Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<p>Our intermediate-term outlook remains constructive with major support levels holding on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE). Still, we continue to see some reason for caution as various market dynamics have deteriorated, leading us to a more neutral outlook in the near-term.</p>

Our intermediate-term outlook remains constructive with major support levels holding on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE). Still, we continue to see some reason for caution as various market dynamics have deteriorated, leading us to a more neutral outlook in the near-term.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<div>Markets are now overdone on a short term basis and once again kissing the topside of the SPX rising wedge where we are selling some risk and layering into protection.</div><div>
<br>Bull momentum call to push toward the rising resistance at the top of the wedge near 2,930 but with time translation would shift right/up toward 3,940. Bet is to lock in some long gains into this zone and put on a few shorts for a minor pullback ahead of a fresh rally into late Feb. The directional bet is to buy equities on weakness (given SPX 3,800 holds) for a bigger cycle peak due in late Feb. Late Feb peak would usher in a harder corrective cycle into late March but let's see how the late Feb timeline unfolds first.</div><div></div><div>Spaces to short are outlined with entry, stops and PT's. We like buying our bull group again on a pullback into late February.</div>

Markets are now overdone on a short term basis and once again kissing the topside of the SPX rising wedge where we are selling some risk and layering into protection.
 Bull momentum call to push toward the rising resistance at the top of the wedge near 2,930 but with time translation would shift right/up toward 3,940. Bet is to lock in some long gains into this zone and put on a few shorts for a minor pullback ahead of a fresh rally into late Feb. The directional bet is to buy equities on weakness (given SPX 3,800 holds) for a bigger cycle peak due in late Feb. Late Feb peak would usher in a harder corrective cycle into late March but let's see how the late Feb timeline unfolds first.Spaces to short are outlined with entry, stops and PT's. We like buying our bull group again on a pullback into late February.

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our text mining sees a post-election boost in general sentiment on Europe vis-à-vis Biden victory</li>
<li>COVID &amp; mobility differentials remain notably unfavorable for Europe; as expected, our sentiment indicators have deteriorated most for European retail &amp; manufacturing, while European Property remains positive</li>
<li>We recently picked up negative sentiment on the EU Recovery Fund, as multiple EU countries are signaling they are unlikely to tap the 360B EUR low-interest loan portion of the overall 750B EUR stimulus package; but the market may be perceiving this as a sign of resilience</li>
<li>Our EUR/USD lead indicator has also reverted back to neutral in the past week, as the EUR may have been spared from further weakness for the time being</li>
<li>Though we are not seeing multi-STDEV breakouts, our European indicators recognize the early innings of a positive change on the margin as the market digests the strategic and macro implications of a Biden presidency</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Our text mining sees a post-election boost in general sentiment on Europe vis-à-vis Biden victory
COVID &amp; mobility differentials remain notably unfavorable for Europe; as expected, our sentiment indicators have deteriorated most for European retail &amp; manufacturing, while European Property remains positive
We recently picked up negative sentiment on the EU Recovery Fund, as multiple EU countries are signaling they are unlikely to tap the 360B EUR low-interest loan portion of the overall 750B EUR stimulus package; but the market may be perceiving this as a sign of resilience
Our EUR/USD lead indicator has also reverted back to neutral in the past week, as the EUR may have been spared from further weakness for the time being
Though we are not seeing multi-STDEV breakouts, our European indicators recognize the early innings of a positive change on the margin as the market digests the strategic and macro implications of a Biden presidency
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Europe - Biden Era Vs. Macro Headwinds, Early Signs of Positive Change on the Margin

<p>While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: <strong>Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation</strong></p>

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>On 11 June, Unilever announced that it was looking to unify its group legal structure under a single parent company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22197:1" rel="noopener">Unilever PLC (ULVR LN)</a>, "creating a simpler company with greater strategic flexibility, that is better positioned for future success".</p><p>The Dutch shareholders approved the unification on 21 September with 99.39% of the shares voted in favour, while the UK shareholders approved the proposal on 12 October with over 99% of the shares voted in favour.</p><p>There is still one potential hurdle to the unification in the Departure Tax (GroenLinks initiative bill) being proposed by the GreenLeft Party in the Netherlands that could cost Unilever up to €11bn if it left the Netherlands.</p><p>If the unification does go through, there will be an impact of passive fund activity on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21141:1" rel="noopener">Unilever NV (UNA NA)</a>, but the bigger impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22197:1" rel="noopener">Unilever PLC (ULVR LN)</a>. We estimate the net impact of the unification will see around US$3bn of passive money flow into the stock.</p><p>In this Insight, we take a look at some of the details around the unification before jumping into the impact on the stocks and the possible spread between the two lines prior to unification.</p>

On 11 June, Unilever announced that it was looking to unify its group legal structure under a single parent company, Unilever PLC (ULVR LN), "creating a simpler company with greater strategic flexibility, that is better positioned for future success".The Dutch shareholders approved the unification on 21 September with 99.39% of the shares voted in favour, while the UK shareholders approved the proposal on 12 October with over 99% of the shares voted in favour.There is still one potential hurdle to the unification in the Departure Tax (GroenLinks initiative bill) being proposed by the GreenLeft Party in the Netherlands that could cost Unilever up to €11bn if it left the Netherlands.If the unification does go through, there will be an impact of passive fund activity on Unilever NV (UNA NA), but the bigger impact will be on Unilever PLC (ULVR LN). We estimate the net impact of the unification will see around US$3bn of passive money flow into the stock.In this Insight, we take a look at some of the details around the unification before jumping into the impact on the stocks and the possible spread between the two lines prior to unification.

The EURO STOXX 50 Index, Europe's leading blue-chip index for the Eurozone, provides a blue-chip representation of supersector leaders in the region. The index covers 50 stocks from 11 Eurozone countries. The index is licensed to financial institutions to serve as an underlying for a wide range of investment products such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), futures, options and structured products.

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR (SX5E INDEX)

Major Breakout For EURO STOXX 50

Our intermediate-term outlook remains constructive with major support levels holding on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and...

Vermilion Research

SPX Top of Wedge Sell Zone

Markets are now overdone on a short term basis and once again kissing the topside of the SPX rising wedge where we are selling some risk and...

Thomas Schroeder

TMI Snapshot: Europe - Biden Era Vs. Macro Headwinds, Early Signs of Positive Change on the Margin

Our text mining sees a post-election boost in general sentiment on Europe vis-à-vis Biden victory. Despite daunting macro headwinds, we see early...

Elan Gore

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research

Unilever Unification - Index Impact

With the Unilever unification of the PLC and NV lines approved by the Dutch and British shareholders, we take a look at the spread between the two...

Brian Freitas