Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully put out the fire at the old exchange building in Copenhagen..</li><li>Markets have started the week off where they left last week, with the USD wrecking ball continuing to prevail, posing headwinds for equity and fixed income markets as Fed pricing has more or less turned upside down lately.</li><li>We generally positioned for this repricing of USD fixed income, but were caught wrongfooted in a few trades along the way admittedly.</li></ul>

Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully put out the fire at the old exchange building in Copenhagen..Markets have started the week off where they left last week, with the USD wrecking ball continuing to prevail, posing headwinds for equity and fixed income markets as Fed pricing has more or less turned upside down lately.We generally positioned for this repricing of USD fixed income, but were caught wrongfooted in a few trades along the way admittedly.

Positioning Watch – Volatility Is Back, but Markets Still Lean into USD Duration.. God Knows Why..

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.</li>
<li>Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.</li>
<li>Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports <em>that are currently being tested</em> would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.


The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

<ul>
<li>Happy Monday, and welcome to our weekly positioning update!Markets seem to be back to normal dynamics, with US indices slowly drifting higher with S&amp;P 500 passing the historic 5000 USD level, despite most economic data prints surprising to the upside, almost forcing risk-asset investors to believe that the economy has survived higher interest rates for good.</li>
<li>Although rates traders have made what looks like a u-turn in the # of cuts priced in for 2024, the promise from central bankers that policy rates will come down has been anchored in expectations, and the cocktail of slightly better than expected economic data and the perception that central bankers will cut interest rates (albeit slightly slower) anyway produces a perfect environment for risk assets to perform and drift higher.</li>
<li>With USD liquidity looking to continue its upward trajectory, equities are still a buy given the current narrative – momentum is king.</li>
</ul>


Happy Monday, and welcome to our weekly positioning update!Markets seem to be back to normal dynamics, with US indices slowly drifting higher with S&amp;P 500 passing the historic 5000 USD level, despite most economic data prints surprising to the upside, almost forcing risk-asset investors to believe that the economy has survived higher interest rates for good.
Although rates traders have made what looks like a u-turn in the # of cuts priced in for 2024, the promise from central bankers that policy rates will come down has been anchored in expectations, and the cocktail of slightly better than expected economic data and the perception that central bankers will cut interest rates (albeit slightly slower) anyway produces a perfect environment for risk assets to perform and drift higher.
With USD liquidity looking to continue its upward trajectory, equities are still a buy given the current narrative – momentum is king.


Positioning Watch – Has the Sudden Change in Rates Pricing Changed Positioning?

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul>
<li>The recent performance of the US economy prompts a reassessment of long-held market sentiments.</li>
<li>As we witness an intersection of sturdy growth, moderating inflation, and evolving liquidity dynamics, investors and policymakers alike stand at a crossroads.</li>
<li>This month’s ‘Macro Regime Indicator’ questions the endurance of the current (US) economic strength and its implications for inflation and asset allocation.</li>
</ul>


The recent performance of the US economy prompts a reassessment of long-held market sentiments.
As we witness an intersection of sturdy growth, moderating inflation, and evolving liquidity dynamics, investors and policymakers alike stand at a crossroads.
This month’s ‘Macro Regime Indicator’ questions the endurance of the current (US) economic strength and its implications for inflation and asset allocation.


Macro Regime Indicator: Time to Embrace a New Economic Dawn?

United States

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The Fund's objective is to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond to the performance of The Financial Select Sector.  The Index includes financial services firms whose business' range from investment management to commercial & business banking.

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Financial Select Sector SPDR F (XLF US)

Positioning Watch – Volatility Is Back, but Markets Still Lean into USD Duration.. God Knows Why..

Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully...

Steno Research

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Has the Sudden Change in Rates Pricing Changed Positioning?

Happy Monday, and welcome to our weekly positioning update! Markets seem to be back to normal dynamics, with US indices slowly drifting higher with...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: Time to Embrace a New Economic Dawn?

The recent performance of the US economy prompts a reassessment of long-held market sentiments. As we witness an intersection of sturdy growth,...

Steno Research

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