IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At first glance, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> and China TCM merger arb has little or no similarities regarding the region, precondition, sector, type of offeror, or offer structure.</li>
<li>The aftermath of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event risks. This has increased the Shinko spread. </li>
<li>Shinko’s tail event risk (no SAMR approval) remains low. Timing remains the primary risk, as a delay is possible. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 8.9%/29.2%.</li>
</ul>


At first glance, the Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) and China TCM merger arb has little or no similarities regarding the region, precondition, sector, type of offeror, or offer structure.
The aftermath of China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event risks. This has increased the Shinko spread. 
Shinko’s tail event risk (no SAMR approval) remains low. Timing remains the primary risk, as a delay is possible. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 8.9%/29.2%.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US semis and tech related setting a bullish tone for JP SPE with NVDA closing at record highs.</li>
<li>Steep drop for oil to hit Japex, Index and refiners while US P&amp;C strength should also be reflected in JP peers.</li>
<li>Possible downside for Fujitsu with NTT Docomo announcing a pivot away from their base station equipment.</li>
</ul>


US semis and tech related setting a bullish tone for JP SPE with NVDA closing at record highs.
Steep drop for oil to hit Japex, Index and refiners while US P&amp;C strength should also be reflected in JP peers.
Possible downside for Fujitsu with NTT Docomo announcing a pivot away from their base station equipment.


Japan Morning Connection: US Semis and Tech Set a Bullish Tone for Japan's SPE Majors

<ul>
<li>Strong tech rebound off the morning lows with AI related names starting to pick up favour again helped by good numbers from Oracle.</li>
<li>The hefty price tag for Sony's PS5 Pro is unlikely to appeal to casual gamers, but should still boost sales in the interim as a mid-cycle boost for the PlayStation.</li>
<li>Fujitsu's IR day yesterday sets an upbeat tone, but lacks catalysts which could help push the stock to new highs.</li>
</ul>


Strong tech rebound off the morning lows with AI related names starting to pick up favour again helped by good numbers from Oracle.
The hefty price tag for Sony's PS5 Pro is unlikely to appeal to casual gamers, but should still boost sales in the interim as a mid-cycle boost for the PlayStation.
Fujitsu's IR day yesterday sets an upbeat tone, but lacks catalysts which could help push the stock to new highs.


Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Towards AI May See Japan SPE Gains

<ul>
<li>Tech rebounds overnight led by AI related, although concerns weighing on China export names including ASML.</li>
<li>Oracle numbers beating after hours setting a positive tone for software as well as some SPE, with capex plans set to double YoY.</li>
<li>Nothing amazing from the Apple event likely to weigh on Japanese suppliers, although little expectation priced in. ARM and Softbank the big winners, with V9 chips running the new iPhones.</li>
</ul>


Tech rebounds overnight led by AI related, although concerns weighing on China export names including ASML.
Oracle numbers beating after hours setting a positive tone for software as well as some SPE, with capex plans set to double YoY.
Nothing amazing from the Apple event likely to weigh on Japanese suppliers, although little expectation priced in. ARM and Softbank the big winners, with V9 chips running the new iPhones.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".</li>
<li>Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a></strong>merger affects Japan steel sector.</li>
<li>Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.</li>
</ul>


BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".
Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)merger affects Japan steel sector.
Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.


JAPAN:  No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

Japan

Fujitsu Ltd manufactures semiconductor, computer, and communication equipment. The Company provides comprehensive information technology, network and telecommunication solutions, and Internet services.

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Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

The aftermath of the China TCM deal break has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: US Semis and Tech Set a Bullish Tone for Japan's SPE Majors

US semiconductors and tech related setting a bullish tone for JP SPE. Steep drop in oil to hit Japex, Index and refiners. Fujitsu may face downside...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Towards AI May See Japan SPE Gains

AI names gaining favor with Oracle's positive numbers. Sony's PS5 Pro may not attract casual gamers but could boost sales as a mid-cycle upgrade....

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

AI Tech rebound overnight. Oracle beats expectation setting positive tone for software. ARM and Softbank benefit with V9 chips in new iPhones.

Andrew Jackson

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

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