Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. </li>
<li>More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. </li>
<li>The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. </li>
</ul>


About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. 
More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. 
The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. 


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

<ul>
<li>So far, 10 regional banks have upgraded guidance since Q1 results. One of them (Iyogin) twice. The average gain is +71.7% vs original H1 guidance (if we count Iyogin once).</li>
<li>This week will be the big push for new guidance ahead of a flood earnings reports the following week. Election results will cause concern, and the BOJ meets Thursday.</li>
<li>I expect a move in December (positive for banks), but it may be US Fed and $/¥-dependent. In the meantime banks enjoy tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


So far, 10 regional banks have upgraded guidance since Q1 results. One of them (Iyogin) twice. The average gain is +71.7% vs original H1 guidance (if we count Iyogin once).
This week will be the big push for new guidance ahead of a flood earnings reports the following week. Election results will cause concern, and the BOJ meets Thursday.
I expect a move in December (positive for banks), but it may be US Fed and $/¥-dependent. In the meantime banks enjoy tailwinds.


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fidea-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17012:1" rel="noopener">Fidea Holdings (8713 JP) </a>from Miyagi Prefecture in Japan’s northern Tohoku Region has announced that Iwate-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tohoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8169:1" rel="noopener">Tohoku Bank (8349 JP)</a> will become a wholly-owned subsidiary in October 2022, in an all-share deal.   The announcement, which was reported during market trading hours, sent both stock prices up almost 10% on Friday 2 July.  However, rather than presaging a new paradigm for these banks, the spike in the stock prices was simply a reminder of how essentially illiquid these stocks are. The shares retreated to their pre-announcement levels in the following week.Fidea Holdings is the holding company for the smallest of three banks from Yamagata Prefecture, Shonai Bank, and the smallest of two banks from Akita Prefecture, Hokuto Bank.  Tohoku Bank, from Iwate Prefecture, is the smallest of three banks based there, and roughly one-third the size of Fidea Holdings.  Far from being a ‘Band of Brothers’, the enlarged Fidea Holdings will, in effect, be little more than a school of minnows whose combined branch network of 149 branches, while nominally  covering the whole of the Tohoku Region, has little overlap; thus little opportunity to cut costs through closing competing branches or reducing the headcount significantly.  Significant inherent weaknesses in all three banks remain largely unaddressed.  It is difficult to see how simply integrating operations under a holding company structure will resolve them.While the announcement no doubt comes with the advance approval of the financial authorities, who are keen for regional banks to merge to strengthen their operations, it creates something of a dilemma for the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in that both institutions still owe taxpayers a combined total of ¥20 billion (US$181.8 million) in public funds.  Neither seems in a position to repay that capital any time soon, as we explain in this Insight.The Bank of Japan’s own ‘bad bank’, the Resolution &amp; Collection Corporation (RCC), is effectively the largest shareholder in both Fidea Holdings and Tohoku Bank through convertible preferred stock.  Will their debts be forgiven as part of the integration, or will the due date for the public funds repayment simply be extended for a further decade or so?  Will the RCC force conversion of its preferred stock into ordinary shares because of the merger, becoming overtly by far the largest shareholder?  What will be the impact of such a decision on investor sentiment for existing shareholders?  These are all important (and, for the time being, unanswerable) questions for investors.Foreign institutional investors own 12% of Fidea Holdings, and 4% of Tohoku Bank.  We fail to understand the attraction, given all the underlying weaknesses, as we detail in this Insight.  We view Friday’s ‘bounce’ in the stock prices of both Fidea Holdings and Tohoku Bank, on an unusual surge in trading volume, as a narrow ‘opportunity window’ for frustrated shareholders to exit both stocks and stay away thereafter.  That surge is over.  To those who were tempted to pile in we say:   Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!).

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP) from Miyagi Prefecture in Japan’s northern Tohoku Region has announced that Iwate-based Tohoku Bank (8349 JP) will become a wholly-owned subsidiary in October 2022, in an all-share deal.   The announcement, which was reported during market trading hours, sent both stock prices up almost 10% on Friday 2 July.  However, rather than presaging a new paradigm for these banks, the spike in the stock prices was simply a reminder of how essentially illiquid these stocks are. The shares retreated to their pre-announcement levels in the following week.Fidea Holdings is the holding company for the smallest of three banks from Yamagata Prefecture, Shonai Bank, and the smallest of two banks from Akita Prefecture, Hokuto Bank.  Tohoku Bank, from Iwate Prefecture, is the smallest of three banks based there, and roughly one-third the size of Fidea Holdings.  Far from being a ‘Band of Brothers’, the enlarged Fidea Holdings will, in effect, be little more than a school of minnows whose combined branch network of 149 branches, while nominally  covering the whole of the Tohoku Region, has little overlap; thus little opportunity to cut costs through closing competing branches or reducing the headcount significantly.  Significant inherent weaknesses in all three banks remain largely unaddressed.  It is difficult to see how simply integrating operations under a holding company structure will resolve them.While the announcement no doubt comes with the advance approval of the financial authorities, who are keen for regional banks to merge to strengthen their operations, it creates something of a dilemma for the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in that both institutions still owe taxpayers a combined total of ¥20 billion (US$181.8 million) in public funds.  Neither seems in a position to repay that capital any time soon, as we explain in this Insight.The Bank of Japan’s own ‘bad bank’, the Resolution &amp; Collection Corporation (RCC), is effectively the largest shareholder in both Fidea Holdings and Tohoku Bank through convertible preferred stock.  Will their debts be forgiven as part of the integration, or will the due date for the public funds repayment simply be extended for a further decade or so?  Will the RCC force conversion of its preferred stock into ordinary shares because of the merger, becoming overtly by far the largest shareholder?  What will be the impact of such a decision on investor sentiment for existing shareholders?  These are all important (and, for the time being, unanswerable) questions for investors.Foreign institutional investors own 12% of Fidea Holdings, and 4% of Tohoku Bank.  We fail to understand the attraction, given all the underlying weaknesses, as we detail in this Insight.  We view Friday’s ‘bounce’ in the stock prices of both Fidea Holdings and Tohoku Bank, on an unusual surge in trading volume, as a narrow ‘opportunity window’ for frustrated shareholders to exit both stocks and stay away thereafter.  That surge is over.  To those who were tempted to pile in we say:   Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!).

