Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals this week: NBIOs for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-fleet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13984:1" rel="noopener">SG Fleet (SGF AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-new-energy-g" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6927:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy  (1250 HK)</a>'s MGO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> also suspended.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samty-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43711:1" rel="noopener">SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals this week: NBIOs for SG Fleet (SGF AU) and AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU); and Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy  (1250 HK)'s MGO. Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) also suspended.
Key updates/news took place on: Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU), Capitol Health (CAJ AU), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) and SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP).



Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SG Fleet, Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy, HPI, Capitol Health, Henlius, 7 & I

Travis Lundy

Shin Kong Financial Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After rumours were rekindled a week earlier, on 22 August 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> announced they would merge.</li>
<li>The ratio is 0.6022 shares of Taishin for every share of Shin Kong putting NEWCO assets at about the level of Taiwan #3 CTBC Financial. That's bad.</li>
<li>There's history here. LOTS of history. This would need approvals from the FSC and FTC, but CTBC is already a spoiner, and the SKFH Board Meeting was anything but clean.</li>
</ul>


After rumours were rekindled a week earlier, on 22 August 2024, Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced they would merge.
The ratio is 0.6022 shares of Taishin for every share of Shin Kong putting NEWCO assets at about the level of Taiwan #3 CTBC Financial. That's bad.
There's history here. LOTS of history. This would need approvals from the FSC and FTC, but CTBC is already a spoiner, and the SKFH Board Meeting was anything but clean.


Shin Kong (2888.TW) And Taishin (2887.TW) Agree to Merge, But It Isn't Clean, And It's A Bad Price

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit</li>
<li>The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  </li>
<li>We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning </li>
</ul>


Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit
The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  
We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning 


Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Equity Bottom-Up

The Shanghai Commerical & Sa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Wildly improving credit metrics, with NPL coverage now at 1,144% in 1Q23</li>
<li>Core net interest income is strong for past 3 quarters, now at +31% YoY</li>
<li>Key line item deltas can continue, suggesting ROA to surpass 1.0% soon</li>
</ul>


Wildly improving credit metrics, with NPL coverage now at 1,144% in 1Q23
Core net interest income is strong for past 3 quarters, now at +31% YoY
Key line item deltas can continue, suggesting ROA to surpass 1.0% soon


The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank - Far Stronger Credit Metrics, 31% Net Interest Income Growth

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 22nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Mitac, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry, First Financial, Eva Airways, Yageo, Ta Chen Stainless Pipe.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 22nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Mitac, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry, First Financial, Eva Airways, Yageo, Ta Chen Stainless Pipe.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Nov 22nd): Mitac, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, First Financial

Taiwan

Taishin Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking business, such as deposits, loans, discount bills, guarantees, remittances, and foreign exchange transactions.

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Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)

Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SG Fleet, Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy, HPI, Capitol Health, Henlius, 7 & I

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Shin Kong (2888.TW) And Taishin (2887.TW) Agree to Merge, But It Isn't Clean, And It's A Bad Price

Shin Kong Financial and Taishin Financial have agreed to merge, but the Board decision and price aren't pretty. Looks a bit like a coup. And CTBC...

Travis Lundy

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank - Far Stronger Credit Metrics, 31% Net Interest Income Growth

Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank shows 31% net interest income growth YoY in 1Q23 and dramatically lower credit costs. It is likely to see ROA...

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Nov 22nd): Mitac, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, First Financial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Mitac, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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