Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.</li>
<li>Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.
Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up +14% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Some Changes to Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining</a>'s stock price has moved higher over the last year as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold</a> has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a> has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.</li>
<li>Positioning has jumped in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a> and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



Evolution Mining's stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.

Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.


Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

<ul>
<li>There are 2 adds and 3 deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in September. Plus there are capping and float changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 11.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn. There are 16 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b2gold-corp-fee72de9-9219-4f08-9e4a-eff9db71e070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33420:1" rel="noopener">B2Gold Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-american-silver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25399:1" rel="noopener">Pan American Silver</a> while the largest outflows are from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp-4566bc5d-6053-4c59-9b54-891e37079607" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33288:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cia-de-minas-buenaventura-saa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27674:1" rel="noopener">Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 adds and 3 deletes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. Plus there are capping and float changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 11.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn. There are 16 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The largest inflows are expected in B2Gold Corp, Evolution Mining and Pan American Silver while the largest outflows are from Kinross Gold and Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Gold's advance is accelerating in the face of increased global uncertainty and inflation expectations. </li>
<li>The price is now asymmetric based on various economic outcomes, including a renewed safe-haven status during the global trade war.</li>
<li>The ratio of gold to the S&amp;P remains at depressed levels but is starting to reverse as the S&amp;P continues its bear market.</li>
</ul>


Gold's advance is accelerating in the face of increased global uncertainty and inflation expectations. 
The price is now asymmetric based on various economic outcomes, including a renewed safe-haven status during the global trade war.
The ratio of gold to the S&amp;P remains at depressed levels but is starting to reverse as the S&amp;P continues its bear market.


Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. </li>
<li>Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.</li>
<li>Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.</li>
</ul>


Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. 
Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.
Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.


Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Australia

Evolution Mining Ltd is a gold exploration company with operations in Western Australia. The Company owns the gold mines -Cracow, Edna May, Mt Rawdon, and Pajingo - and the Mt Carlton development project.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Evolution Mining (EVN AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up +14% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Some Changes to Expectations

Collectively, there could be US$416mn one-way flow for the ASX index family in June 2025. Most of the expected index changes could have multiple...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA