Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Capital market veteran with 22 years experience with stints as an analyst (sell-side & buyside), investor relations and fund manager. 

My key expertise in the aviation sector. My definition of "aviation" includes airlines, travel tours, airports, airport retail & services, OEMs, online travel agents, aircraft lessors, air cargo/logistics, etc.   

I have an active watchlist consisting 190 companies across 41 countries. The aviation sector is highly cyclical and I am constantly evaluating signals to uncover attractive trade opportunities.

Updated Accretion/Dilution Math & Thoughts Post Omni Agreement

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A highly unpopular acquisition driving investors and sell-side analysts up the wall. Forward Air is <strong>OVERSOLD</strong> on almost all technical indicators and valuations are the lowest in its history  </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests it is not all that bad, the business will still be profitable and generate positive free cash flow </li>
<li>Our fair value of USD59.50 <strong>(+97% UPSIDE) </strong>is derived by 2x current Book Value. A potential double-bagger, will be rewarding for the patient investors     </li>
</ul>


A highly unpopular acquisition driving investors and sell-side analysts up the wall. Forward Air is OVERSOLD on almost all technical indicators and valuations are the lowest in its history  
Our analysis suggests it is not all that bad, the business will still be profitable and generate positive free cash flow 
Our fair value of USD59.50 (+97% UPSIDE) is derived by 2x current Book Value. A potential double-bagger, will be rewarding for the patient investors     


Forward Air (FWRD US | BUY | TP:USD59.5): A Toad, but There Is a Prince Inside