC LN) pair as a sector-neutral fundamental relative value bet with a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

UK Small/Midcap Fund Positioning Update

How are UK Small and Midcap equity funds positioned? We analyse the holdings of 106 actively managed UK strategies to find out.

Steven Holden

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

Pop Mart International IPO: Trading Debut

Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and opened 82% higher at HK$70.00 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250

I suggest having a look at the 888 holdings (888 LN) / Playtech Plc (PTEC LN) pair as a sector-neutral fundamental relative value bet with a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

UK Small/Midcap Fund Positioning Update

How are UK Small and Midcap equity funds positioned? We analyse the holdings of 106 actively managed UK strategies to find out.

Steven Holden

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

Pop Mart International IPO: Trading Debut

Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and opened 82% higher at HK$70.00 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price...

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250