Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

The lack of proper correlation between other major markets and those in China still stands out.As others markets look concerning, the Shanghai Composite is starting to look constructive again, at least in the near term.In addition, the FTSE China A50 index is also turning up after holding key levels. Considering it is already 16% off the year’s high, it really is a different picture to many other equity indices around the world.

The lack of proper correlation between other major markets and those in China still stands out.As others markets look concerning, the Shanghai Composite is starting to look constructive again, at least in the near term.In addition, the FTSE China A50 index is also turning up after holding key levels. Considering it is already 16% off the year’s high, it really is a different picture to many other equity indices around the world.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Inflation Figures Are Wrong: The daily information be reported on inflation is simply wrong. There is actually an awful lot of inflation, and because central banks are controlling the narrative, we find the that the numbers are not being reported correctly. If energy, food, and housing costs are excluded from inflation reports, then inflation measurements are just wrong to begin with. Certainly, as consumers, we’d like to not be responsible for paying for food, energy, and housing; and*Stimulus Keeps Coming: 1Q21 GDP amounted to 6.4%, and 2Q21 GDP will be further boosted by the third round of stimulus checks. 1H21 should be boosted further by an expanded child tax care credit - becoming the fourth stimulus check of USD 110 bn - arguably even more effective if these monthly payments become a permanent source of income under President Biden’s tax plan. Infrastructure plan discussions are ongoing, and our belief is that nearly USD 2 tn in spending will be approved by Congress in late 1H21. The risk of a zero-to-negative GDP quarter for 1Q22 now becomes significant.

*Inflation Figures Are Wrong: The daily information be reported on inflation is simply wrong. There is actually an awful lot of inflation, and because central banks are controlling the narrative, we find the that the numbers are not being reported correctly. If energy, food, and housing costs are excluded from inflation reports, then inflation measurements are just wrong to begin with. Certainly, as consumers, we’d like to not be responsible for paying for food, energy, and housing; and*Stimulus Keeps Coming: 1Q21 GDP amounted to 6.4%, and 2Q21 GDP will be further boosted by the third round of stimulus checks. 1H21 should be boosted further by an expanded child tax care credit - becoming the fourth stimulus check of USD 110 bn - arguably even more effective if these monthly payments become a permanent source of income under President Biden’s tax plan. Infrastructure plan discussions are ongoing, and our belief is that nearly USD 2 tn in spending will be approved by Congress in late 1H21. The risk of a zero-to-negative GDP quarter for 1Q22 now becomes significant.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

SPX 4,180 is pivot support for the US cycle and risk inflections in Europe and Asia.  Backing off of 4,205 projection with risk of profit taking ahead of the long weekend is the game plan. RTY and DJI favored shorts with NDX the stronger horse to buy a pullback.A 50 long from 16,500 and add call above 17,700 is playing out nicely and we outlined dip support ahead of reaching for the 19,000 target.Asia short conviction in Japan, Taiwan and Korea.Europe is teetering at DAX and SX5E dual highs for a break or harder pullback sequence with the later favored. DAX is already showing signs of a top failure and typically leads the Eurostoxx 50. MIB is our focus short at 25k. European banks are the sleeper short for a crowded positioning shakeout.

SPX 4,180 is pivot support for the US cycle and risk inflections in Europe and Asia.  Backing off of 4,205 projection with risk of profit taking ahead of the long weekend is the game plan. RTY and DJI favored shorts with NDX the stronger horse to buy a pullback.A 50 long from 16,500 and add call above 17,700 is playing out nicely and we outlined dip support ahead of reaching for the 19,000 target.Asia short conviction in Japan, Taiwan and Korea.Europe is teetering at DAX and SX5E dual highs for a break or harder pullback sequence with the later favored. DAX is already showing signs of a top failure and typically leads the Eurostoxx 50. MIB is our focus short at 25k. European banks are the sleeper short for a crowded positioning shakeout.

Trade Levels in Asia and the Risk Pivot in SPX

Rejection at the underside of the SPX broken wedge trendline will define the speed of the next down leg in Asia. Bear momentum below 4,150/40 would place greater odds of a harder pullback.Long bets: ASX and A50 with HSCEI next in line (for now a relative long)Short bets: Taiwan, Nikkei, Korea with India flirting with the 15k pivot. Taiwan and Nikkei are the conviction short bets to recycle while a weak bounce off of trendline makes Korea the next short target.A more volatile cycle is due in late May.

Rejection at the underside of the SPX broken wedge trendline will define the speed of the next down leg in Asia. Bear momentum below 4,150/40 would place greater odds of a harder pullback.Long bets: ASX and A50 with HSCEI next in line (for now a relative long)Short bets: Taiwan, Nikkei, Korea with India flirting with the 15k pivot. Taiwan and Nikkei are the conviction short bets to recycle while a weak bounce off of trendline makes Korea the next short target.A more volatile cycle is due in late May.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Technical Analysis

China A shares remains a bullish bet on dips and able to weather speed bumps in the global cycle.Our HK short is meeting downside targets where we want to layer out of our short and into a long for a tactical bounce cycle but the macro picture remains dim.Taiwan call to transition from long to short at the top of the rising wedge is unfolding. We like building a short into the outlined top zone. Taiwan was the next line to short/roll over following leads in Nikkei, HK, India.Weakening signals and breadth splinters in Asia a warning for a bigger cycle peak brewing in the global cycle.

China A shares remains a bullish bet on dips and able to weather speed bumps in the global cycle.Our HK short is meeting downside targets where we want to layer out of our short and into a long for a tactical bounce cycle but the macro picture remains dim.Taiwan call to transition from long to short at the top of the rising wedge is unfolding. We like building a short into the outlined top zone. Taiwan was the next line to short/roll over following leads in Nikkei, HK, India.Weakening signals and breadth splinters in Asia a warning for a bigger cycle peak brewing in the global cycle.

Hong Kong Short Reduce - Taiwan Add to Short on Strength

China

The FTSE China A50 Index includes the largest 50 A Share Chinese companies by total market cap. 

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)

China Equities – Time for a Rebound?

China Indices are starting to look constructive again in the near term. Important levels and setups are highlighted here

Shyam Devani

The Fix Is In

US ECONOMY: Reported inflation is simply wrong, as central banks control the narrative. In addition, 2H21 should be boosted by an expanded child...

Thomas J. Monaco

Trade Levels in Asia and the Risk Pivot in SPX

A 50 long from 16,500 and add call above 17,700 is playing out nicely and we outlined dip support ahead of reaching for the 19,000 target. SPX...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia Long/Short Trades

Long bets: ASX and A50 with HSCEI next in line (for now a relative long) Short bets: Taiwan, Nikkei, Korea with India flirting with the 15k pivot....

Thomas Schroeder

Hong Kong Short Reduce - Taiwan Add to Short on Strength

HK short is meeting downside targets to turn from short to long - tactical bounce cycle but the macro picture remains dim. Taiwan call to...

Thomas Schroeder