Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a></strong>'s 64.7% stake in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a></strong> (now Indonesia’s largest company by market cap), is worth 8x its market cap. That's unsustainable.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the Barito complex are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)'s 64.7% stake in Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) (now Indonesia’s largest company by market cap), is worth 8x its market cap. That's unsustainable.
Preceding my comments on the Barito complex are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Barito Renewables (BREN IJ) - This Too Shall Pop

Financial sector veteran, KT Capital Group

Fern Wang

Financial sector veteran

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Temporary implications of Evergrande's court ruling on property sector sentiment and other troubled property developers' restructuring plans</li>
<li>Evergrande's situation is more complicated than that of other troubled developers, as its founder is still under arrest and the company is unable to issue new debts.</li>
<li>Cross-Border bankruptcy cases for Chinese companies are still relatively rare, making the recognition and enforcement of Hong Kong bankruptcy judgments by the PRC court uncertain</li>
</ul>


Temporary implications of Evergrande's court ruling on property sector sentiment and other troubled property developers' restructuring plans
Evergrande's situation is more complicated than that of other troubled developers, as its founder is still under arrest and the company is unable to issue new debts.
Cross-Border bankruptcy cases for Chinese companies are still relatively rare, making the recognition and enforcement of Hong Kong bankruptcy judgments by the PRC court uncertain


Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years</li>
<li>This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown</li>
<li>We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets</li>
</ul>


Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years
This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown
We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets


Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>Tune in for our Flash Webinar as we look at recent developments at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a>. The highly indebted real estate company saw its share price jump from four-year lows on the resolution of a dispute with a Chinese bank, but trouble for China's largest property developer seems far from over. Join us for a discussion with Insight Providers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/charles-macgregor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7100" rel="noopener">Charles Macgregor</a> on the current situation and where the company goes from here.</p>
<h3>The flash webinar was hosted on Friday, 23 July 2021, 4.00pm SGT/HKT.</h3>
<p>Listen to the session on the go and subscribe to our podcast feed:</p>
<p><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/2id54rKfchERwMyxvDWs4U?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="232" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture"></iframe></p>
<p>Travis Lundy has 20+ years of experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies, with most of that time spent managing money.</p>
<p>Charles Macgregor is an industry veteran with over 35 years of experience. As Head of Asia, he is responsible for the Asian credit research product at Lucror, which he joined in 2013. Previously, he had worked for Deutsche Asset Management, where he was Head of Credit Research, Asia-Pacific and Co-Chair of their Global Credit Methodology Committee. He also worked at Moody’s, where he was a Senior Credit Officer and a member of their New Instruments Committee and Symbols &amp; Definitions Committee.</p>

Tune in for our Flash Webinar as we look at recent developments at Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK). The highly indebted real estate company saw its share price jump from four-year lows on the resolution of a dispute with a Chinese bank, but trouble for China's largest property developer seems far from over. Join us for a discussion with Insight Providers Travis Lundy and  Charles Macgregor on the current situation and where the company goes from here.
The flash webinar was hosted on Friday, 23 July 2021, 4.00pm SGT/HKT.
Listen to the session on the go and subscribe to our podcast feed:

Travis Lundy has 20+ years of experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies, with most of that time spent managing money.
Charles Macgregor is an industry veteran with over 35 years of experience. As Head of Asia, he is responsible for the Asian credit research product at Lucror, which he joined in 2013. Previously, he had worked for Deutsche Asset Management, where he was Head of Credit Research, Asia-Pacific and Co-Chair of their Global Credit Methodology Committee. He also worked at Moody’s, where he was a Senior Credit Officer and a member of their New Instruments Committee and Symbols &amp; Definitions Committee.

Smartkarma Flash Webinar | Evergrande: Quantifying Risks and Potential Domino Effect

<ul>
<li>Evergrande's filing in itself does not signify a deterioration in its financials; it was already insolvent as of end 2021.</li>
<li>The bankruptcy filing provides the benefits of automatic stay and is a necessary step to validate the Group's offshore restructuring plan. </li>
<li>Evergrande's long term viability still depends on recovery of the China property market. </li>
</ul>


Evergrande's filing in itself does not signify a deterioration in its financials; it was already insolvent as of end 2021.
The bankruptcy filing provides the benefits of automatic stay and is a necessary step to validate the Group's offshore restructuring plan. 
Evergrande's long term viability still depends on recovery of the China property market. 


Why Evergrande’s Bankruptcy Filing Is a Positive Development

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

StubWorld: Barito Renewables (BREN IJ) - This Too Shall Pop

I don't know what is going on. I do know BREN's share price will decline. All stocks - parent and subs - are uninvestable in my view.

David Blennerhassett

Evergrande's Wind-Up Ruling Implications

Evergrande's wind-up ruling offers limited relief to investors. It will not, however, preclude other developers to reach a deal with their creditors.

Fern Wang

Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

China Property - Take a tour of these four data visualizations/animations of the city-level house price changes to get a finer perspective on...

Robert Ciemniak

Smartkarma Flash Webinar | Evergrande: Quantifying Risks and Potential Domino Effect

Join us for a flash webinar on 23 July, 4pm SGT, as we welcome Travis Lundy and Charles Macgregor to discuss recent developments at Evergrande Real...

Smartkarma Research

Why Evergrande’s Bankruptcy Filing Is a Positive Development

Evergrande's bankruptcy petition is a positive development for its long negotiated restructuring plan, providing temporary protection against...

Fern Wang

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