Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<p>As we have said many time before, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> 2021 and 2022 dividend futures are a structural sell due to changes to the index composition that will lower the fair value of the futures.</p><p>There were 18 inclusions and 17 deletions from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in 2020 with a shift from higher dividend yield Financials and Energy stocks to lower dividend yield stocks (or zero dividend yield stocks) from the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors.</p><p>We see this trend continuing in 2021 with quite a few changes front-loaded that will affect the fair value of the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures. More changes at the back end along with potential changes to the index methodology could lower the fair value of the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures too.</p><p>In this Insight, we lay out the possible changes to the index constituents and to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> methodology that will impact the dividend futures.</p>

As we have said many time before, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) 2021 and 2022 dividend futures are a structural sell due to changes to the index composition that will lower the fair value of the futures.There were 18 inclusions and 17 deletions from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in 2020 with a shift from higher dividend yield Financials and Energy stocks to lower dividend yield stocks (or zero dividend yield stocks) from the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors.We see this trend continuing in 2021 with quite a few changes front-loaded that will affect the fair value of the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures. More changes at the back end along with potential changes to the index methodology could lower the fair value of the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures too.In this Insight, we lay out the possible changes to the index constituents and to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) methodology that will impact the dividend futures.

HSCEI Dividends - Structural Sell; Bank Dividends the Swing Factor

<p>There are a lot of changes expected to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> over the next 6 months.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> lists on 5 February and we expect the stock to get Fast Entry to the index with the change implemented at the close of trading on 22 February.</p><p>The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) will announce the results of the March 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March. We expect 1 inclusion and 3 exclusions at the review.</p><p>At the current time, we expect 3 changes at the June 2021 review. There are a few stocks that are close adds and deletes and the actual number of changes could be higher.</p><p>There are a few large IPOs that could take place this year that could get those stocks Fast Entry/ regular entry into the index. The main ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH)</a>, JD Logistics, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a>'s Douyin and a possible revival of the shelved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> IPO.</p><p>Then there is the possibility of some large 'homecoming' listings getting included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> over the next few reviews. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> is rumored to have picked banks and is said to plan a listing in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> as other names on the list.</p><p>In this Insight, we lay out the potential roadmap of upcoming changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> along with the impact on the stocks.</p>

There are a lot of changes expected to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) over the next 6 months.Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) lists on 5 February and we expect the stock to get Fast Entry to the index with the change implemented at the close of trading on 22 February.The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) will announce the results of the March 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March. We expect 1 inclusion and 3 exclusions at the review.At the current time, we expect 3 changes at the June 2021 review. There are a few stocks that are close adds and deletes and the actual number of changes could be higher.There are a few large IPOs that could take place this year that could get those stocks Fast Entry/ regular entry into the index. The main ones are DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH), JD Logistics, ByteDance (1460967D CH)'s Douyin and a possible revival of the shelved Ant Group (6688 HK) IPO.Then there is the possibility of some large 'homecoming' listings getting included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) over the next few reviews. Baidu (BIDU US) is rumored to have picked banks and is said to plan a listing in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, with Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Bilibili Inc (BILI US) as other names on the list.In this Insight, we lay out the potential roadmap of upcoming changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) along with the impact on the stocks.

HSCEI Index Rebalances - The Year of the Ox and of More Change

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a> plumbs a new discount to NAV low after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a>'s meteoric post-placement gain; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> discount to NAV retraces, as expected; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a> still look cheap versus its sum of parts.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on these holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...

Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) plumbs a new discount to NAV low after Evergrande Auto (708 HK)'s meteoric post-placement gain; PCCW Ltd (8 HK) discount to NAV retraces, as expected; and LG Corp (003550 KS) still look cheap versus its sum of parts.




Preceding my comments on these holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Evergrande Auto, PCCW, LG Corp