Fidea Holdings (9713 JP):  A School of Minnows

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimizu-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15400:1" rel="noopener">Shimizu Bank (8364 JP)</a>, a small Japanese regional bank from Shizuoka Prefecture in the Chubu Region of central Japan, has slashed its FY3/2020 forecast for consolidated profits by ¥6.3 billion and is now warning of consolidated net losses of as much as ¥3.9 billion, or ¥336.67/share.  The problem seems to be hefty valuation losses in the bank’s investment trusts and equities portfolio, for which the turmoil in global markets caused by the coronavirus pandemic is being blamed. But Shimizu Bank was running into trouble long before the outbreak of COVID-19, with a chronically high Overhead Ratio (OHR) eating into revenues, falling net loan margins, downward pressure on net interest income and core earnings, and a tendency to rely on equity-related profits to shore up reported earnings.Given that the bank only recently agreed to have online financial specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">Sbi Holdings (8473 JP)</a> acquire around 3% of Shimizu Bank’s shares and become a major shareholder, it seems that SBI Group’s president and financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao is going to be a busy man sorting his latest regional bank alliance out and recouping his investment.Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

Shimizu Bank (8364 JP), a small Japanese regional bank from Shizuoka Prefecture in the Chubu Region of central Japan, has slashed its FY3/2020 forecast for consolidated profits by ¥6.3 billion and is now warning of consolidated net losses of as much as ¥3.9 billion, or ¥336.67/share.  The problem seems to be hefty valuation losses in the bank’s investment trusts and equities portfolio, for which the turmoil in global markets caused by the coronavirus pandemic is being blamed. But Shimizu Bank was running into trouble long before the outbreak of COVID-19, with a chronically high Overhead Ratio (OHR) eating into revenues, falling net loan margins, downward pressure on net interest income and core earnings, and a tendency to rely on equity-related profits to shore up reported earnings.Given that the bank only recently agreed to have online financial specialist Sbi Holdings (8473 JP) acquire around 3% of Shimizu Bank’s shares and become a major shareholder, it seems that SBI Group’s president and financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao is going to be a busy man sorting his latest regional bank alliance out and recouping his investment.Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

Shimizu Bank  (8364 JP):  Clear Water Runs Red

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fidea-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17012:1" rel="noopener">Fidea Holdings (8713 JP)</a>, a bank holding company based in Miyagi Prefecture in Japan’s northern Tohoku Region, has a load of problems.  Its performance ratios are poor, its deposit base is declining, its loan portfolio is shrinking and its share price has fallen below ¥100.  Now it has slashed its earnings guidance for FY3/2020 by 64%, citing trading losses incurred by its Treasury Division in reducing group exposure to equities and REITs. Yet foreign institutional investors continue to own 16% of outstanding shares.  We fail to understand why.  Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP), a bank holding company based in Miyagi Prefecture in Japan’s northern Tohoku Region, has a load of problems.  Its performance ratios are poor, its deposit base is declining, its loan portfolio is shrinking and its share price has fallen below ¥100.  Now it has slashed its earnings guidance for FY3/2020 by 64%, citing trading losses incurred by its Treasury Division in reducing group exposure to equities and REITs. Yet foreign institutional investors continue to own 16% of outstanding shares.  We fail to understand why.  Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP): Shrinking, Sinking

Japan

FIDEA Holdings Co.Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Shonai Bank and Hokuto Bank.  The group Companies provide general banking services including deposits, loans, foreign exchange, leasing, and credit cards.

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Fidea Holdings (8713 JP)

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Fidea Holdings (9713 JP): A School of Minnows

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP) has announced that Iwate-based Tohoku Bank (8349 JP) will become a wholly-owned subsidiary in October 2022, in an all...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Shimizu Bank (8364 JP): Clear Water Runs Red

Shimizu Bank (8364 JP), a small Japanese regional bank from Shizuoka Prefecture in the Chubu Region of central Japan, has slashed its FY3/2020...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP): Shrinking, Sinking

Fidea Holdings (8713 JP), a bank holding company based in Miyagi Prefecture in Japan’s northern Tohoku Region, has a load of problems. Its...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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