China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> reported stronger than expected quarter earnings driven by resilient ad revenue growth. Its 3Q21 revenue grew +30% year-over-year and monthly active users reached 573 million. </li>
<li>We applaud that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> quarter results under tougher regulatory environment (particularly from fandom-related products) and increasing ad impacts from Apple's new iOS IDFA policy. </li>
<li>Weibo estimates 4Q21 revenue to grow 15-20%, consistent with market expectation.  Weibo is traded at forward 15x consensus P/E, which is attractive for Weibo's scale and monetization potential. </li>
</ul>



Weibo Corp (WB US) reported stronger than expected quarter earnings driven by resilient ad revenue growth. Its 3Q21 revenue grew +30% year-over-year and monthly active users reached 573 million. 
We applaud that Weibo Corp (WB US) quarter results under tougher regulatory environment (particularly from fandom-related products) and increasing ad impacts from Apple's new iOS IDFA policy. 
Weibo estimates 4Q21 revenue to grow 15-20%, consistent with market expectation.  Weibo is traded at forward 15x consensus P/E, which is attractive for Weibo's scale and monetization potential. 


Weibo (WB US): Strong Quarter Amid Regulatory Crackdown

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Billions of people in the world will bypass Internet to use metaverse in the coming years. </li>
<li>There are real possibilities to encourage people to spend more time in the metaverse rather than Internet with regards to social life, gaming, work, and e-commerce. </li>
<li><strong>The market caps of the four metaverse related ETFs that were launched in Korea on 13 October are up by 453% to reach 421 billion won on 12 November. </strong></li>
</ul>


Billions of people in the world will bypass Internet to use metaverse in the coming years. 
There are real possibilities to encourage people to spend more time in the metaverse rather than Internet with regards to social life, gaming, work, and e-commerce. 
The market caps of the four metaverse related ETFs that were launched in Korea on 13 October are up by 453% to reach 421 billion won on 12 November. 


Why Billions of People Will Bypass Internet to Use Metaverse & Surge in Metaverse ETFs AUM in Korea

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>In the past few weeks, Facebook changed its name to Meta, showing its emphasis on the concept as central to its future. Nvidia and AMD have been skyrocketing as investors speculate that in the future, all the large platforms will be putting huge money behind the concept. AMD just got a big win at Facebook to help power its Metaverse. Facebook is putting soooo much behind the metaverse…its almost a shame they couldn’t just buy Roblox.</p><p>This was a fine fine quarter for Roblox, the platform is aging up, growth accelerating internationally, platform extensions abound. But…consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively…not the type of revisions that merits a 30% move higher. 8% short interest doesn’t sound like much, but 4 days to cover on a relatively thin float seems to be the culprit. We would take profits on Roblox and look to re-engage in the $80s.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

In the past few weeks, Facebook changed its name to Meta, showing its emphasis on the concept as central to its future. Nvidia and AMD have been skyrocketing as investors speculate that in the future, all the large platforms will be putting huge money behind the concept. AMD just got a big win at Facebook to help power its Metaverse. Facebook is putting soooo much behind the metaverse…its almost a shame they couldn’t just buy Roblox.This was a fine fine quarter for Roblox, the platform is aging up, growth accelerating internationally, platform extensions abound. But…consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively…not the type of revisions that merits a 30% move higher. 8% short interest doesn’t sound like much, but 4 days to cover on a relatively thin float seems to be the culprit. We would take profits on Roblox and look to re-engage in the $80s.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Event-Driven

