Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The price action on the European Banks Index shows the rally is running out of steam</li>
<li>The combination of a weekly reversal at the trend highs as well as the loss of momentum warns of a correction down</li>
<li>Could this be related to the tensions on the Eastern front between Russia and Ukraine?</li>
</ul>


The price action on the European Banks Index shows the rally is running out of steam
The combination of a weekly reversal at the trend highs as well as the loss of momentum warns of a correction down
Could this be related to the tensions on the Eastern front between Russia and Ukraine?


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.</li>
<li>We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.</li>
</ul>


Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).
These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.
We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.


Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The BHP Board has decided to proceed with the Unification due to the advantages of simplification, strategic flexibility, elimination of DLC dividend arrangement, and elimination of share price differentials. </li>
<li>Since announcement of the Unification, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14531:1" rel="noopener">BHP Billiton Plc (ADR) (BBL US)</a> discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1" rel="noopener">BHP Billiton (ADR) (BHP US)</a> has narrowed from 16.6% to 1.4% and will reach parity soon.</li>
<li>There will be selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">BHP Billiton (BLT LN)</a> from UK Index and STOXX trackers in January, and S&amp;P/ASX trackers will buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>, possibly in 2 tranches. </li>
</ul>


The BHP Board has decided to proceed with the Unification due to the advantages of simplification, strategic flexibility, elimination of DLC dividend arrangement, and elimination of share price differentials. 
Since announcement of the Unification, the BHP Billiton Plc (ADR) (BBL US) discount to BHP Billiton (ADR) (BHP US) has narrowed from 16.6% to 1.4% and will reach parity soon.
There will be selling on BHP Billiton (BLT LN) from UK Index and STOXX trackers in January, and S&amp;P/ASX trackers will buy BHP Group (BHP AU), possibly in 2 tranches. 


BHP Unification: Board Approves; S&P Market Consultation in Progress

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

All the inflation gauges in the US are far above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Headline CPI inflation is at a 13-year high of 5.4% YoY, headline PCE inflation at a 30-year high of 4.4% YoY, and the GDP deflator was up 5.7% QoQsaar in 3Q 2021; the Fed's preferred gauge, the core PCE deflator was up 3.6% YoY in July-August 2021, while the core CPI inflation rate was 4% YoY in September. The reason for the inflation surge is something that we have been predicting since last year -- the excessively rapid increase in money supply (M2), which was up 13% YoY in September 2021, on top of the 24% YoY rise a year ago; it is increasingly clear that the Fed effectively has a M2-growth target of 11-13% YoY, which it has maintained since April 2021. (As we keep stressing, this is much faster than M2 growth in 2009-10, which peaked at 11% YoY because the money-multiplier was depressed at a time when banks were choosing to hold large excess reserves). See our June 2020 insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/labour-market-slack-remains-but-fomc-will-need-to-tighten-by-mid-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40185" rel="noopener">Labour Market Slack Remains but FOMC Will Need to Tighten by Mid-2021.</a>The ECB's rapidly-shrinking credibility took a massive further hit when the first read on October 2021 inflation showed CPI (HICP) inflation at 4.1% YoY -- after the ECB's policy council chose to keep policy unchanged, stating that its analysis after "a lot of soul-searching" about "inflation, inflation, inflation" had led it to conclude that there was no basis for the market's expectations of even a minuscule rate hike in 2022. The ECB formally targets headline (not core) inflation, and with average inflation in Jan-Oct 2021 already above that (and more than double that target in October 2021), it is ludicrous for the ECB to still be pursuing its PEPP, even at a moderately slower pace. The likely outcome will be near-term appreciation of the Euro -- and sharp unexpected tightening in the Eurozone over the next half year. We would recommend being Underweight Europe, but particularly Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Spain. Near-term Euro strength will likely give way to a strong dollar by March 2022, as the Eurozone faces a new debt crisis with the tightening of monetary conditions in the Eurozone.

