Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March 2023 regular rebalance index changes for the SE600 index and the EUROSTX index were announced yesterday. </li>
<li>There are 8 ADDs/DELs for the SE600 index and 5 ADDs and 2 DELs for the EUROSTX index.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations and the historical performance of SE600 and EUROSTX Rebalance events.</li>
</ul>


The March 2023 regular rebalance index changes for the SE600 index and the EUROSTX index were announced yesterday. 
There are 8 ADDs/DELs for the SE600 index and 5 ADDs and 2 DELs for the EUROSTX index.
In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations and the historical performance of SE600 and EUROSTX Rebalance events.


SE600 Mar 23 Rebal: Final Changes and Historical Performance Analysis

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes</li>
<li>There has been four failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last five trading days.</li>
<li>These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. Attractive stocks: TPX, LZB, SNBR, ETD, HOFT, FLXS, KEX, SBLK, CMRE, DAC, EGLE, GNK, ASC, GSL, DSX, SB, NM, EURN, more</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes
There has been four failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last five trading days.
These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. Attractive stocks: TPX, LZB, SNBR, ETD, HOFT, FLXS, KEX, SBLK, CMRE, DAC, EGLE, GNK, ASC, GSL, DSX, SB, NM, EURN, more


Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)</li>
<li>Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.</li>
</ul>


We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.


Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I see five ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 Index during the March 2023 review.</li>
<li>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electricite-de-france-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21441:1" rel="noopener">Electricite De France Sa (EDF FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vantage-towers-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35602:1" rel="noopener">Vantage Towers (VTWR GR)</a> could have index outflows triggered by extraordinary float adjustments before or during the March 2023 review. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.
Based on the latest available data, I see five ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 Index during the March 2023 review.
Separately, Electricite De France Sa (EDF FP) and Vantage Towers (VTWR GR) could have index outflows triggered by extraordinary float adjustments before or during the March 2023 review. 


Quiddity Leaderboard STOXX Europe Mar 23: 5 ADDs/DELs and Potential Downweights for EDF and VTWR

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.</li>
<li>Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.</li>
<li>As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.
Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.
As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.


Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

United States

Euronav NV is a shipping company. The Company is engaged in the ownership, operation and management of tankers for the carriage of crude oil.

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Euronav NV (EURN US)

SE600 Mar 23 Rebal: Final Changes and Historical Performance Analysis

The SHORT DELs - LONG Index trade seems interesting as historically the DELs have strongly outperformed the index from announcement to exclusion.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

Signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes with 4 failed attempts to reclaim $190 on $IWM and $297 on $QQQ over the...

Vermilion Research

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

We continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500, but a trip to 4300-4325 is possible. We continue to preach caution. Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard STOXX Europe Mar 23: 5 ADDs/DELs and Potential Downweights for EDF and VTWR

At present, there are multiple names hovering around the borders requiring fairly small price gains/drops to become ADDs/DELs in the March 2023...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

The bear market rally we have been discussing since Sept. 27 has begun, with over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes $SPX $QQQ $NDX...

Vermilion Research

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