Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A highly unpopular acquisition driving investors and sell-side analysts up the wall. Forward Air is OVERSOLD on almost all technical indicators and valuations are the lowest in its history  </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests it is not all that bad, the business will still be profitable and generate positive free cash flow </li>
<li>Our fair value of USD59.50 (+97% UPSIDE) is derived by 2x current Book Value. A potential double-bagger, will be rewarding for the patient investors     </li>
</ul>


A highly unpopular acquisition driving investors and sell-side analysts up the wall. Forward Air is OVERSOLD on almost all technical indicators and valuations are the lowest in its history  
Our analysis suggests it is not all that bad, the business will still be profitable and generate positive free cash flow 
Our fair value of USD59.50 (+97% UPSIDE) is derived by 2x current Book Value. A potential double-bagger, will be rewarding for the patient investors     


Forward Air (FWRD US | BUY | TP:USD59.5): A Toad, but There Is a Prince Inside

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. </li>
<li>The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. </li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. 
The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Overearning Short Candidates: Builders FirstSource, IBM, Forward Air Co, Deere & Co.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.</li>
<li>We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming</li>
<li>Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.</li>
</ul>


Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.
We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming
Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.


Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

Our long-term bullish outlook remains intact. The weight of the evidence still points to further upside, allowing, of course, for occasional backing and filling. That said, we are selective about new buy recommendations.  In today’s report we provide a recap of our investment thesis and sector weightings, and highlight actionable ideas within cyclical Groups, including Air Freight &amp; Logistics, Truckers, and Paper &amp; Packaging.

Our long-term bullish outlook remains intact. The weight of the evidence still points to further upside, allowing, of course, for occasional backing and filling. That said, we are selective about new buy recommendations.  In today’s report we provide a recap of our investment thesis and sector weightings, and highlight actionable ideas within cyclical Groups, including Air Freight &amp; Logistics, Truckers, and Paper &amp; Packaging.

United States

Forward Air Corporation provides transportation services to air freight forwarders, air cargo carriers, and domestic and international airlines.  The Company also operates a truckload business that is an irregular route, high service-level carrier that transports a wide range of commodities in both interstate and intrastate commerce.

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Forward Air (FWRD US)