Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> rallied 14% on Monday in the US on news that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a>'s Covid19 vaccine had been found highly effective, and that distribution of the vaccine would begin before the end of 2020. Many travel-related stocks, such as airlines (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-airlines-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3663:1" rel="noopener">American Airlines Group (AAL US)</a>, +15%) and cruise operators (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-caribbean-cruises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1629:1" rel="noopener">Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL US)</a>, +29%) also rallied by 10% or more. We have anticipated a rebound in Chinese travel-related shares when there is positive news about a 'normalization' of travel, especially cross-border travel, which has been hit harder than domestic travel. As investors in Chinese travel-related stocks begin thinking about a return to 'normal' market conditions for the sector, now is probably a good time to revisit what 'normal' means. In the months prior to the emergence of Covid19, Chinese travel demand -- outbound and domestic -- was by several measures quite weak. While there will likely be a brief period in 2021 during which pent-up demand is finally met with easing travel restrictions, we believe that in the medium-term demand growth will sink back to the single digits.

Trip.com (TCOM US) rallied 14% on Monday in the US on news that Pfizer Inc (PFE US)'s Covid19 vaccine had been found highly effective, and that distribution of the vaccine would begin before the end of 2020. Many travel-related stocks, such as airlines (American Airlines Group (AAL US), +15%) and cruise operators (Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL US), +29%) also rallied by 10% or more. We have anticipated a rebound in Chinese travel-related shares when there is positive news about a 'normalization' of travel, especially cross-border travel, which has been hit harder than domestic travel. As investors in Chinese travel-related stocks begin thinking about a return to 'normal' market conditions for the sector, now is probably a good time to revisit what 'normal' means. In the months prior to the emergence of Covid19, Chinese travel demand -- outbound and domestic -- was by several measures quite weak. While there will likely be a brief period in 2021 during which pent-up demand is finally met with easing travel restrictions, we believe that in the medium-term demand growth will sink back to the single digits. 

Trip.com Rallies 14% on Vaccine News. But What's the 'Normal' We'll Return To in 2021?

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

With the Q2/20 earnings season completed and Q3 season underway, the impact of COVID-19 on the credit profiles of issuers under our coverage is becoming more visible. Several companies have already achieved solid recoveries in Q3, as reflected by their results. However, new government-imposed lockdowns will have a substantial impact on the Q4 numbers.  We believe it is useful to analyse how COVID-19 has impacted companies at the height of the pandemic in Q2/20. As such, we provide an overview of the development of credit stats and liquidity, followed by brief round-ups of the developments and outlooks in the industries and various companies that we cover.

  With the Q2/20 earnings season completed and Q3 season underway, the impact of COVID-19 on the credit profiles of issuers under our coverage is becoming more visible. Several companies have already achieved solid recoveries in Q3, as reflected by their results. However, new government-imposed lockdowns will have a substantial impact on the Q4 numbers.    We believe it is useful to analyse how COVID-19 has impacted companies at the height of the pandemic in Q2/20. As such, we provide an overview of the development of credit stats and liquidity, followed by brief round-ups of the developments and outlooks in the industries and various companies that we cover. 

Europe HY – Q2/20 Results Review And Credit Metrics Amid COVID-19 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

As we approach the meat of earnings season this week, we give our take on which tech stocks its worth taking earnings risk on. Yea, we still like Amazon. But Google may be poised for the most explosive earnings reaction.

As we approach the meat of earnings season this week, we give our take on which tech stocks its worth taking earnings risk on. Yea, we still like Amazon. But Google may be poised for the most explosive earnings reaction. 

The Europe HY Trade Book for September 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for September 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - September 2020 - Lucror Analytics

United States

Expedia Group, Inc. provides branded online travel services for leisure and small business travelers. The Company offers a wide range of travel shopping and reservation services, providing real-time access to schedule, pricing and availability information for airlines, hotels, and car rental companies.

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Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE US)

Trip.com Rallies 14% on Vaccine News. But What's the 'Normal' We'll Return To in 2021?

An effective vaccine is part of what will get China and the world back to 'normal' travel demand. But even before Covid19 erupted, Chinese travel...

Tracking Traffic

Europe HY – Q2/20 Results Review And Credit Metrics Amid COVID-19 - Lucror Analytics

With the Q2/20 earnings season completed and Q3 season underway, the impact of COVID-19 on the credit profiles of issuers under our coverage is...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

3Q20 Best Bets: Mega Cap Wins

Some top of mind thinking about large cap TMT earnings heading into the thick of the meat grinder which is earnings season. We like secular...

Aaron Gabin

Europe HY Trade Book - September 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for September 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

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