Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Z Holdings shares have sold off on disappointment over mid-term profitability targets that remain unchanged despite the addition of Line and possible synergies (and equity dilution). But management believes investments will pay off with stronger top-line growth. Some of its aspirational targets (like eCommerce leadership) seem to be a stretch but we do think that the merger gives it the resources to compete with heavyweights like Google (online ads), Facebook (social media), Amazon (eCommerce) and Rakuten (fintech). We are initiating coverage at Buy with a <a target="_blank">¥680 </a>FY21 (Mar-22) target price.

Z Holdings shares have sold off on disappointment over mid-term profitability targets that remain unchanged despite the addition of Line and possible synergies (and equity dilution). But management believes investments will pay off with stronger top-line growth. Some of its aspirational targets (like eCommerce leadership) seem to be a stretch but we do think that the merger gives it the resources to compete with heavyweights like Google (online ads), Facebook (social media), Amazon (eCommerce) and Rakuten (fintech). We are initiating coverage at Buy with a ¥680 FY21 (Mar-22) target price.

Z Holdings - Great Expectations On (The) LINE (Initiation of Coverage)

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Snap is a deservedly crowded long. It had heightened expectations coming into the quarter, especially for the 2Q21 guide, which buyside expected to be a huge number given the easy comp. And Snap didn’t disappoint. The key takeaway for us about why one can (kind of) ignore valuation, which at 20x forward sales seems extremely high, is that Snap has entered the Facebook zone from 2015-2017, when the company had finally hit its stride at executing self-serve targeted direct response advertising at scale, reducing friction for advertisers to enter the platform. Facebook became part of THE online ad duopoly and started adding millions of businesses every year because of the highest ROI in online advertising, growing revenues 50%+ annually, even as it scaled from $12B to $40B in revenues because of the unlimited optionality around new ad units…and yet to be monetized massive products like Instagram. We aren’t saying Spotlight or Maps is the equivalent of Instagram, but we do think Snap has long passed the threshold of required advertising platform for large advertisers and can compound for years, even despite its meteoric rise in the past year.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Snap is a deservedly crowded long. It had heightened expectations coming into the quarter, especially for the 2Q21 guide, which buyside expected to be a huge number given the easy comp. And Snap didn’t disappoint. The key takeaway for us about why one can (kind of) ignore valuation, which at 20x forward sales seems extremely high, is that Snap has entered the Facebook zone from 2015-2017, when the company had finally hit its stride at executing self-serve targeted direct response advertising at scale, reducing friction for advertisers to enter the platform. Facebook became part of THE online ad duopoly and started adding millions of businesses every year because of the highest ROI in online advertising, growing revenues 50%+ annually, even as it scaled from $12B to $40B in revenues because of the unlimited optionality around new ad units…and yet to be monetized massive products like Instagram. We aren’t saying Spotlight or Maps is the equivalent of Instagram, but we do think Snap has long passed the threshold of required advertising platform for large advertisers and can compound for years, even despite its meteoric rise in the past year.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

SNAP 1Q21: Spotlight on Spotlight…Why Snap Is Still a Multi Bagger

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. We have said since last year that Netflix is a good relative short given the extreme pull-in of demand from COVID, and the fact that Netflix’s stock performance tracks the pace of sub growth, and the shockingly weak guidance for 2Q21 implies this stock will continue to be the #1 large cap funding short for the foreseeable future. But for how long?<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. We have said since last year that Netflix is a good relative short given the extreme pull-in of demand from COVID, and the fact that Netflix’s stock performance tracks the pace of sub growth, and the shockingly weak guidance for 2Q21 implies this stock will continue to be the #1 large cap funding short for the foreseeable future. But for how long?Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> is Southeast Asia’s leading super-app and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a>.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/grab-spac-deal-delivering-the-goods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50305" rel="noopener">Grab SPAC Deal: Delivering the Goods</a>, we looked at Grab's fundamentals and management forecasts. We noted that Grab is using its super-app status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish.  In this note, we look at the valuation. As a reminder, the deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue.<div class="content-highlight">
At first glance, Grab's implied multiples are eye-watering in comparison to global peers related to its delivery and mobility businesses. However, we think that judging Grab's multiples based on such peers is missing the point. Grab's key competitive advantage and investor pitch is that it can be credibly billed as a super-app rather than just a leading app in a narrow market category.
Super-apps tend to be rare and investors are starved of publicly listed opportunities. With the regulatory heat turned up on the Chinese super-apps, alternative super-app plays in Asia are likely to be in demand. When judged against global super-apps, Grab's implied multiples seems more justifiable for its forecast growth.  
</div>

