FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>Alternative measures of core inflation in the US, including the Dallas Fed’s PCE trimmed mean measures, show inflation is now very close to the Fed’s mandate and in a rising trend.  Core CPI measures, including the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean and median, are well above the mandate.  Inflation trends globally appear to have turned higher, including in China, the USA’s biggest source of imported goods.  The NY Fed’s survey of inflation expectations was at an 18-month high in January.  Jobless claims were at a record low last week, and a range of activity indicators show rising and above trend growth; including the ISM manufacturing new orders index rising in February to equal the peak in 2013.  While there has been much focus on Trump’s economic policy proposals, current indicators suggest that the Fed may have fallen behind the curve.  Apart from hiking on 15 March, now widely expected, the Fed may also upgrade its forecast for rates and its risk assessment.  The USD has significantly underperformed the improvement in its yield advantage over the last 18 months.  Even though the USD is at historically high levels, compared to relative interest rates, it now appears cheap against most currency pairs.  The NZD appears to be one of the most over-valued currencies compared to yield spreads and would be vulnerable to any pullback in global risk appetite or a further rise in global bond yields.</em></p>

Alternative measures of core inflation in the US, including the Dallas Fed’s PCE trimmed mean measures, show inflation is now very close to the Fed’s mandate and in a rising trend.  Core CPI measures, including the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean and median, are well above the mandate.  Inflation trends globally appear to have turned higher, including in China, the USA’s biggest source of imported goods.  The NY Fed’s survey of inflation expectations was at an 18-month high in January.  Jobless claims were at a record low last week, and a range of activity indicators show rising and above trend growth; including the ISM manufacturing new orders index rising in February to equal the peak in 2013.  While there has been much focus on Trump’s economic policy proposals, current indicators suggest that the Fed may have fallen behind the curve.  Apart from hiking on 15 March, now widely expected, the Fed may also upgrade its forecast for rates and its risk assessment.  The USD has significantly underperformed the improvement in its yield advantage over the last 18 months.  Even though the USD is at historically high levels, compared to relative interest rates, it now appears cheap against most currency pairs.  The NZD appears to be one of the most over-valued currencies compared to yield spreads and would be vulnerable to any pullback in global risk appetite or a further rise in global bond yields.

Fed Already Behind the Curve, USD Looks Cheap Compared to Yield Gaps, NZD Expensive

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Wednesday 1 March 2017</p><div><strong>USD rally sequence</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/Z96hDgpULaxr" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/Z96hDgpULaxr&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1488436094483000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFKjHZynmAF_btWsDTx_wCmsVi0mw">http://www.screencast.com/t/Z96hDgpULaxr</a> </strong>10:04 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/754/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1488349798" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="21754"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
</div><div>
<strong>T-Note top in line with yield spike call</strong>. After a sharp drop in the T-Note price we touted from 125.60, we face an uptick sequence on any Trump disappointment given pattern support lies at 124.50. The real test comes with Yellen and NFP Friday. Again this rising wedge pattern implies a downside surprise in price action/upside surprise in yield in…</div>

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 1 March 2017USD rally sequenceTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/Z96hDgpULaxr 10:04 min.
FX webcast

T-Note top in line with yield spike call. After a sharp drop in the T-Note price we touted from 125.60, we face an uptick sequence on any Trump disappointment given pattern support lies at 124.50. The real test comes with Yellen and NFP Friday. Again this rising wedge pattern implies a downside surprise in price action/upside surprise in yield in…

USD Rally Sequence on Back of Yield Surprise

<p><strong>Chartonics FX webcast </strong>Thursday 23 February 2017 </p><p><strong>Euro 1.05 inflection ripples-waves</strong></p><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/douoFccY" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/douoFccY</a> </strong>13:10 min.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/423/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1487835674" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="21423"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div><p><strong>DXY </strong>– DXY failure to clear 101.80 was touted as the rejection level for a USD fade back to DXY 100. While we have yet to kiss the 100 support zone the second test on 101.80 in encouraging for the bulls but still calls for a tactical give back which must hold DXY 99 and would prefer to hold DXY 100 support. It aligns with Euro 1.05…</p>

Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 23 February 2017 Euro 1.05 inflection ripples-wavesTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/douoFccY 13:10 min.FX webcastDXY – DXY failure to clear 101.80 was touted as the rejection level for a USD fade back to DXY 100. While we have yet to kiss the 100 support zone the second test on 101.80 in encouraging for the bulls but still calls for a tactical give back which must hold DXY 99 and would prefer to hold DXY 100 support. It aligns with Euro 1.05…

