Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chailease is facing pressure in all of its markets, Taiwan, China and Asean, with no signs of easing.</li>
<li>High frequency data (HFD) from Chailease gives us April monthly numbers, with double digit  net profit decline and a greater EPS decline</li>
<li>Credit costs are now elevated at peak levels since early FY19 for the past two quarters, and we wonder if FY24 will see far higher figures, given economic weaknesses?</li>
</ul>


Chailease is facing pressure in all of its markets, Taiwan, China and Asean, with no signs of easing.
High frequency data (HFD) from Chailease gives us April monthly numbers, with double digit  net profit decline and a greater EPS decline
Credit costs are now elevated at peak levels since early FY19 for the past two quarters, and we wonder if FY24 will see far higher figures, given economic weaknesses?


Chailease - ROA Grinding Lower on Elevated Credit Costs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

China Development Financial / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2023 review.</li>
<li>I currently see 6 ADDs and 5 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.</li>
<li>The estimate for one-way flow in December 2023 is US$1.37bn.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2023 review.
I currently see 6 ADDs and 5 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
The estimate for one-way flow in December 2023 is US$1.37bn.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Sector-Neutral Trade Ideas for CDFHC and Far Eastern New Century

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

Taiwan

Chailease Holding Co Ltd provides financing services such as leasing, installment sale, import/export factoring and direct financing.

Yuanta Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Its main businesses include brokerage, margin financing, domestic and overseas issuance, financial and M&A advisory, primary listings, corporate financial, securities underwriting and placements, etc. The company also holds the leading position in the derivatives business.

Taiwan Acceptance Corp. provides car financing and leasing services.

Capital Securities Corp. conducts a securities firm business.  The Company acts as a broker, underwriter, and dealer for financial securities.  Capital also provides loans for margin transactions and transfer agent services for financial securities.

IBF Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company acts as a broker and dealer of short term bills, certifier, underwriter and guarantor of commercial papers, and broker for inter-bank call loans.  The Company also trades government bonds and provides financial consulting services.

President Securities Corp. is a securities firm which acts as a broker, dealer, and underwriter for financial securities.  The Company provides loans for margin trading and short selling.

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

Cathay Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides traditional life, health care, and accident insurances, as well as banking, security underwriting, and brokerage services.

Yuanta Futures Co Ltd works in the brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, as well as the provision of futures consultancy services. The Company's brokerage business includes domestic futures brokerage, domestic options brokerage and overseas futures brokerage services. Polaris proprietary trading business offers securities and futures trading and market maker

E.Sun Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides banking, brokerage and dealer services.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd. is currently engaged in life insurance; general insurance and consumer finance businesses and has plans to expand its business by offering a wide array of financial products and services in India. The Company is also active in wind-energy generation.

ORIX Corporation provides comprehensive financial services throughout the world. The Company's business lines include leasing, real estate loans, life insurance, banking, and consumer finance.  The Company also operates Environment related business and Private equity investment business. ORIX has a professional baseball team, the ORIX Buffalos.

Block, Inc. operates as a financial services and digital payments company. The Company develops a payments platform aimed at small and medium businesses that allows them to accept credit card payments and use tablet computers as payment registers for a point-of-sale system. Block also provides financial and marketing services.

FirstRand Limited is a portfolio of separately branded, integrated financial services businesses offering a universal set of transactional, lending, investment and insurance products and services in South Africa, certain markets in sub-Saharan Africa and the UK.

Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC) provides financial services. The Company raises money from the market through bonds and off-shores borrowings to finance the plan outlay of railways and other various developmental programs. IRFC serves customers in India. 

Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC IN)

Adyen N.V. provides payment solutions. The Company offers a platform that enable merchants and businesses to process payments online, mobile, and point-of-sale systems with payment methods including card schemes, mobile wallets, and other local methods. Adyen serves customers worldwide.

Rural Electrification Corporation Limited engages in the financing and promotion of transmission, distribution and generation projects in India. The Company provides funding to clients to assist them in formulating and implementing various types of power project-related schemes.

Power Finance Corporation funds power projects in India.  The Company serves state power utilities, central power sector utilities, power departments, private power sector utilities, joint sector power utilities, power equipment manufacturers, and municipal power utilities.

EXOR N.V. is a diversified holding company. The Company brings in finance for the development of its companies, to improve their competitive position and profitability, and maintains a constant dialogue with the top management of the companies in which it invests, while fully respecting their operating autonomy.

Fubon Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a financial holding company, formed through the merger of Fubon Insurance, Fubon Securities, Fubon Commercial Bank, and Fubon Life Assurance.

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Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT)

Chailease - ROA Grinding Lower on Elevated Credit Costs

Chailease shows major stresses in net profit in China and Asean, with declines also in Taiwan. Credit costs are incredibly elevated for past 2...

Daniel Tabbush

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

Screening for GEMs: March 2024

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Sector-Neutral Trade Ideas for CDFHC and Far Eastern New Century

TDIV Dec 23 Rebal: Next Monday (20th Nov) is the base date for the data used for the December 2023 review. With only four more trading days left...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

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