Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. </li>
<li>The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.</li>
<li>This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. 
The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts


Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Headline developments are all up in the air this week, starting with United Airlines (UAL) who have signed an agreement with Boom Supersonic (private) to add 15 of their $200m jets to the fleet, with the option of adding an additional 35, after certain safety, sustainability and operating metrics are met.

Headline developments are all up in the air this week, starting with United Airlines (UAL) who have signed an agreement with Boom Supersonic (private) to add 15 of their $200m jets to the fleet, with the option of adding an additional 35, after certain safety, sustainability and operating metrics are met.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32158:1" rel="noopener">Tuya Inc (TUYA US)</a>  offers a purpose-built IoT Cloud platform with a full suite of offerings that include Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) and Software-as-a-Service (Saas) to businesses and developers. The company started trading on the NYSE on 18th March and the company set the final IPO pricing at US$21 per ADS, higher than the company’s IPO price range of US$17-20 per ADS. The company issued 43.59m ADS (each ADS represents one ordinary share of the company) at the IPO and raised approx. US$915m.Tuya’s IPO in the US marks the second biggest US IPO in 2021 by a Chinese company after RLX Technology raised over US$1.5bn at its US IPO earlier this year.Tuya’s shares opened strong on its first day of trading, hitting an intra-day high ofUS$26.30 per ADS, about 25% higher than the final IPO price of US$21 per ADS. Tuya’s shares closed at US$25 per ADS at the end of its first day of trading, about 20% higher than the company’s final IPO price, giving the company a market capitalisation of approx. US$14bn.Tuya’s shares closed at US$20.38 per share at the end of yesterday’s trading (30th March) and the company plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO on R&amp;D, investing on technology infrastructure, marketing and branding and for other general corporate purposes. The company’s IPO was backed by a strong line-up of cornerstone investors including Tencent, Hillhouse Capital, Gaoling Fund, Tiger Global Management, etc.

Tuya Inc (TUYA US)  offers a purpose-built IoT Cloud platform with a full suite of offerings that include Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) and Software-as-a-Service (Saas) to businesses and developers. The company started trading on the NYSE on 18th March and the company set the final IPO pricing at US$21 per ADS, higher than the company’s IPO price range of US$17-20 per ADS. The company issued 43.59m ADS (each ADS represents one ordinary share of the company) at the IPO and raised approx. US$915m.Tuya’s IPO in the US marks the second biggest US IPO in 2021 by a Chinese company after RLX Technology raised over US$1.5bn at its US IPO earlier this year.Tuya’s shares opened strong on its first day of trading, hitting an intra-day high ofUS$26.30 per ADS, about 25% higher than the final IPO price of US$21 per ADS. Tuya’s shares closed at US$25 per ADS at the end of its first day of trading, about 20% higher than the company’s final IPO price, giving the company a market capitalisation of approx. US$14bn.Tuya’s shares closed at US$20.38 per share at the end of yesterday’s trading (30th March) and the company plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO on R&amp;D, investing on technology infrastructure, marketing and branding and for other general corporate purposes. The company’s IPO was backed by a strong line-up of cornerstone investors including Tencent, Hillhouse Capital, Gaoling Fund, Tiger Global Management, etc.

Tuya IPO Trading Update: Recent Drop in Stock Price Offers a Good Entry Point

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32158:1" rel="noopener">Tuya Inc (TUYA US)</a>  has set the terms for its IPO where it plans to issue 43.6m ADS’ at an indicative IPO price range of US$17-20 per ADS. At the midpoint of the above price range, Tuya will raise net proceeds of US$770.72m (approx. US$887m if underwriter’s exercise their overallotment option) at a market capitalisation of US$10.36bn and a post-money valuation of US$9.4bn.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 112.0pt;">TUYA IPO Details</td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 62.0pt;">No. of ADSs Issued</td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;">43,590,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 62.0pt;">Ordinary Shares per ADS</td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 62.0pt;">Shares Outstanding Post IPO</td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;">559,760,081</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 62.0pt;">Offer as a % of Outstanding Shares</td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;">7.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 62.0pt;">Price per ADS (US$)</td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;">17-20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 62.0pt;">Net Proceeds from IPO (US$m)</td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;">770.72</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 62.0pt;">Market Capitalisation (US$m)</td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;">9,516-11,195</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 62.0pt;">Enterprise Value (US$m)</td>
<td style="width: 50.0pt;">8,565-10,245</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>Source: Company Disclosures, LSR (Net proceeds is at the midpoint of the IPO price of US$18.5 per share, EV is after adjusting for net cash and net IPO proceeds)Tuya plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO on R&amp;D, investing on technology infrastructure, marketing and branding and other general corporate purposes.The company’s IPO also has got a strong line-up of cornerstone investors including Tencent, Hillhouse Capital, Gaoling Fund, Tiger Global Management, etc. who have agreed to subscribe for an aggregate of at least US$500m of the ADS’ offered at the IPO.

