IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ctos-digital-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33496:1" rel="noopener">CTOS Digital (1054055D MK)</a> is a regional market leader for credit bureaux in the ASEAN region, with a presence in Malaysia and Thailand. CTOS is Malaysia’s leading CRA (credit reporting agency), with a revenue market share of 71.2% in 2020, according to IMR.  CTOS has launched an IPO to raise RM1.2 billion ($290 million) at an initial price of RM1.10 per share. The primary/secondary split is 18%/82%. The selling shareholders are Inodes (backed by the Creador Group), Chung Tze Keong (co-founder), Chung Tze Wen (co-founder) and Ng Gaik Lin. Pricing will be announced on 7 July and the shares will be listed on 19 July.CTOS has a dominant position in Malaysia, which is the second-largest CRA market in ASEAN by revenue. The recent acquisition of Basis, a Malaysian CRA, further cements its position in Malaysia. CTOS' market share is supported by the industry’s high barriers to entry, CTOS’s proprietary database ecosystem and a full suite of digital solutions with a focus on new value-added services. CTOS’ acquisition strategy has also enabled it to gain a foothold in merging credit reporting markets outside of Malaysia. For example, the acquisition of a 20% interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/business-online-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18347:1" rel="noopener">Business Online (BOL TB)</a>, the largest credit bureaux in Thailand, provides an entry point into the Thai market.    <div class="content-highlight">CTOS is complementing its strong market position by delivering solid revenue growth (on a like-for-like basis), strong customer retention rates, sector leading margin and strong cash generation. Overall, we think that the CTOS story warrants a closer look.  We will discuss valuation in our next note.  </div>

CTOS Digital (1054055D MK) is a regional market leader for credit bureaux in the ASEAN region, with a presence in Malaysia and Thailand. CTOS is Malaysia’s leading CRA (credit reporting agency), with a revenue market share of 71.2% in 2020, according to IMR.  CTOS has launched an IPO to raise RM1.2 billion ($290 million) at an initial price of RM1.10 per share. The primary/secondary split is 18%/82%. The selling shareholders are Inodes (backed by the Creador Group), Chung Tze Keong (co-founder), Chung Tze Wen (co-founder) and Ng Gaik Lin. Pricing will be announced on 7 July and the shares will be listed on 19 July.CTOS has a dominant position in Malaysia, which is the second-largest CRA market in ASEAN by revenue. The recent acquisition of Basis, a Malaysian CRA, further cements its position in Malaysia. CTOS' market share is supported by the industry’s high barriers to entry, CTOS’s proprietary database ecosystem and a full suite of digital solutions with a focus on new value-added services. CTOS’ acquisition strategy has also enabled it to gain a foothold in merging credit reporting markets outside of Malaysia. For example, the acquisition of a 20% interest in Business Online (BOL TB), the largest credit bureaux in Thailand, provides an entry point into the Thai market.    CTOS is complementing its strong market position by delivering solid revenue growth (on a like-for-like basis), strong customer retention rates, sector leading margin and strong cash generation. Overall, we think that the CTOS story warrants a closer look.  We will discuss valuation in our next note.  

CTOS Digital IPO Initiation: Keeping Tabs

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

CTOS Digital (CTOS) aims to raise up to US$300m via its Malaysian IPO. It is majority owned by Creador, a PE firm. CTOS is an investment holding whose subsidiaries are principally involved in the business of credit reporting, digital software related services, software development, outsourcing and training services and investment holding.CTOS was the largest credit reporting agency (CRA) in Malaysia with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 71.2% in 2020 according to the IMR Report. Its associate, Experian, was the second largest CRA in Malaysia, with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 17.5%.

CTOS Digital (CTOS) aims to raise up to US$300m via its Malaysian IPO. It is majority owned by Creador, a PE firm. CTOS is an investment holding whose subsidiaries are principally involved in the business of credit reporting, digital software related services, software development, outsourcing and training services and investment holding.CTOS was the largest credit reporting agency (CRA) in Malaysia with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 71.2% in 2020 according to the IMR Report. Its associate, Experian, was the second largest CRA in Malaysia, with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 17.5%.