<div class="content-highlight"><p>In the past few days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hybe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28959:1" rel="noopener">HYBE (352820 KS)</a> announced an equity based partnership with Dunamu as well as the launch of the BTS NFT (non-fungible token). Dunamu will invest 700 billion won in HYBE through a third-party allocation and paid-in capital increase. HYBE will also invest 500 billion won in Dunamu through a third-party allocation and paid-in capital increase.</p></div><ul>
<li>HYBE will issue 2.3 million new shares (5.9% of current outstanding shares of 39 million) at a purchase price of 304,008 won in this transaction. HYBE currently has a stock price of 383,500 won so the purchase price is about 21% lower than the current price. </li>
<li>As a result of this transaction, HYBE will have a 2.48% stake in Dunamu, which would imply a value of 20.2 trillion won ($17.2 billion) for Dunamu. The date of this share acquisition completion will be on 24 November.</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Metaverse &amp; NFT - A Re-Rating Factor for HYBE? </strong>The metaverse and NFT have taken the world by storm in 2021. One could argue that the extremely strong demand for NFT and metaverse in 2021 have been one of the key reasons for the re-rating of HYBE this year. Certainly, HYBE faces the risk associated with its high dependence on the BTS. However, it has been able to partly diffuse this risk with the acquisition of Ithaca Holdings in April 2021. Now, with the extraordinary demand for NTF and metaverse related contents and services, HYBE is well positioned to capitalize these trends.</p></div>

In the past few days, HYBE (352820 KS) announced an equity based partnership with Dunamu as well as the launch of the BTS NFT (non-fungible token). Dunamu will invest 700 billion won in HYBE through a third-party allocation and paid-in capital increase. HYBE will also invest 500 billion won in Dunamu through a third-party allocation and paid-in capital increase.
HYBE will issue 2.3 million new shares (5.9% of current outstanding shares of 39 million) at a purchase price of 304,008 won in this transaction. HYBE currently has a stock price of 383,500 won so the purchase price is about 21% lower than the current price. 
As a result of this transaction, HYBE will have a 2.48% stake in Dunamu, which would imply a value of 20.2 trillion won ($17.2 billion) for Dunamu. The date of this share acquisition completion will be on 24 November.
Metaverse &amp; NFT - A Re-Rating Factor for HYBE? The metaverse and NFT have taken the world by storm in 2021. One could argue that the extremely strong demand for NFT and metaverse in 2021 have been one of the key reasons for the re-rating of HYBE this year. Certainly, HYBE faces the risk associated with its high dependence on the BTS. However, it has been able to partly diffuse this risk with the acquisition of Ithaca Holdings in April 2021. Now, with the extraordinary demand for NTF and metaverse related contents and services, HYBE is well positioned to capitalize these trends.

A Equity-Based Partnership Between HYBE and Dunamu & The Upcoming Launch of BTS NFT

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

<p>Headline Development A lot of momentum continues around the metaverse. A few people were close to the pin on Facebook’s new name…..MetaBook, Metanet, MetaRack...even MetaMark being amongst the favourites.  However, Meta came out on top - or Meta Platforms (MVRS) to be precise.</p>

Headline Development A lot of momentum continues around the metaverse. A few people were close to the pin on Facebook’s new name…..MetaBook, Metanet, MetaRack...even MetaMark being amongst the favourites.  However, Meta came out on top - or Meta Platforms (MVRS) to be precise.

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Weibo (WB US): Strong Quarter Amid Regulatory Crackdown

Weibo Corp (WB US) reported stronger than expected quarter earnings driven by resilient ad revenue growth. Its 3Q21 revenue grew +30% year-over...

Roger Xie

Why Billions of People Will Bypass Internet to Use Metaverse & Surge in Metaverse ETFs AUM in Korea

The market caps of the four metaverse related ETFs that were launched in Korea on 13 October are up by 453% to reach 421 billion won on 12 November.

Douglas Kim

Roblox 3Q21: 30% Move for THESE Results?

Fine quarter for Roblox, but consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively. We would take profits on Roblox and...

Aaron Gabin

A Equity-Based Partnership Between HYBE and Dunamu & The Upcoming Launch of BTS NFT

In the past few days, HYBE announced an equity based partnership with Dunamu as well as the launch of the BTS NFT (non-fungible token).

Douglas Kim

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #56

Headline Development A lot of momentum continues around the metaverse. A few people were close to the pin on Facebook’s new name…..MetaBook,...

Granite Bay Capital

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