Tuya Inc (TUYA US)  has set the terms for its IPO where it plans to issue 43.6m ADS’ at an indicative IPO price range of US$17-20 per ADS. At the midpoint of the above price range, Tuya will raise net proceeds of US$770.72m (approx. US$887m if underwriter’s exercise their overallotment option) at a market capitalisation of US$10.36bn and a post-money valuation of US$9.4bn.
TUYA IPO Details

No. of ADSs Issued
43,590,000


Ordinary Shares per ADS
1


Shares Outstanding Post IPO
559,760,081


Offer as a % of Outstanding Shares
7.79%


Price per ADS (US$)
17-20


Net Proceeds from IPO (US$m)
770.72


Market Capitalisation (US$m)
9,516-11,195


Enterprise Value (US$m)
8,565-10,245

Source: Company Disclosures, LSR (Net proceeds is at the midpoint of the IPO price of US$18.5 per share, EV is after adjusting for net cash and net IPO proceeds)Tuya plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO on R&amp;D, investing on technology infrastructure, marketing and branding and other general corporate purposes.The company’s IPO also has got a strong line-up of cornerstone investors including Tencent, Hillhouse Capital, Gaoling Fund, Tiger Global Management, etc. who have agreed to subscribe for an aggregate of at least US$500m of the ADS’ offered at the IPO.

Tuya IPO Valuation: Market Leadership and China IoT Exposure Justify Expensive Multiples

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Tuya announced its IPO pricing range, which is expected to be between $17 to $20 per share. Tuya plans to raise $806 million offering 43.6 million ADS. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Tuya's implied market cap would be $10.4 billion. At the high end of the IPO price range of $20 per share, the company would be valued at $11.2 billion. This assumes fully diluted shares outstanding of 562.2 million. <div class="content-highlight">Our base case and high case implied market caps of the company are $11.3 billion ($20.1 per share) and $17.4 billion ($31 per share), respectively. We do believe that there will be a nice first day pop for this IPO and expect its market cap could reach the high end of the valuation sensitivity analysis ($17.4 billion or $30 per share). In the first few days of trading post IPO, we expect the company's market cap to be trading in the mid-to-high end of our valuation analysis ($20.1 to $30 per share). We have a positive view of the Tuya IPO. </div>

Tuya announced its IPO pricing range, which is expected to be between $17 to $20 per share. Tuya plans to raise $806 million offering 43.6 million ADS. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Tuya's implied market cap would be $10.4 billion. At the high end of the IPO price range of $20 per share, the company would be valued at $11.2 billion. This assumes fully diluted shares outstanding of 562.2 million. Our base case and high case implied market caps of the company are $11.3 billion ($20.1 per share) and $17.4 billion ($31 per share), respectively. We do believe that there will be a nice first day pop for this IPO and expect its market cap could reach the high end of the valuation sensitivity analysis ($17.4 billion or $30 per share). In the first few days of trading post IPO, we expect the company's market cap to be trading in the mid-to-high end of our valuation analysis ($20.1 to $30 per share). We have a positive view of the Tuya IPO. 

Tuya: A Pure-Play IoT PaaS/SaaS Player Announces IPO Pricing Range

United States

Fastly, Inc. provides infrastructure software. The Company offers cloud computing, image optimization, security, edge computer technology, and streaming solutions. Fastly serves customers in the United States.

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Fastly Inc (FSLY US)

Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts

This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows. This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #35

Headline developments are all up in the air this week, starting with United Airlines (UAL) who have signed an agreement with Boom Supersonic

Granite Bay Capital

Tuya IPO Trading Update: Recent Drop in Stock Price Offers a Good Entry Point

Though Tuya’s IPO had a strong debut on the first two days of trading, it was short-lived and the current drop in the company’s trading multiples...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tuya IPO Valuation: Market Leadership and China IoT Exposure Justify Expensive Multiples

Though Tuya’s implied LTM revenue multiple is at a premium to peers, Tuya’s best years are yet to come as the IoT PaaS and SaaS markets in China...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tuya: A Pure-Play IoT PaaS/SaaS Player Announces IPO Pricing Range

In the first few days of trading post IPO, we expect the company's market cap to be trading in the mid-to-high end of our valuation analysis ($20.1...

Douglas Kim

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