Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On 23 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fubon-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11869:1" rel="noopener">Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT)</a> reported that its Tender Offer for control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jih-sun-financial-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17971:1" rel="noopener">Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT)</a> was successful. 
This was, apparently, possibly a surprise, as local media suggested last week that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> had received an approach to buy their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jih-sun-financial-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17971:1" rel="noopener">Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT)</a> for NT$15/share - well above the NT$13/share that Fubon had bid.  A day before the close of the Tender Offer, internal directors at Jih Sun were apparently of the opinion Shinsei would not tender, however it appears the NT$13/share in hand was better than the $15/share which was still only indicative, so they sold. 
That leaves the squeezeout. 
As always, DETAILS MATTER.
If you intend to play the risk arb on the squeezeout of Jih Sun, beware the modalities and the timing.

On 23 March, Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT) reported that its Tender Offer for control of Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) was successful. 
This was, apparently, possibly a surprise, as local media suggested last week that Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) had received an approach to buy their stake in Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) for NT$15/share - well above the NT$13/share that Fubon had bid.   A day before the close of the Tender Offer, internal directors at Jih Sun were apparently of the opinion Shinsei would not tender, however it appears the NT$13/share in hand was better than the $15/share which was still only indicative, so they sold. 
That leaves the squeezeout. 
As always, DETAILS MATTER.
If you intend to play the risk arb on the squeezeout of Jih Sun, beware the modalities and the timing.

The Squeezeout of the Remaining 46% of Jih Sun Financial

Late on 23 March 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fubon-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11869:1" rel="noopener">Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT)</a> announced that it had purchased 2,030,999,369 shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jih-sun-financial-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17971:1" rel="noopener">Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT)</a> in the Tender Offer, exceeding the minimum purchase amount of 1,886,603,386 shares. 
It's done. Payment should be made within five business days (i.e. by March 30 2021).
It also means that one of the two large shareholders did not tender. 
And that starts a process.
We will find out between 24 March and 7 April who the large seller was. I expect we find out tomorrow through TDNet. Watch for a possible revision to annual forecast from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>. 
As a reminder of the associated origin story, I recommend reading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46544" rel="noopener">2021 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank</a> followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-update-shinsei-bank-float-squeeze-to-mitigate-near-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48989" rel="noopener">2021 High Conviction Update - Shinsei Bank Float Squeeze to Mitigate Near-Term</a> though at this point (the stock is up 50% since I wrote in late December) one can wait for confirmation of the tender sale.

Late on 23 March 2021, Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT) announced that it had purchased 2,030,999,369 shares of Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) in the Tender Offer, exceeding the minimum purchase amount of 1,886,603,386 shares. 
It's done. Payment should be made within five business days (i.e. by March 30 2021).
It also means that one of the two large shareholders did not tender. 
And that starts a process.
We will find out between 24 March and 7 April who the large seller was. I expect we find out tomorrow through TDNet. Watch for a possible revision to annual forecast from Shinsei Bank (8303 JP). 
As a reminder of the associated origin story, I recommend reading 2021 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank followed by 2021 High Conviction Update - Shinsei Bank Float Squeeze to Mitigate Near-Term though at this point (the stock is up 50% since I wrote in late December) one can wait for confirmation of the tender sale. 

Jih Sun Tender Offer Successful - Now the Squeezeout

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardines, Xiaomi, Tilt Renew, Kumho Petro, Kunlun Energy, Takeei/Rever

The Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jih-sun-financial-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17971:1" rel="noopener">Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fubon-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11869:1" rel="noopener">Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT)</a> closes on 23 March. The original close was 1 February but a 50-day extension was granted as requested, to 23 March. In Taiwan, Tender Offers are for a minimum of 20 days and a maximum of 50 days, and an extension can be granted for 50 days. There are further extensions possible for "reasonable cause" upon application to the FSC, but it is not clear that exists in this case. I expect if Fubon wants it, the FSC would be inclined to grant it. There appears to be substantial regulatory support for the deal as a first among what may be many such future financial holding company consolidations. But there remain questions as to whether this gets done or not.

The Tender Offer for Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) by Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT) closes on 23 March. The original close was 1 February but a 50-day extension was granted as requested, to 23 March. In Taiwan, Tender Offers are for a minimum of 20 days and a maximum of 50 days, and an extension can be granted for 50 days. There are further extensions possible for "reasonable cause" upon application to the FSC, but it is not clear that exists in this case. I expect if Fubon wants it, the FSC would be inclined to grant it. There appears to be substantial regulatory support for the deal as a first among what may be many such future financial holding company consolidations. But there remain questions as to whether this gets done or not. 

Equity Bottom-Up

11 weeks ago yesterday, for the end of 2020, I published my report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46544" rel="noopener">2021 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank</a> idea. Since the close of the next day, the shares are up 46.7%. A large part of that performance has been due to the rise in the TOPIX Bank Index - up 26.7% in the same period. Much of that move has occurred in the past five weeks as The Great Rotation, driven by higher rates, a steeper curve, and inflationary expectations, has propelled last year's losers to this year's winners, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a>, SaaS stocks, junk stocks, and others have underperformed. But there were a couple of other bits in the story too. A buyback, an asset sale, and understanding of the float dynamics given the over-arching goal of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> and its shareholders is to be able to get the government out of its shares (and accompanying oversight) it purchased in March 2000. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/193/195/original/Screenshot+2021-03-10+at+1.09.10+AM.png?1615309764" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="193195"></figure></section>This insight provides a brief update to those inputs.