CTOS Digital Pre-IPO - Credit Where Credit’s Due

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>CreditTech, Ant Group’s credit arm, is one of its key growth areas, accounting for 39% of revenues in 1H20</li>
<li>Zhima Credit (Sesame Credit) acts as the group’s credit scoring gateway to assess the credit risk of Alipay users and merchants as potential borrowers</li>
<li>Zhima Credit adds value by providing Ant Group’s partner banks and affiliate lender MYbank with superior credit data, by tapping into alternative big data as well as public data</li>
<li>Effectively, Zhima Credit acts as a credit risk filter to provide enhanced underwriting performance; this has contributed to a low delinquency rate and low cost of risk</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial (1051260D CH)</a> only retains c 2% of the total credit originated, yet good credit quality matters to Ant’s long term relationship with its partner banks as well as to its revenue stream and its SMB exposure via MYbank</li>
<li>In short, through Zhima Credit Ant Group has a Big Data opportunity in China by leveraging its data on 711m Alipay users and 80m plus merchants, and then aggregating and applying this data not only to expand its CreditTech arm, but also to potentially turning Zhima Credit into its own Big Data profit centre</li>
<li>At the mid-point of the assumed Ant IPO valuation range, we believe that Ant’s prospective trading multiples are attractive relative to the listed credit bureaus, and Ant Group is also attractive versus its Chinese MegaTech peers</li>
<li>Risks to our positive view on Ant Group and its Big Data prospects include increased competition from its core competitors, as well as banks, and also increased regulatory scrutiny and restrictions on the largest Chinese FinTech players</li>
</ul>


CreditTech, Ant Group’s credit arm, is one of its key growth areas, accounting for 39% of revenues in 1H20
Zhima Credit (Sesame Credit) acts as the group’s credit scoring gateway to assess the credit risk of Alipay users and merchants as potential borrowers
Zhima Credit adds value by providing Ant Group’s partner banks and affiliate lender MYbank with superior credit data, by tapping into alternative big data as well as public data
Effectively, Zhima Credit acts as a credit risk filter to provide enhanced underwriting performance; this has contributed to a low delinquency rate and low cost of risk

Ant Financial (1051260D CH) only retains c 2% of the total credit originated, yet good credit quality matters to Ant’s long term relationship with its partner banks as well as to its revenue stream and its SMB exposure via MYbank
In short, through Zhima Credit Ant Group has a Big Data opportunity in China by leveraging its data on 711m Alipay users and 80m plus merchants, and then aggregating and applying this data not only to expand its CreditTech arm, but also to potentially turning Zhima Credit into its own Big Data profit centre
At the mid-point of the assumed Ant IPO valuation range, we believe that Ant’s prospective trading multiples are attractive relative to the listed credit bureaus, and Ant Group is also attractive versus its Chinese MegaTech peers
Risks to our positive view on Ant Group and its Big Data prospects include increased competition from its core competitors, as well as banks, and also increased regulatory scrutiny and restrictions on the largest Chinese FinTech players


TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Ireland

Experian PLC offers credit and marketing services.  The Company manages large databases that enable credit granting and monitoring, and help minimize fraud and credit risk; offers specialist analytical solutions for credit scoring, risk management, and processing applications; processes checks and credit cards; and offers consumers credit reports and scores.

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Experian PLC (EXPN LN)

CTOS Digital IPO Initiation: Keeping Tabs

CTOS is complementing its strong market position by delivering solid growth, strong customer retention rates, sector leading margin and strong cash...

Arun George

CTOS Digital Pre-IPO - Credit Where Credit’s Due

CTOS Digital (CTOS) aims to raise up to US$300m via its Malaysian IPO. It is majority owned by Creador, a PE firm. It has an over 70% market share...

Sumeet Singh

Emerging Markets Breaking Out

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1...

Vermilion Research

Ant Group: The Big Data Opportunity

CreditTech, Ant Group’s credit arm, is one of its key growth areas, accounting for 39% of revenues in 1H20 Zhima Credit (Sesame Credit) acts as...

Victor Galliano

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

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