Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The bond basis is a significant concern for investors, as the long end of the curve has been steepening and rates are rising, increasing the probability of shifts in the cheapest deliverable (CTD).</li><li>There are several bonds that are nearly equally cheap, meaning they are not currently the CTD but are close enough to potentially become the CTD. This could impact futures pricing.</li><li>Investors who are long the March bond futures contract can hedge against the risk of CTD duration extension by buying March bond contract puts with a strike price of 118. This can mimic a long basis position.</li></ul>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

The bond basis is a significant concern for investors, as the long end of the curve has been steepening and rates are rising, increasing the probability of shifts in the cheapest deliverable (CTD).There are several bonds that are nearly equally cheap, meaning they are not currently the CTD but are close enough to potentially become the CTD. This could impact futures pricing.Investors who are long the March bond futures contract can hedge against the risk of CTD duration extension by buying March bond contract puts with a strike price of 118. This can mimic a long basis position.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: Polar Vortex Duration Extension

<ul><li>The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the June meeting, with additional easing expected to reach a neutral level by the first half of 2025.</li><li>The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.</li><li>The sell-off in recent weeks has been driven by the repricing of monetary easing expectations, but the strategic over duration stance remains comfortable, particularly in the medium term.</li></ul>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the June meeting, with additional easing expected to reach a neutral level by the first half of 2025.The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.The sell-off in recent weeks has been driven by the repricing of monetary easing expectations, but the strategic over duration stance remains comfortable, particularly in the medium term.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: January ECB Meeting and Euro Rate Markets

<ul>
<li>The market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, but the data does not fully support this expectation.</li>
<li>The dollar has performed well this week, and further upside is plausible due to low-grade US exceptionalism and underwhelming global economic data.</li>
<li>The focus on the Fed and US rates is important, but the non-US side should not be overlooked, as there is a stark difference in initial conditions between the US and other G7 rate curves. The rate differentials could lead to a convergence with the US catching up to other rate curves, resulting in a volatile and high-impact dollar trend.</li>
</ul>
This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.


The market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, but the data does not fully support this expectation.
The dollar has performed well this week, and further upside is plausible due to low-grade US exceptionalism and underwhelming global economic data.
The focus on the Fed and US rates is important, but the non-US side should not be overlooked, as there is a stark difference in initial conditions between the US and other G7 rate curves. The rate differentials could lead to a convergence with the US catching up to other rate curves, resulting in a volatile and high-impact dollar trend.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Something’s Starting to Give

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Money fund balances have continued to grow despite Fed rate cuts due to attractive yields relative to other liquidity products</li><li>Most of the cash in money funds is liquidity money, making them a compelling place to park cash</li><li>Money funds tend to see inflows heading into an easing cycle and persist even as the yield curve begins to disinvert or steepen, with outflows only occurring once the curve stabilizes.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Money fund balances have continued to grow despite Fed rate cuts due to attractive yields relative to other liquidity productsMost of the cash in money funds is liquidity money, making them a compelling place to park cashMoney funds tend to see inflows heading into an easing cycle and persist even as the yield curve begins to disinvert or steepen, with outflows only occurring once the curve stabilizes.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: Cash on the sidelines or just cash?

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Fed is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, with additional cuts expected in November and December</li><li>There is uncertainty in the markets with regards to the size of the rate cut, with equal probabilities for a 25 or 50 basis point cut</li><li>Near term uncertainty is high, leading to bullishness on volatility in the markets</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Fed is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, with additional cuts expected in November and DecemberThere is uncertainty in the markets with regards to the size of the rate cut, with equal probabilities for a 25 or 50 basis point cutNear term uncertainty is high, leading to bullishness on volatility in the marketsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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US Rates: Polar Vortex Duration Extension

Investors who are long the March bond futures contract can hedge against the risk of CTD duration extension by buying March bond contract puts with...

At Any Rate

Global Rates: January ECB Meeting and Euro Rate Markets

The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.

At Any Rate

Global FX: Something’s Starting to Give

Overall, the article suggests that while the dollar has performed well recently, there are factors such as the lack of global dynamics and...

At Any Rate

US Rates: Cash on the sidelines or just cash?

Money fund balances are growing despite rate cuts, with AUMs at a record high of $6.6 trillion, offering compelling yields compared to deposits and...

At Any Rate

US Rates: Schrodinger’s Cut

Central banks around the world are cutting rates, with the Fed expected to follow suit with a 50 basis point cut, leading to market uncertainty and...

At Any Rate

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