Tianneng Power International / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>On the 9 November 2018, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianneng-power-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18978:1" rel="noopener">Tianneng Power Intl (819 HK)</a> ("TPI") <a href="http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2018/1109/LTN201811091011.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the possible spin-off and separate listing of Tianneng Battery Group ("TBG"). This is the same entity TPI attempted to list back in <a href="http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2015/1123/LTN20151123195.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">November 2015</a>. </p>
<p>Further announcements followed, culminating in a circular to shareholders on the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/0624/ltn201906241058.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">24 June 2019</a> seeking shareholder approval to list TBG on the Science and Technology Innovation Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange - better known as the Star Market. That approval was received at an EGM on the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/0712/ltn20190712674.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">12 July 2019</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/1230/2019123001609.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">December 2019</a> announcement discussed the potential to raise RMB3.6bn from the listing. </p>
<p>Finally, on the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0706/2020070602268.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6 July</a>, the Star Market listing committee approved the listing. This week, TPI announced that proposed A-share listing on the Star Board has been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1215/2020121501202.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> by the CSRC.</p>
<p>The majority of TPI's assets and earnings are sourced from TBG. Shares gained 17% on the CSRC approval news and are now up 180% in the past 12 months. Is there more left in the tank?</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>

On the 9 November 2018, Tianneng Power Intl (819 HK) ("TPI") announced the possible spin-off and separate listing of Tianneng Battery Group ("TBG"). This is the same entity TPI attempted to list back in November 2015. 
Further announcements followed, culminating in a circular to shareholders on the 24 June 2019 seeking shareholder approval to list TBG on the Science and Technology Innovation Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange - better known as the Star Market. That approval was received at an EGM on the 12 July 2019. 
A December 2019 announcement discussed the potential to raise RMB3.6bn from the listing. 
Finally, on the 6 July, the Star Market listing committee approved the listing. This week, TPI announced that proposed A-share listing on the Star Board has been approved by the CSRC.
The majority of TPI's assets and earnings are sourced from TBG. Shares gained 17% on the CSRC approval news and are now up 180% in the past 12 months. Is there more left in the tank?
More below the fold.

Tianneng (819 HK): Battery Spin-Off And The Tesla Effect

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Evergrande Property Services / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Services (EGS HK)</a> is a Chinese property management provider. Evergrande ranked fourth in GFA under management, among the Top 100 property management companies in China in 2019, according to CIA. The controlling shareholder is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a>. Evergrande is joining the ever-expanding list of property management IPOs by seeking to raise $2 billion, according to press reports.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Property developers continue to spin-off their property management arms due to tight credit conditions. However, investors are spoiled for choice due to the plethora of opportunities to gain exposure to the Chinese property management sector through listed companies and a healthy queue of IPO hopefuls. An IPO hopeful needs to offer a combination of strong fundamentals and/or attractive valuation to grab attention. Overall, Evergrande’s fundamentals are attractive, in our view. </p></div>

Evergrande Services (EGS HK) is a Chinese property management provider. Evergrande ranked fourth in GFA under management, among the Top 100 property management companies in China in 2019, according to CIA. The controlling shareholder is Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK). Evergrande is joining the ever-expanding list of property management IPOs by seeking to raise $2 billion, according to press reports.  Property developers continue to spin-off their property management arms due to tight credit conditions. However, investors are spoiled for choice due to the plethora of opportunities to gain exposure to the Chinese property management sector through listed companies and a healthy queue of IPO hopefuls. An IPO hopeful needs to offer a combination of strong fundamentals and/or attractive valuation to grab attention. Overall, Evergrande’s fundamentals are attractive, in our view. 

Evergrande Property Services IPO Initiation: Standing Out

China

Evergrande Auto researches, develops, and manufactures new energy vehicles. The Company engages in vehicle manufacturing, electric motor control, power batteries, vehicle sales, smart charging, shared mobility, and more. Evergrande Auto also operates health management businesses.

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Evergrande Auto (708 HK)

HSCEI Dividends - Structural Sell; Bank Dividends the Swing Factor

We see downside in the HSCEI 2021 and 2022 div futures due to changes in the index composition and potential changes in the index methodology....

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalances - The Year of the Ox and of More Change

There will be a lot of changes to the HSCEI this year that will impact the sectoral composition and open up trading opportunities on the stocks and...

Brian Freitas

StubWorld: Evergrande Auto, PCCW, LG Corp

Chine Evergrande (3333 HK) looks "cheap" and Evergrande Auto (708 HK) frothy, suggesting a set-up here. Personally, I would avoid both.

David Blennerhassett

Tianneng (819 HK): Battery Spin-Off And The Tesla Effect

The Star Market will welcome another battery manufacturer, one that is an up & coming supplier of lithium batteries, and one that promotes and...

David Blennerhassett

Evergrande Property Services IPO Initiation: Standing Out

Evergrande is joining the ever-expanding list of property management IPOs by seeking to raise $2 billion, according to press reports. Overall,...

Arun George

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