FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The tepid recovery in the USD, in spite of higher US yields and improving economic outlook, raises the question – is the market becoming spooked by the worsening US fiscal outlook.  Normally the market would not question the US Treasuries capacity to borrow.  And it may be considered heretical to see the USD as other than a safe haven. However, this US fiscal expansion is especially risky, coming near the end of the business cycle, closer to a steepening demographic fiscal slope, and politics more partisan than ever.  It is hard to imagine how Congress could cope with even a minor economic or financial crisis.

The tepid recovery in the USD, in spite of higher US yields and improving economic outlook, raises the question – is the market becoming spooked by the worsening US fiscal outlook.  Normally the market would not question the US Treasuries capacity to borrow.  And it may be considered heretical to see the USD as other than a safe haven. However, this US fiscal expansion is especially risky, coming near the end of the business cycle, closer to a steepening demographic fiscal slope, and politics more partisan than ever.  It is hard to imagine how Congress could cope with even a minor economic or financial crisis.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest policy shift in three decades? US dollar weakness has always gone hand-in-hand with a surging Yen, but in the latest USD sell-off the Yen has been largely unmoved and, as the chart of a peer-weighted Yen basket (USD, Yuan, Sing$ and Won) suggests, over the past year the Yen has effectively flat-lined. This brief note summarises a series of recently…

‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest policy shift in three decades? US dollar weakness has always gone hand-in-hand with a surging Yen, but in the latest USD sell-off the Yen has been largely unmoved and, as the chart of a peer-weighted Yen basket (USD, Yuan, Sing$ and Won) suggests, over the past year the Yen has effectively flat-lined. This brief note summarises a series of recently…

Is This Asia’s Biggest Policy Shift in Three-Decades?

In our report last week, (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bond-yields-in-driver-s-seat-time-for-correction-in-equities-and-the-usd" target="_blank">Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan</a>), we anticipated rising US yields spilling over to a correction in global equities and the USD.  The recovery in the USD has been modest so far, but it may be a creeper as the market pays more attention to risks associated with late-cycle economic growth and central bank policy tightening.   Progress by the US Congress on a funding deal could be the immediate catalyst for more dollar gains.  The recent fall in AUD/NZD appears out-of-line with relative economic trends, yield spread and commodity prices.

In our report last week, (Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan), we anticipated rising US yields spilling over to a correction in global equities and the USD.  The recovery in the USD has been modest so far, but it may be a creeper as the market pays more attention to risks associated with late-cycle economic growth and central bank policy tightening.   Progress by the US Congress on a funding deal could be the immediate catalyst for more dollar gains.  The recent fall in AUD/NZD appears out-of-line with relative economic trends, yield spread and commodity prices.

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and consolidation in global equities, if not a more significant correction. The fall in the USD over the last year has appeared increasingly correlated with rising global equities, diverging significantly from its improving yield advantage.  A period of volatility in global equities may refocus attention back on yield spreads and contribute to a period of recovery in the USD.  The EUR may now be over-bought and near long-term technical resistance.  Some easing in Eurozone inflation expectations may further contribute to a corrective fall in the EUR from its highs since 2014.

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and consolidation in global equities, if not a more significant correction. The fall in the USD over the last year has appeared increasingly correlated with rising global equities, diverging significantly from its improving yield advantage.  A period of volatility in global equities may refocus attention back on yield spreads and contribute to a period of recovery in the USD.  The EUR may now be over-bought and near long-term technical resistance.  Some easing in Eurozone inflation expectations may further contribute to a corrective fall in the EUR from its highs since 2014.

Bond Yields in Driver's Seat; Time for Correction in Equities and the USD

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Dollar weakness has put currency and equity markets onto a potential collision course due to the redistributive effects of foreign exchange fluctuations on economic growth and corporate performance.Weakness in the dollar is largely attributable to the continued accommodative stance of US monetary policy, as well as a growing belief that the Trump Administration is not necessarily committed to a strong currency.History suggests no consistent relationship between the dollar and US economic expansions, although the attitudes of prior Administrations have seemingly played a significant role in the movement of the exchange rate.A full-blown currency war of competitive devaluations still looks unlikely due to the risks of significant global financial upheaval and, consequently, major political fallout.Bullish US profit expectations for 2018 are underpinned by a lower corporate tax rate and an implicit assumption that the US dollar will still be beneficial for corporate earnings.Any refusal by foreign exchange markets to trust future assurances by the Trump Administration that it supports a strong dollar will be a red flag for US bonds and equities.

Dollar weakness has put currency and equity markets onto a potential collision course due to the redistributive effects of foreign exchange fluctuations on economic growth and corporate performance.Weakness in the dollar is largely attributable to the continued accommodative stance of US monetary policy, as well as a growing belief that the Trump Administration is not necessarily committed to a strong currency.History suggests no consistent relationship between the dollar and US economic expansions, although the attitudes of prior Administrations have seemingly played a significant role in the movement of the exchange rate.A full-blown currency war of competitive devaluations still looks unlikely due to the risks of significant global financial upheaval and, consequently, major political fallout.Bullish US profit expectations for 2018 are underpinned by a lower corporate tax rate and an implicit assumption that the US dollar will still be beneficial for corporate earnings.Any refusal by foreign exchange markets to trust future assurances by the Trump Administration that it supports a strong dollar will be a red flag for US bonds and equities.

US Dollar Becomes the Looming Red Flag for Equities and Bonds

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD and US Fiscal Policy Off-The-Rails

The tepid recovery in the USD, in spite of higher US yields and improving economic outlook, raises the question – is the market becoming spooked by...

Greg Gibbs

Is This Asia’s Biggest Policy Shift in Three-Decades?

‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest...

Michael J. Howell

USD Rebound Is a Creeper

In our report last week, (Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan), we anticipated rising US yields...

Greg Gibbs

Bond Yields in Driver's Seat; Time for Correction in Equities and the USD

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and...

Greg Gibbs

US Dollar Becomes the Looming Red Flag for Equities and Bonds

Dollar weakness has put currency and equity markets onto a potential collision course due to the redistributive effects of foreign exchange...

DeSaque Macro Research

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