Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrari-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24708:1" rel="noopener">Ferrari NV (RACE IM)</a> has been a steady compounder of earnings growing operating profits at 14% CAGR and sales volumes at 6% CAGR over the last 20 years. </li>
<li>The company has expanded EBITDA margins from 25% in 2014 to 35% in 2022 and is expected to increase by another 300 bps in FY23 to 38%, as per guidance. </li>
<li>At 41x/35x FY23e/FY24e, we conceded it is a tad expensive, but we would look at investing in this company over the long term.</li>
</ul>



Ferrari NV (RACE IM) has been a steady compounder of earnings growing operating profits at 14% CAGR and sales volumes at 6% CAGR over the last 20 years. 
The company has expanded EBITDA margins from 25% in 2014 to 35% in 2022 and is expected to increase by another 300 bps in FY23 to 38%, as per guidance. 
At 41x/35x FY23e/FY24e, we conceded it is a tad expensive, but we would look at investing in this company over the long term.


Ferrari: Classic Fisher Company, Almost Perfect Score on The Fisher 15 Framework

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrari-n-v" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21010:1" rel="noopener">Ferrari N.V. (RACE US)</a> had a stellar Q3 2023 with 23.5%/45% YoY overall revenue and profit growth, beating analyst estimates and conservatively upping guidance by 2-3%. </li>
<li>Despite volumes growing only 8.5% YoY, car revenues grew 26% YoY, highlighting strong trends in personalization (at 19%) and pricing, with the current order book full.</li>
<li>Valuations are rich at 45x/39x FY23e/24e PE, but there seems to be a clear path to 20% YoY growth at over 25% ROCEs. </li>
</ul>



Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) had a stellar Q3 2023 with 23.5%/45% YoY overall revenue and profit growth, beating analyst estimates and conservatively upping guidance by 2-3%. 
Despite volumes growing only 8.5% YoY, car revenues grew 26% YoY, highlighting strong trends in personalization (at 19%) and pricing, with the current order book full.
Valuations are rich at 45x/39x FY23e/24e PE, but there seems to be a clear path to 20% YoY growth at over 25% ROCEs. 


Ferrari (RACE US) The Classic Fisher Stock Q3 2023: Stellar, No Slowdown Here

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The September 2023 index changes for the ES50 index was confirmed after the close on Friday 1st September 2023.</li>
<li>There will be two ADDs and two DELETEs. One set of changes was well anticipated by us. The other set comes as a major surprise to us.</li>
<li>Collectively, the two ADDs could see ~US$2.4bn index flows and the two DELs could see ~US$2.9bn index flows, with US$500mm of reverse funding flows.</li>
</ul>


The September 2023 index changes for the ES50 index was confirmed after the close on Friday 1st September 2023.
There will be two ADDs and two DELETEs. One set of changes was well anticipated by us. The other set comes as a major surprise to us.
Collectively, the two ADDs could see ~US$2.4bn index flows and the two DELs could see ~US$2.9bn index flows, with US$500mm of reverse funding flows.


Quiddity ES50 Sep 23 Rebal: Ferrari/Vonovia Change Confirmed + Another US$2bn+ Flow Surprise!

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>The index changes will be confirmed after the close on 1st September 2023.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
The index changes will be confirmed after the close on 1st September 2023.
In this insight, we take a final look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: US$1.3bn Flow for Ferrari Likely; Announcement Soon

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Mandarin Oriental International / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>While traditional luxury brands may encounter challenges as affluent Chinese consumers shift to local high-end brands, there are still opportunities within small niches in the luxury sector.</li>
<li>Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in the luxury sector.</li>
<li>The thriving luxury travel market opens up investment potential in sectors such as luxury hotels and premium cosmetics.</li>
</ul>


While traditional luxury brands may encounter challenges as affluent Chinese consumers shift to local high-end brands, there are still opportunities within small niches in the luxury sector.
Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in the luxury sector.
The thriving luxury travel market opens up investment potential in sectors such as luxury hotels and premium cosmetics.


APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods

Italy

Ferrari NV designs and manufactures sports cars. The Company offers new and used vehicles, warranty programs, financial supports, and maintenance, as well as watches, apparels, earphones, caps, and other accessories. Ferrari markets its products worldwide.

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Ferrari NV (RACE IM)

Ferrari: Classic Fisher Company, Almost Perfect Score on The Fisher 15 Framework

Ferrari is a classic Fisher stock. We analyze Ferrari based on the Fisher 15 criteria and find that it meets almost all criteria, implying it could...

Sameer Taneja

Ferrari (RACE US) The Classic Fisher Stock Q3 2023: Stellar, No Slowdown Here

Valuations for Ferrari (RACE US) may be rich at 45x PE FY23e, but with 15-20% CAGR growth, pricing power, superior margins, and ROIC and brand...

Sameer Taneja

Quiddity ES50 Sep 23 Rebal: Ferrari/Vonovia Change Confirmed + Another US$2bn+ Flow Surprise!

I would look to go SHORT Saint-Gobain vs peers during the Inclusion event especially if Saint-Gobain sharply outperforms peers between now and the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: US$1.3bn Flow for Ferrari Likely; Announcement Soon

I expect Ferrari NV to be added to the ES50 index and Vonovia to be deleted from the ES50 index in September 2023.There could be 13+ days of volume...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods

Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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