<p><em>The EUR has underperformed most currencies this year, despite signs of strengthening economic recovery in the Eurozone.  Political risk and the Greek debt merry-go-round may be weighing on the currency.  Widening in Eurozone periphery bond spreads continues as a trend, and the alternative right contender in French elections in April/May Marine Le Pen is seen in betting markets as having as much chance of victory as the two leading moderate contenders Macron and Fillon.  Two weeks ago, Trump raised expectations of an announcement of major tax reform very soon and sounded constructive towards China and Japanese trade relations, contributing to a bounce in the USD.  However, this was soon overshadowed by controversy over his former National Security Advisor and allegations of collusion with Russia, and a pivot back to immigration policy and attacking the mainstream media.  US equities still seem to have their eyes on the tax policy prize, but the USD less so.  Indeed some obstacles and distractions may delay the tax plan, but a border adjustment tax appears central to the plan, and this should place clear upside pressure on the USD exchange rate.  Something to keep in mind as we await progress or otherwise.</em></p>

The EUR has underperformed most currencies this year, despite signs of strengthening economic recovery in the Eurozone.  Political risk and the Greek debt merry-go-round may be weighing on the currency.  Widening in Eurozone periphery bond spreads continues as a trend, and the alternative right contender in French elections in April/May Marine Le Pen is seen in betting markets as having as much chance of victory as the two leading moderate contenders Macron and Fillon.  Two weeks ago, Trump raised expectations of an announcement of major tax reform very soon and sounded constructive towards China and Japanese trade relations, contributing to a bounce in the USD.  However, this was soon overshadowed by controversy over his former National Security Advisor and allegations of collusion with Russia, and a pivot back to immigration policy and attacking the mainstream media.  US equities still seem to have their eyes on the tax policy prize, but the USD less so.  Indeed some obstacles and distractions may delay the tax plan, but a border adjustment tax appears central to the plan, and this should place clear upside pressure on the USD exchange rate.  Something to keep in mind as we await progress or otherwise.

EUR Feeling Pinch, Trump Tax Policies Would Boost USD

<p><strong>Chartonics FX webcast </strong>Friday 10 February 2017</p><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/dbfycouJ31dQ" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.screencast.com/t/dbfycouJ31dQ&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1486800850219000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFidyjVr3Hu2_wLsT8ySRdVD7XPOw">https://www.screencast.com/t/dbfycouJ31dQ</a> </strong>10:06 min.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/020/660/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1486714615" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="20660"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div><p><strong>DXY </strong>– DXY bull breakout of descending wedge needs a burst of upside momentum above 100.33. DXY 101.80 is the level to clear for the dollar to gain traction. Targets remain at 104.15, 107 (next leg up target), 111 and 117. Our call to buy the USD below DXY 100 is starting to pan out but there are still some heavier trading currencies that need to participate in…</p>

Chartonics FX webcast Friday 10 February 2017To view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/dbfycouJ31dQ 10:06 min.FX webcastDXY – DXY bull breakout of descending wedge needs a burst of upside momentum above 100.33. DXY 101.80 is the level to clear for the dollar to gain traction. Targets remain at 104.15, 107 (next leg up target), 111 and 117. Our call to buy the USD below DXY 100 is starting to pan out but there are still some heavier trading currencies that need to participate in…

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Fed Already Behind the Curve, USD Looks Cheap Compared to Yield Gaps, NZD Expensive

Alternative measures of core inflation in the US, including the Dallas Fed’s PCE trimmed mean measures, show inflation is now very close to the...

Greg Gibbs

USD Rally Sequence on Back of Yield Surprise

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 1 March 2017USD rally sequenceTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/Z96hDgpULaxr 10:04 min. T-Note...

Thomas Schroeder

Euro 1.05 Inflection Ripples

Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 23 February 2017 Euro 1.05 inflection ripples-wavesTo view click on this...

Thomas Schroeder

EUR Feeling Pinch, Trump Tax Policies Would Boost USD

The EUR has underperformed most currencies this year, despite signs of strengthening economic recovery in the Eurozone. Political risk and the...

Greg Gibbs

USD Bull Turn Follow Through Levels

Chartonics FX webcast Friday 10 February 2017To view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/dbfycouJ31dQ 10:06 min.DXY – DXY bull...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)