Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

FX & Rates

Dollar weakness has put currency and equity markets onto a potential collision course due to the redistributive effects of foreign exchange fluctuations on economic growth and corporate performance.Weakness in the dollar is largely attributable to the continued accommodative stance of US monetary policy, as well as a growing belief that the Trump Administration is not necessarily committed to a strong currency.History suggests no consistent relationship between the dollar and US economic expansions, although the attitudes of prior Administrations have seemingly played a significant role in the movement of the exchange rate.A full-blown currency war of competitive devaluations still looks unlikely due to the risks of significant global financial upheaval and, consequently, major political fallout.Bullish US profit expectations for 2018 are underpinned by a lower corporate tax rate and an implicit assumption that the US dollar will still be beneficial for corporate earnings.Any refusal by foreign exchange markets to trust future assurances by the Trump Administration that it supports a strong dollar will be a red flag for US bonds and equities.

Dollar weakness has put currency and equity markets onto a potential collision course due to the redistributive effects of foreign exchange fluctuations on economic growth and corporate performance.Weakness in the dollar is largely attributable to the continued accommodative stance of US monetary policy, as well as a growing belief that the Trump Administration is not necessarily committed to a strong currency.History suggests no consistent relationship between the dollar and US economic expansions, although the attitudes of prior Administrations have seemingly played a significant role in the movement of the exchange rate.A full-blown currency war of competitive devaluations still looks unlikely due to the risks of significant global financial upheaval and, consequently, major political fallout.Bullish US profit expectations for 2018 are underpinned by a lower corporate tax rate and an implicit assumption that the US dollar will still be beneficial for corporate earnings.Any refusal by foreign exchange markets to trust future assurances by the Trump Administration that it supports a strong dollar will be a red flag for US bonds and equities.

US Dollar Becomes the Looming Red Flag for Equities and Bonds

USD

US Dollar Becomes the Looming Red Flag for Equities and Bonds