Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 6-12 October 2023

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Real estate sales in China increased in September from the previous month following efforts by some of the country’s biggest cities to spur homebuying.</li><li>Last month, new property sales by China’s 100 largest developers grew 17.9% from August to 404.3 billion yuan ($55.4 billion), following two straight month-on-month declines, according to data provided Saturday by consultancy China Real Estate Information Corp. (CRIC). </li><li>More than 60% of the developers reported month-on-month sales increases in September, with 29 registering jumps of more than 30%, the data showed.</li></ul>

Real estate sales in China increased in September from the previous month following efforts by some of the country’s biggest cities to spur homebuying.Last month, new property sales by China’s 100 largest developers grew 17.9% from August to 404.3 billion yuan ($55.4 billion), following two straight month-on-month declines, according to data provided Saturday by consultancy China Real Estate Information Corp. (CRIC). More than 60% of the developers reported month-on-month sales increases in September, with 29 registering jumps of more than 30%, the data showed.

China’s Real Estate Market Gets Some Relief in September on Policy Changes

<ul>
<li>In this note, we explore some aspects of the composition of Country Garden's projects - the cities and provinces where Country Garden has the most exposure</li>
<li>We overlay the disclosure data on exposure by province and top projects, with a few housing market metrics</li>
<li>Drawing on wider data, we compare the scale of Country Garden and Evergrande in greater detail</li>
</ul>


In this note, we explore some aspects of the composition of Country Garden's projects - the cities and provinces where Country Garden has the most exposure
We overlay the disclosure data on exposure by province and top projects, with a few housing market metrics
Drawing on wider data, we compare the scale of Country Garden and Evergrande in greater detail


Country Garden - Exploring The Project Portfolio Profile

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Early indications for the Golden Week suggest new home sales in the 18 major cities (with consistent data we track) deteriorated further on multiple metrics</li>
<li>There might be some data distortions due to delays in reporting over the holiday </li>
<li>For the full picture, we would wait another 1-2 weeks and look at the Golden Week and 1-2 weeks surrounding it</li>
</ul>


Early indications for the Golden Week suggest new home sales in the 18 major cities (with consistent data we track) deteriorated further on multiple metrics
There might be some data distortions due to delays in reporting over the holiday 
For the full picture, we would wait another 1-2 weeks and look at the Golden Week and 1-2 weeks surrounding it


China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.</p>In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>AAC Technologies Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/vedanta-resources-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Vedanta Resources</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Vanke </a></li><li><a href='/entities/jsw-infrastructure' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>JSW Infrastructure</a></li><li><a href='/entities/medco-energi-internasional-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Medco Energi</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:AAC Technologies HoldingsVedanta ResourcesChina Vanke JSW InfrastructureMedco Energiand more...

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 6-12 October 2023

A weekly (Oct 6-12) curated selection of Chinese news for developers in distress, including deals, updates, project progress, and market...

Robert Ciemniak

China’s Real Estate Market Gets Some Relief in September on Policy Changes

Real estate sales in China increased in September from the previous month following efforts by some of the country’s biggest cities to spur...

Caixin Global

Country Garden - Exploring The Project Portfolio Profile

Against the backdrop of today's disclosure by Country Garden, this piece can serve as a background read on the underlying assets - a few weeks ago...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...

Robert Ciemniak

Weekly Wrap - 06 Oct 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 6-12 October 2023

​A weekly (Oct 6-12) curated selection of Chinese news for developers in distress, including deals, updates, project progress, and market...

Robert Ciemniak

China’s Real Estate Market Gets Some Relief in September on Policy Changes

Real estate sales in China increased in September from the previous month following efforts by some of the country’s biggest cities to spur...

Caixin Global

Country Garden - Exploring The Project Portfolio Profile

Against the backdrop of today's disclosure by Country Garden, this piece can serve as a background read on the underlying assets - a few weeks ago...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

​China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...

Robert Ciemniak

Weekly Wrap - 06 Oct 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

A weekly (Oct 6-12) curated selection of Chinese news for developers in distress, including deals, updates, project progress, and market...

China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...