Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.
Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

<ul>
<li>Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.</li>
<li>We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.</li>
<li>Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.</li>
</ul>


Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.
We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.
Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.


Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

<ul>
<li>The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.</li>
<li>Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.</li>
</ul>


The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.
Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.


Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes are approaching critical support levels, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the DJIA. These are our "lines-in-the-sand" moving forward.</li>
<li>We expect for supports to hold, but breakdowns below these levels would not be surprising and would likely mean an additional 8-15% downside based on measured moves.</li>
<li>Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, QQQ, DJIA, Bitcoin, XLP, XLU, IWM, IJR, BKNG, EXPE, SABR, DESP, NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, RGLD, GFI, SBSW, and AU.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes are approaching critical support levels, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the DJIA. These are our "lines-in-the-sand" moving forward.
We expect for supports to hold, but breakdowns below these levels would not be surprising and would likely mean an additional 8-15% downside based on measured moves.
Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, QQQ, DJIA, Bitcoin, XLP, XLU, IWM, IJR, BKNG, EXPE, SABR, DESP, NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, RGLD, GFI, SBSW, and AU.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA Testing Support; Buying Gold Miners and Online Travel

<p>We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports our bullish outlook is the continued lack of breakdowns on all S&amp;P 500 Sectors and all the major averages. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Copper, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium Mining.</p>

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports our bullish outlook is the continued lack of breakdowns on all S&amp;P 500 Sectors and all the major averages. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Copper, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium Mining.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Materials To Overweight

Canada

Franco-Nevada Corporation is a resource royalty and investment company. The Company owns a diversified portfolio of precious and base metal royalties, oil and natural gas royalties and other interests, including assets in production, under development or in the exploration phase mostly located in geopolitically secure countries.

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Franco-Nevada (FNV CN)

Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

Crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the...

Vermilion Research

Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

#Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance....

Vermilion Research

Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

Commodity prices remain in a secular bull market, and now even gold is joining the rally. This is bullish for global metals/mining stocks (precious...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA Testing Support; Buying Gold Miners and Online Travel

Large-cap indexes are approaching critical support levels of 4257 on S&P 500, $334 on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on DJIA. These are our "lines in...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Materials To Overweight

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports...

Vermilion Research

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