Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume </li>
<li>We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> has played there</li>
<li>We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume 
We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has played there
We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers</li>
<li>The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers</li>
<li>It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models </li>
</ul>


The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers
The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers
It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models 


The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

COVID-19 vaccines figure into Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan, though with a clear emphasis on distribution versus development (as was Trump's focus). Biden's prioritisation of vaccine distribution – and the US$25 billion earmarked for it – is a gift for "cold chain" stocks."Cold chain" refers to a complex temperature-controlled supply chain that is mission-critical to the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. Critical, because vaccines require consistent ultra-cold storage from manufacture to needle-stick, otherwise those expensive vaccines become medical waste.This Insight looks at cold chain stocks as an investment theme inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/biden-covid-19-response-plan-overview-of-its-inherent-investment-themes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45631" rel="noopener">Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes</a>). Although the cold chain is fragmented and largely privately-held, but there are opportunities in three areas:<ol>
<li>
Freight and Logistics: Most listed companies fall into this category, including both integrated cold chain freight and logistics stocks, as well as niche players in either of freight or logistics.</li>
<li>
Freezer Manufacturers: Ultra-cold freezer boxes and related industrial components of various shapes and sizes are needed for the cold chain to function. Several stocks serve this segment.</li>
<li>
Specialty Chemicals: Dry ice gets all the headlines, as massive amounts are needed but supply is short, but other specialty chemicals and industrial gases are also needed in the cold chain.</li>
</ol>

COVID-19 vaccines figure into Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan, though with a clear emphasis on distribution versus development (as was Trump's focus). Biden's prioritisation of vaccine distribution – and the US$25 billion earmarked for it – is a gift for "cold chain" stocks."Cold chain" refers to a complex temperature-controlled supply chain that is mission-critical to the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. Critical, because vaccines require consistent ultra-cold storage from manufacture to needle-stick, otherwise those expensive vaccines become medical waste.This Insight looks at cold chain stocks as an investment theme inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan (see Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes). Although the cold chain is fragmented and largely privately-held, but there are opportunities in three areas:

Freight and Logistics: Most listed companies fall into this category, including both integrated cold chain freight and logistics stocks, as well as niche players in either of freight or logistics.

Freezer Manufacturers: Ultra-cold freezer boxes and related industrial components of various shapes and sizes are needed for the cold chain to function. Several stocks serve this segment.

Specialty Chemicals: Dry ice gets all the headlines, as massive amounts are needed but supply is short, but other specialty chemicals and industrial gases are also needed in the cold chain.


Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Cold Chain Transportation and Logistics Stocks Benefit

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates</li>
<li>Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?</li>
<li>With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding</li>
</ul>


By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates
Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?
With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

<ul>
<li>H224 showed moderating top-line growth, but solid Y/Y improvement in EBITDA margin</li>
<li>However, the levers that drove margin improvement in 2024 appear to be losing power</li>
<li>Within China's express and logistics segment, we find SF Holding to be far more attractive</li>
</ul>


H224 showed moderating top-line growth, but solid Y/Y improvement in EBITDA margin
However, the levers that drove margin improvement in 2024 appear to be losing power
Within China's express and logistics segment, we find SF Holding to be far more attractive


J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power

United States

FedEx Corp. delivers packages and freight to multiple countries and territories through an integrated global network.  The Company provides worldwide express delivery, ground small-parcel delivery, less-than-truckload freight delivery, supply chain management services, customs brokerage services, and trade facilitation and electronic commerce solutions.

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FedEx Corp (FDX US)

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T's updated filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO in Hong Kong...

Tracking Traffic

The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

Thie story of fake US postage being used to distribute Chinese goods to US consumers isn't just a fascinating story -- it could potentially have...

Tracking Traffic

Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Cold Chain Transportation and Logistics Stocks Benefit

Biden's COVID-19 response plan earmarks US$25 billion to vaccines, but with a twist. His emphasis is vaccine distribution, not development. That...

Kyle Rudden

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

Combined January-February parcel volume growth moderated, but it's too early to say this is a departure from trend. We're now more concerned about...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express H224 Results: Levers That Drove Earlier Improvement Are Losing Power

J&T Global's H224 earnings appear solid on the surface, but a closer look reveals that drivers of the company's improved profitability in recent...

Tracking Traffic

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