Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Monthly high frequency data from Taiwan's banks shows strong profit acceleration through May YTD, which will include insurance investment gains for some</li>
<li>This can be driven by accelerating loan growth to technology companies, to related companies, indirectly and may explain in part, Taiwan's leading loan growth rate vs other countries</li>
<li>Credit metrics and net profit growth can be supported for Taiwan's banks by a sector focus that differs from many others in the region and the world</li>
</ul>


Monthly high frequency data from Taiwan's banks shows strong profit acceleration through May YTD, which will include insurance investment gains for some
This can be driven by accelerating loan growth to technology companies, to related companies, indirectly and may explain in part, Taiwan's leading loan growth rate vs other countries
Credit metrics and net profit growth can be supported for Taiwan's banks by a sector focus that differs from many others in the region and the world


Taiwan Banks - HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 24th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD100.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Asustek Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen Marine, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai, Yang Ming Marine, Pharmaessentia.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 24th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD100.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Asustek Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen Marine, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai, Yang Ming Marine, Pharmaessentia.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 24th): Asustek Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen Marine

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fair value gains are the single most important driver of good net profit at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-s-town-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4136:1" rel="noopener">King's Town Bank (2809 TT)</a> in the most recent quarter.</li>
<li>Monthly revenue figures show strong 179% growth YoY in September, which we can see before any 3Q23 release.</li>
<li>Credit costs rose from 43bps to 83bps of loans from 1Q23 to 2Q23, which is a significant increase, may be more reflective of underlying operations.</li>
</ul>


Fair value gains are the single most important driver of good net profit at King's Town Bank (2809 TT) in the most recent quarter.
Monthly revenue figures show strong 179% growth YoY in September, which we can see before any 3Q23 release.
Credit costs rose from 43bps to 83bps of loans from 1Q23 to 2Q23, which is a significant increase, may be more reflective of underlying operations.


King's Town Bank - Net Profit +NTD697m Vs Fair Value Gains +NTD2,004m, Core Items All Worsening

Taishin Financial Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The monthly profit figures at Taishin are rising substantially, suggesting a strong 2Q23</li>
<li>Taishin's LDR had declined dramatically in 1Q23, monthly figures may suggest expansion</li>
<li>With declining credit costs, to match lower NPLs, the outlook for Taishin's profit is strong</li>
</ul>


The monthly profit figures at Taishin are rising substantially, suggesting a strong 2Q23
Taishin's LDR had declined dramatically in 1Q23, monthly figures may suggest expansion
With declining credit costs, to match lower NPLs, the outlook for Taishin's profit is strong


Taishin - Monthly Profit Surge at +253% in May Suggests Strong Quarterly Numbers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Taiwan

E.Sun Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides banking, brokerage and dealer services.

Taiwan Cooperative Financial Holding, through subsidiaries, offers financial services.  The Company offers commercial banking, asset management, bills finance, and securities brokerage services.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking, savings, trust, and international banking businesses. In addition, the Group also provides insurance services and acts as a dealer, broker, and underwriter for financial securities.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co Ltd. (2880 TT)

SinoPac Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company, formed through Bank SinoPac and SinoPac Securities.

Taishin Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking business, such as deposits, loans, discount bills, guarantees, remittances, and foreign exchange transactions.

China Development Financial Holding Corporation is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides industrial banking and trust services, including direct investment, corporate lending, underwriting, corporate finance and advise, asset management, and securities trading.

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, issues financial debentures, provides medium and long term loans to enterprises, as well as provides brokerage, dealer and insurance services.

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank provides a broad range of financial services.  The Bank's operations include deposits, short-term and mid-term loans, discount bills, securities brokerage, foreign currency transactions, and trust banking.

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank, Ltd. provides commercial banking services with a global presence. The Bank attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate a variety of loans. SCSB supports businesses by providing trade financing and foreign exchange services.

Taiwan Business Bank provides financing services to small and medium businesses. The Bank invests in government bonds, short-term bills, corporate bonds, and financial debentures.  Taiwan Business Bank also offers services of remittance, acceptance, guarantee, foreign exchange, and letter of credit.

Bank of the Philippine Islands, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking services. The Company's products includes ATM, debit card system, credit card, electronic cash card, internet platform and other services.

BDO Unibank Inc provides banking services. The Bank offers saving accounts, investment, loans, credit and debit cards, remittance, insurance, and trade financing services. BDO Unibank serves customers in Philippines.

Canara Bank Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities.

Union Bank of India Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Company's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury and NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Union Bank has an online tele-banking facility for all its core banking customers.

Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam provides commercial banking services. The Company offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, guarantees, and trade finance for customers, corporate, and financial institutions. Bank for Investment also offers foreign exchange, money market, derivatives, and debt market services.

Bank of Nanjing Co., Ltd. operates commercial banking businesses. The Company offers deposits, loans, settlement, discounting, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting, bank guarantee, and other related financial services. Bank of Nanjing provides services for enterprises and individuals.

YES BANK Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, trade finance, corporate, and business banking services. YES BANK serves the food and agribusiness, life sciences, healthcare, biotechnology, telecommunications, media, information technology, and infrastructure development industries in India.

IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

Shinkin Central Bank is a central bank for shinkin banks nationwide, operating as a cooperative financial institution.  The Bank has developed businesses in a variety of fields that contribute the shinkin banking industry.  The Bank's services include enhancement of the credit standing, efficient use of shikin bank's surplus funds, and settlement of domestic exchange transaction.

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

First Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, provides loans and discount, letters of credit, and guarantee services, invests in marketable securities, provides securities brokerage and investment services, as well as provides insurance services.

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First Financial Holding Co (2892 TT)

Taiwan Banks - HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth

Taiwan's banks may be unique with reasonable tech exposure, a possible driver for some of the best loan volume anywhere, with strong credit...

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 24th): Asustek Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen Marine

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Asustek Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

King's Town Bank - Net Profit +NTD697m Vs Fair Value Gains +NTD2,004m, Core Items All Worsening

King's Town Bank is seeing earnings driven only by Fair Value Gains. Its net interest income, net fee income, operating costs, are worsening....

Daniel Tabbush

Taishin - Monthly Profit Surge at +253% in May Suggests Strong Quarterly Numbers

Monthly profit figures are provided by Taiwan's banks, and the growth for Taishin in April and May has been incredibly strong, suggesting a very...

Daniel Tabbush

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

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