Grab (0967655D SP) is Southeast Asia’s leading super-app and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US).In Grab SPAC Deal: Delivering the Goods, we looked at Grab's fundamentals and management forecasts. We noted that Grab is using its super-app status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish.  In this note, we look at the valuation. As a reminder, the deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue.
At first glance, Grab's implied multiples are eye-watering in comparison to global peers related to its delivery and mobility businesses. However, we think that judging Grab's multiples based on such peers is missing the point. Grab's key competitive advantage and investor pitch is that it can be credibly billed as a super-app rather than just a leading app in a narrow market category.
Super-apps tend to be rare and investors are starved of publicly listed opportunities. With the regulatory heat turned up on the Chinese super-apps, alternative super-app plays in Asia are likely to be in demand. When judged against global super-apps, Grab's implied multiples seems more justifiable for its forecast growth.  


Grab SPAC Deal: A Sensible Super-App Valuation?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Priced at ~2x Uber on a forward EV/Revenue metric.
That was my immediate takeaway from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.grab.com/sg/press/others/grab-go-public-in-partnership-with-altimeter/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> it intends to go public in the U.S. in partnership with SPAC <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a>. 
The proposed transaction represents an expected equity value of US$39.55bn and EV of US$30.36bn, with cash proceeds of US$4.54bn.
In past insights on SPACs, beginning with <a href="https://skr.ma/5UGLq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Virtual IPOs/Direct Listings: Uninhibited Price Discovery</a>, one issue for SPACs is their overabundance in the market today, targeting popular private companies. As such, popular private companies can tee up “SPAC-offs,” where various SPACs pitch their deal, competing (mostly) on price.  The higher the acquisition price, the lower the future return for SPAC investors.
And Grab has competition. Its main rival is Indonesia's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a>, and the two courted each other around February last year before irreconcilable differences led to them parting ways in January this year.
There is talk Gojek will merge with e-commerce payer Tokopedia and similarly seek a US listing.
Mobile gaming and online shopping platform player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> is also in the mix, and currently boasts a non-insignificant market cap of US$125bn.
The merger is slated for closing in July this year.
More below the fold.

Priced at ~2x Uber on a forward EV/Revenue metric.
That was my immediate takeaway from Grab (0967655D SP)'s announcement it intends to go public in the U.S. in partnership with SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US). 
The proposed transaction represents an expected equity value of US$39.55bn and EV of US$30.36bn, with cash proceeds of US$4.54bn.
In past insights on SPACs, beginning with Virtual IPOs/Direct Listings: Uninhibited Price Discovery, one issue for SPACs is their overabundance in the market today, targeting popular private companies. As such, popular private companies can tee up “SPAC-offs,” where various SPACs pitch their deal, competing (mostly) on price.  The higher the acquisition price, the lower the future return for SPAC investors.
And Grab has competition. Its main rival is Indonesia's Gojek (1379371D IJ), and the two courted each other around February last year before irreconcilable differences led to them parting ways in January this year.
There is talk Gojek will merge with e-commerce payer Tokopedia and similarly seek a US listing.
Mobile gaming and online shopping platform player Sea Ltd (SE US) is also in the mix, and currently boasts a non-insignificant market cap of US$125bn.
The merger is slated for closing in July this year.
More below the fold.

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta Platforms (Facebook) (META US)

Z Holdings - Great Expectations On (The) LINE (Initiation of Coverage)

Z Holdings has sold off on disappointment over profitability targets that remain unchanged despite the addition of Line but near-term investments...

Kirk Boodry

SNAP 1Q21: Spotlight on Spotlight…Why Snap Is Still a Multi Bagger

Snap had a very strong 1Q21 and even stronger 2Q21 guidance. Despite a monster 1 year run, we think Snap is set up for a Facebook like multi-year...

Aaron Gabin

Netflix 1Q21: We Ran Out of Content

Netflix just issued its weakest guidance in years. We think subscriber growth will reaccelerate in a few quarters, making Netflix a sneaky long by...

Aaron Gabin

Grab SPAC Deal: A Sensible Super-App Valuation?

Grab's implied multiples are eye-watering in comparison to global peers related to its businesses. When judged against other global super-apps,...

Arun George

SPAC Grab ... At 2x Uber

There are 650mn consumers in Southeast Asia, worth an estimated US$2.8tn. This is not a winner takes all maker. If anything, it's a three-way "grab".

David Blennerhassett

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