Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>UK Industrials maintain top Sector weight. Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary underweights fund Technology overweight.</li>
<li>Investment Managers Industry group hits record exposure. REITs largely unloved by UK Small/Midcap funds.</li>
<li>Future plc remains the most widely held company. XPS Pensions and Foresight Group Holdings are the top overweights. B&amp;M, Weir Group and Rightmove lead the underweights.</li>
</ul>


UK Industrials maintain top Sector weight. Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary underweights fund Technology overweight.
Investment Managers Industry group hits record exposure. REITs largely unloved by UK Small/Midcap funds.
Future plc remains the most widely held company. XPS Pensions and Foresight Group Holdings are the top overweights. B&amp;M, Weir Group and Rightmove lead the underweights.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 <em>Int'l Compass</em> how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Pop Mart International Group L / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">POP MART (POP HK)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Pop Mart will commence trading on Friday, 11 December. Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and <a href="http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1062357/ipo-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opened 82% higher</a> at HK$70.00 in the grey market and last stood at $70.00.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-creditable-performance-in-tough-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45653" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times</a> we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45956" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that IPO price range is attractive.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$43.06 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price continues to provide good upside potential. </p></div></div></div>

POP MART (POP HK) is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Pop Mart will commence trading on Friday, 11 December. Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and opened 82% higher at HK$70.00 in the grey market and last stood at $70.00.In Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that IPO price range is attractive.Our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$43.06 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price continues to provide good upside potential. 

Pop Mart International IPO: Trading Debut

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">POP MART (POP HK)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</p></div><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$31.50-38.50 per share, Pop Mart will have a market cap of HK$43,519.8-53,190.8 million ($5.6-6.9 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$4,568.8 million ($589 million). </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-creditable-performance-in-tough-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45653" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times</a> we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range.</p></div></div></div>

POP MART (POP HK) is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.At the proposed IPO price range of HK$31.50-38.50 per share, Pop Mart will have a market cap of HK$43,519.8-53,190.8 million ($5.6-6.9 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$4,568.8 million ($589 million). In Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range.

Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights

United Kingdom

Games Workshop Group Plc manufactures and retails tabletop war-game systems and associated miniatures. The Company operates approximately 250 stores and serves over 350 independent retailers in the United Kingdom. Games Workshop also has stores in North America, Continental Europe and Australia.

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Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW LN)

UK Small/Midcap Fund Positioning Update

How are UK Small and Midcap equity funds positioned? We analyse the holdings of 106 actively managed UK strategies to find out.

Steven Holden

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

Pop Mart International IPO: Trading Debut

Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and opened 82% higher at HK$70.00 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price...

Arun George

Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights

At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$4,568.8 million ($589 million). Overall, we would participate in the IPO due...

Arun George

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