Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.</li>
<li>With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.</li>
<li>We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.
With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.
We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.


5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>It's easy to identify breakouts because they are the most noticeable and generate a strong response.</li><li>It is precisely what happened when DXY broke below 100.53.</li><li>On the other hand, head fakes are often met with silence as hope for sustained trends persists.</li></ul>

It's easy to identify breakouts because they are the most noticeable and generate a strong response.It is precisely what happened when DXY broke below 100.53.On the other hand, head fakes are often met with silence as hope for sustained trends persists.

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>The EUR/USD exchange rate has moved upwards with significant fluctuations over the course of March 2023.</li><li>As it can be observed in the main graph (Graph 1), there was a period of fluctuations in the exchange rate but with a steady upward trend.</li><li>The exchange rate fluctuated significantly over the course of the month reaching a high of 1.0901 on March 30th.</li></ul>

The EUR/USD exchange rate has moved upwards with significant fluctuations over the course of March 2023.As it can be observed in the main graph (Graph 1), there was a period of fluctuations in the exchange rate but with a steady upward trend.The exchange rate fluctuated significantly over the course of the month reaching a high of 1.0901 on March 30th.

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - March 31, 2023

<ul><li>The EUR/USD exchange rate has been moving downwards, as seen in Graph 1.</li><li>There were four secondary movements throughout the considered time period i.e. February 1st to March 3rd, 2023.</li><li>More specifically, after declining during the first days of the month until February 7th, the currency pair stabilized from February 8th up to February 20th.</li></ul>

The EUR/USD exchange rate has been moving downwards, as seen in Graph 1.There were four secondary movements throughout the considered time period i.e. February 1st to March 3rd, 2023.More specifically, after declining during the first days of the month until February 7th, the currency pair stabilized from February 8th up to February 20th.

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - March 3, 2023

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> is acquiring 66.67% in Skyway Concession Company LLC, the concessionaire of the Chicago Skyway for an equity value of US$2.013bn (A$3.098bn).</li>
<li>The acquisition will be funded by a fully underwritten 1:1.95 ANREO to raise A$3.098bn. The offer price of A$6.3/share is a 13.7% discount to TERP and 19.3% discount to last.</li>
<li>The increase in market cap could result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> being added to the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) is acquiring 66.67% in Skyway Concession Company LLC, the concessionaire of the Chicago Skyway for an equity value of US$2.013bn (A$3.098bn).
The acquisition will be funded by a fully underwritten 1:1.95 ANREO to raise A$3.098bn. The offer price of A$6.3/share is a 13.7% discount to TERP and 19.3% discount to last.
The increase in market cap could result in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) being added to the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index at the December rebalance.


Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): Acquisition, ANREO & ASX50 Inclusion

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward. With US CPI being...

Steno Research

Head Fakes in Euro and DXY

It's easy to identify breakouts because they are the most noticeable and generate a strong response. It is precisely what happened when DXY broke...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - March 31, 2023

By examining the RSI in Graph 4, an upward movement was observed along the trading range between 35 and 65, indicating a broadly neutral signal.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - March 3, 2023

The EUR/USD exchange rate has been moving downwards, as seen in Graph 1. There were four secondary movements throughout the considered time period...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): Acquisition, ANREO & ASX50 Inclusion

Atlas Arteria is buying the Chicago Skyway concessionaire and will raise A$3.098bn via an ANREO at A$6.3/share. If successful, this could result in...

Brian Freitas

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