Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.</li>
<li>The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.</li>
<li>Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. </li>
</ul>


In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.
The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.
Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. 


Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds, Fund Newsletters

Fund Newsletters

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Palm Valley Capital Fund invests in small cap stocks. While our Fund is new, its underlying absolute return-based investment strategy is not. We have practiced the same strategy throughout our careers in investment management.</li>
<li>The combination of falling stock prices and attractive small cap multiples appears to present a powerful case for buying aggressively. We do not share this view.</li>
<li>Non-cash share-based compensation accounts for roughly one-third of the collective free cash flow of small caps in the S&amp;P 600 Index.</li>
<li>The current 33x median price-to-free cash flow multiple for better quality small caps (S&amp;P 600) is the highest this cycle.</li>
<li>Market volatility is important to Palm Valley’s absolute return strategy.</li>
</ul>


The Palm Valley Capital Fund invests in small cap stocks. While our Fund is new, its underlying absolute return-based investment strategy is not. We have practiced the same strategy throughout our careers in investment management.
The combination of falling stock prices and attractive small cap multiples appears to present a powerful case for buying aggressively. We do not share this view.
Non-cash share-based compensation accounts for roughly one-third of the collective free cash flow of small caps in the S&amp;P 600 Index.
The current 33x median price-to-free cash flow multiple for better quality small caps (S&amp;P 600) is the highest this cycle.
Market volatility is important to Palm Valley’s absolute return strategy.


Palm Valley Capital Fund Q3 2022 Commentary

<p>Market dynamics remain largely positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across all Sectors and the major averages. As a result, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.</p>

Market dynamics remain largely positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across all Sectors and the major averages. As a result, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Improving, But Can It Last?

United States

EZCORP, Inc. owns and operates pawn shops that serve as sources for consumer credit and retail previously-owned merchandise.  The Company operates in the United States.

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Ezcorp Inc Cl A (EZPW US)

Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Small Caps $IWM $VXF Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 $RSP Breakout; U.S. Dollar $DXY Failed Breakout at $104.70;...

Vermilion Research

Palm Valley Capital Fund Q3 2022 Commentary

The Palm Valley Capital Fund invests in small cap stocks. While our Fund is new, its underlying absolute return-based investment strategy is not....

Fund Newsletters

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Improving, But Can It Last?

We continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day...

Vermilion Research

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