FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Bank analysis is not my field of expertise, but as a macro analyst of FX markets, it is hard to ignore the rapid slide in Deutsche Bank’s (DB) share price.  DB is one of the top five Globally Systemically Important Banks (G-SIB) as designated by the G20’s Financial Stability Board (FSB).  It is around the 12th largest bank globally by total asset size ($1.5tn), and yet its market cap is now only $20bn. If it is called on the raise more capital this would be a problem.  Its share price performance suggests it is highly influenced by the political risk in Italy.  We should add DB’s rapid slide in share price this year (down over 40% to revisit record lows in 2016) as a risk factor for global financial stability and in particular the Eurozone.  Considering Populists are taking over in Italy, the Spanish government is set to fall, and Trump is pursuing trade restrictions on the EU, the outlook for EUR is getting murky.

Bank analysis is not my field of expertise, but as a macro analyst of FX markets, it is hard to ignore the rapid slide in Deutsche Bank’s (DB) share price.  DB is one of the top five Globally Systemically Important Banks (G-SIB) as designated by the G20’s Financial Stability Board (FSB).  It is around the 12th largest bank globally by total asset size ($1.5tn), and yet its market cap is now only $20bn. If it is called on the raise more capital this would be a problem.  Its share price performance suggests it is highly influenced by the political risk in Italy.  We should add DB’s rapid slide in share price this year (down over 40% to revisit record lows in 2016) as a risk factor for global financial stability and in particular the Eurozone.  Considering Populists are taking over in Italy, the Spanish government is set to fall, and Trump is pursuing trade restrictions on the EU, the outlook for EUR is getting murky.

Add Deutsche Bank to the List of Risks for the EUR and Global Markets

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index has just finished a 5-wave rally off the late-March low, and this correction could carry as far as 92.20-92.70.  Another rally from there or above would more clearly finish a 5-wave rally off the Q1 low.  If it can produce that 5-waver, it would provide an initial signal that the Q1 low marked the beginning of a new bull phase, reviving the targets at 108-112.  We are downgrading to Hold from Buy, and raising the stop on that to 90.93, where a bearish overlap with the March rally high would occur.  (Charts 1 and 2).

The Dollar Index has just finished a 5-wave rally off the late-March low, and this correction could carry as far as 92.20-92.70.  Another rally from there or above would more clearly finish a 5-wave rally off the Q1 low.  If it can produce that 5-waver, it would provide an initial signal that the Q1 low marked the beginning of a new bull phase, reviving the targets at 108-112.  We are downgrading to Hold from Buy, and raising the stop on that to 90.93, where a bearish overlap with the March rally high would occur.  (Charts 1 and 2).

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Italy's political convulsions are still being discussed as mainly a fight between the "responsible" Italian establishment and the crazy extremists of left and right that won the majority of seats in March's parliamentary elections. The proposed coalition of left-nihilists and far rightists was not proposing that Italy exit the euro-zone -- only that it pursue a medley of left- and right-wing stimulus that would break Italy out of the straitjacket of EU fiscal orthodoxy. Had Germany's new…

Italy's political convulsions are still being discussed as mainly a fight between the "responsible" Italian establishment and the crazy extremists of left and right that won the majority of seats in March's parliamentary elections. The proposed coalition of left-nihilists and far rightists was not proposing that Italy exit the euro-zone -- only that it pursue a medley of left- and right-wing stimulus that would break Italy out of the straitjacket of EU fiscal orthodoxy. Had Germany's new…

Italy and Germany Are Taking the Eurozone Rapidly Toward Meltdown

Individual country preliminary inflation data for May suggest that Eurozone headline and core measures will rebound more than expected.  Without the political upheaval in Italy, the data might signal a clearer path to exiting QE and support a sizeable recovery in EUR.  Political uncertainty eased somewhat on Tuesday and EUR has rebounded, but the situation remains fluid.  US economic reports were mixed with a downward revision in Q1 PCE inflation, and softer ADP employment.  However, the Beige Book pointed to somewhat more wage and inflation pressure.  The Bank of Canada suggested that a hike at its next meeting in July would be consistent with their gradual normalisation in rates policy, necessary with inflation on target and the economy operating near capacity.  They see risks from trade policy and global stresses, but not enough to derail plans to hike soon.

Individual country preliminary inflation data for May suggest that Eurozone headline and core measures will rebound more than expected.  Without the political upheaval in Italy, the data might signal a clearer path to exiting QE and support a sizeable recovery in EUR.  Political uncertainty eased somewhat on Tuesday and EUR has rebounded, but the situation remains fluid.  US economic reports were mixed with a downward revision in Q1 PCE inflation, and softer ADP employment.  However, the Beige Book pointed to somewhat more wage and inflation pressure.  The Bank of Canada suggested that a hike at its next meeting in July would be consistent with their gradual normalisation in rates policy, necessary with inflation on target and the economy operating near capacity.  They see risks from trade policy and global stresses, but not enough to derail plans to hike soon.

Euro Inflation, US Economy and Canada Rates Still on Track

Italian leaders have set on a course to clash with the EU that will be hard to turn back from.  A more prolonged crisis appears likely.  Trump is pursuing his hard-line on trade; announcing plans to move ahead with tariffs on Chinese imports and restrictions on investments and trade in the high tech sector.  It wasn’t so long ago that global investor confidence was buoyed by solid synchronized global growth. And yields were rising on firming commodity prices, tightening labour markets, fiscal expansion, rate rises in the US and some other economies, and anticipation that the ECB would end QE in September and begin hikes in 2019.  Fears over populist policy trends were receding.  They are back with a vengeance. Populist policies that threaten regional and global cooperation are driving up risk aversion.

Italian leaders have set on a course to clash with the EU that will be hard to turn back from.  A more prolonged crisis appears likely.  Trump is pursuing his hard-line on trade; announcing plans to move ahead with tariffs on Chinese imports and restrictions on investments and trade in the high tech sector.  It wasn’t so long ago that global investor confidence was buoyed by solid synchronized global growth. And yields were rising on firming commodity prices, tightening labour markets, fiscal expansion, rate rises in the US and some other economies, and anticipation that the ECB would end QE in September and begin hikes in 2019.  Fears over populist policy trends were receding.  They are back with a vengeance. Populist policies that threaten regional and global cooperation are driving up risk aversion. 

Hardened Populist Politics in Italy and the USA

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Add Deutsche Bank to the List of Risks for the EUR and Global Markets

Bank analysis is not my field of expertise, but as a macro analyst of FX markets, it is hard to ignore the rapid slide in Deutsche Bank’s (DB)...

Greg Gibbs

US Dollar: Monthly Currency Summary

The Dollar Index has just finished a 5-wave rally off the late-March low, and this correction could carry as far as 92.20-92.70. Another rally...

Peter Beuttell

Italy and Germany Are Taking the Eurozone Rapidly Toward Meltdown

Italy's political convulsions are still being discussed as mainly a fight between the "responsible" Italian establishment and the crazy extremists...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Euro Inflation, US Economy and Canada Rates Still on Track

Individual country preliminary inflation data for May suggest that Eurozone headline and core measures will rebound more than expected. Without...

Greg Gibbs

Hardened Populist Politics in Italy and the USA

Italian leaders have set on a course to clash with the EU that will be hard to turn back from. A more prolonged crisis appears likely. Trump is...

Greg Gibbs

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