All the inflation gauges in the US are far above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Headline CPI inflation is at a 13-year high of 5.4% YoY, headline PCE inflation at a 30-year high of 4.4% YoY, and the GDP deflator was up 5.7% QoQsaar in 3Q 2021; the Fed's preferred gauge, the core PCE deflator was up 3.6% YoY in July-August 2021, while the core CPI inflation rate was 4% YoY in September. The reason for the inflation surge is something that we have been predicting since last year -- the excessively rapid increase in money supply (M2), which was up 13% YoY in September 2021, on top of the 24% YoY rise a year ago; it is increasingly clear that the Fed effectively has a M2-growth target of 11-13% YoY, which it has maintained since April 2021. (As we keep stressing, this is much faster than M2 growth in 2009-10, which peaked at 11% YoY because the money-multiplier was depressed at a time when banks were choosing to hold large excess reserves). See our June 2020 insight Labour Market Slack Remains but FOMC Will Need to Tighten by Mid-2021.The ECB's rapidly-shrinking credibility took a massive further hit when the first read on October 2021 inflation showed CPI (HICP) inflation at 4.1% YoY -- after the ECB's policy council chose to keep policy unchanged, stating that its analysis after "a lot of soul-searching" about "inflation, inflation, inflation" had led it to conclude that there was no basis for the market's expectations of even a minuscule rate hike in 2022. The ECB formally targets headline (not core) inflation, and with average inflation in Jan-Oct 2021 already above that (and more than double that target in October 2021), it is ludicrous for the ECB to still be pursuing its PEPP, even at a moderately slower pace. The likely outcome will be near-term appreciation of the Euro -- and sharp unexpected tightening in the Eurozone over the next half year. We would recommend being Underweight Europe, but particularly Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Spain. Near-term Euro strength will likely give way to a strong dollar by March 2022, as the Eurozone faces a new debt crisis with the tightening of monetary conditions in the Eurozone.  

Inflation Is Entrenched, and Central Bank Credibility Is Sinking, Especially the ECB's

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Eurobanks index (SX7E) met our 103 tactical rally objective and now prone to a pullback on a give back in yield that will set up a fresh long in the banks.Upside choppy overlap warns of a tactical top in line with our call for bond yields to pullback. Daily RSI divergence (break below micro support) and MACD rolling also warns that a top is forming.Upside choppy overlap warns of a tactical top as does RSI divergence and MACD resistance.Price and trendline support coincide at the 97 area making 98 a viable fresh long zone. Our next key upside target lies at 108.

Eurobanks index (SX7E) met our 103 tactical rally objective and now prone to a pullback on a give back in yield that will set up a fresh long in the banks.Upside choppy overlap warns of a tactical top in line with our call for bond yields to pullback. Daily RSI divergence (break below micro support) and MACD rolling also warns that a top is forming.Upside choppy overlap warns of a tactical top as does RSI divergence and MACD resistance.Price and trendline support coincide at the 97 area making 98 a viable fresh long zone. Our next key upside target lies at 108.

The EURO STOXX 50 Index, Europe's leading blue-chip index for the Eurozone, provides a blue-chip representation of supersector leaders in the region. The index covers 50 stocks from 11 Eurozone countries. The index is licensed to financial institutions to serve as an underlying for a wide range of investment products such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), futures, options and structured products.

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR (SX5E INDEX)

European Banks Losing Steam

European Banks are beginning to falter according to the recent price action. Has this got anything to do with the tension building in Ukraine?

Shyam Devani

Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

We are highlighting Energy again because it is easily our favorite Sector. Additionally, defensive Sectors including Staples and Utilities display...

Vermilion Research

BHP Unification: Board Approves; S&P Market Consultation in Progress

The BHP Board has approved the Unification and the UK line could stop trading on 28 January. The UK line will see selling from UK Index and STOXX...

Brian Freitas

Inflation Is Entrenched, and Central Bank Credibility Is Sinking, Especially the ECB's

ECB retained its PEPP the day before the 4.1% inflation print. US too has overshot inflation targets, but taper guidance is clear. Near-term Euro...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Euro Banks Long Add Level

Eurobanks index (SX7E) met our 103 tactical rally objective and now prone to a pullback on a give back in yield that will set up a fresh long in...

Thomas Schroeder