11 weeks ago yesterday, for the end of 2020, I published my report 2021 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank idea. Since the close of the next day, the shares are up 46.7%. A large part of that performance has been due to the rise in the TOPIX Bank Index - up 26.7% in the same period. Much of that move has occurred in the past five weeks as The Great Rotation, driven by higher rates, a steeper curve, and inflationary expectations, has propelled last year's losers to this year's winners, and Tesla Motors (TSLA US), SaaS stocks, junk stocks, and others have underperformed. But there were a couple of other bits in the story too. A buyback, an asset sale, and understanding of the float dynamics given the over-arching goal of Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) and its shareholders is to be able to get the government out of its shares (and accompanying oversight) it purchased in March 2000. This insight provides a brief update to those inputs.

2021 High Conviction Update - Shinsei Bank Float Squeeze to Mitigate Near-Term

Taiwan

Chailease Holding Co Ltd provides financing services such as leasing, installment sale, import/export factoring and direct financing.

Yuanta Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Its main businesses include brokerage, margin financing, domestic and overseas issuance, financial and M&A advisory, primary listings, corporate financial, securities underwriting and placements, etc. The company also holds the leading position in the derivatives business.

Taiwan Acceptance Corp. provides car financing and leasing services.

Capital Securities Corp. conducts a securities firm business.  The Company acts as a broker, underwriter, and dealer for financial securities.  Capital also provides loans for margin transactions and transfer agent services for financial securities.

IBF Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company acts as a broker and dealer of short term bills, certifier, underwriter and guarantor of commercial papers, and broker for inter-bank call loans.  The Company also trades government bonds and provides financial consulting services.

President Securities Corp. is a securities firm which acts as a broker, dealer, and underwriter for financial securities.  The Company provides loans for margin trading and short selling.

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

Cathay Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides traditional life, health care, and accident insurances, as well as banking, security underwriting, and brokerage services.

Yuanta Futures Co Ltd works in the brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, as well as the provision of futures consultancy services. The Company's brokerage business includes domestic futures brokerage, domestic options brokerage and overseas futures brokerage services. Polaris proprietary trading business offers securities and futures trading and market maker

E.Sun Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides banking, brokerage and dealer services.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd. is currently engaged in life insurance; general insurance and consumer finance businesses and has plans to expand its business by offering a wide array of financial products and services in India. The Company is also active in wind-energy generation.

ORIX Corporation provides comprehensive financial services throughout the world. The Company's business lines include leasing, real estate loans, life insurance, banking, and consumer finance.  The Company also operates Environment related business and Private equity investment business. ORIX has a professional baseball team, the ORIX Buffalos.

Block, Inc. operates as a financial services and digital payments company. The Company develops a payments platform aimed at small and medium businesses that allows them to accept credit card payments and use tablet computers as payment registers for a point-of-sale system. Block also provides financial and marketing services.

FirstRand Limited is a portfolio of separately branded, integrated financial services businesses offering a universal set of transactional, lending, investment and insurance products and services in South Africa, certain markets in sub-Saharan Africa and the UK.

Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC) provides financial services. The Company raises money from the market through bonds and off-shores borrowings to finance the plan outlay of railways and other various developmental programs. IRFC serves customers in India. 

Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC IN)

Adyen N.V. provides payment solutions. The Company offers a platform that enable merchants and businesses to process payments online, mobile, and point-of-sale systems with payment methods including card schemes, mobile wallets, and other local methods. Adyen serves customers worldwide.

Rural Electrification Corporation Limited engages in the financing and promotion of transmission, distribution and generation projects in India. The Company provides funding to clients to assist them in formulating and implementing various types of power project-related schemes.

Power Finance Corporation funds power projects in India.  The Company serves state power utilities, central power sector utilities, power departments, private power sector utilities, joint sector power utilities, power equipment manufacturers, and municipal power utilities.

EXOR N.V. is a diversified holding company. The Company brings in finance for the development of its companies, to improve their competitive position and profitability, and maintains a constant dialogue with the top management of the companies in which it invests, while fully respecting their operating autonomy.

Fubon Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a financial holding company, formed through the merger of Fubon Insurance, Fubon Securities, Fubon Commercial Bank, and Fubon Life Assurance.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT)

The Squeezeout of the Remaining 46% of Jih Sun Financial

Fubon Financial won the deal on a last minute tender by Shinsei. Now it is procedure requiring shareholder votes which are a done deal and FSC...

Travis Lundy

Jih Sun Tender Offer Successful - Now the Squeezeout

Fubon deal for Jih Sun (5820) successful. It looks like Shinsei sold. Confirmation should come at earliest on 24 March, at latest about 10bd from...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardines, Xiaomi, Tilt Renew, Kumho Petro, Kunlun Energy, Takeei/Rever

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Jih Sun Financial Deal Down To The Wire

Fubon deal for Jih Sun comes down to the wire. Extension is possible but there is no word from either of the two big holders. Jih Sun trades at...

Travis Lundy

2021 High Conviction Update - Shinsei Bank Float Squeeze to Mitigate Near-Term

Shinsei Bank has performed dramatically well in the last 11 weeks since the High Conviction Idea. A lot of that has been float compression. Some of...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)