Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>On December 6, 2023, Deputy Gov. Ryozo Himino and other policy board members signalled increasing optimism on price and wage increases.</li><li>Himino said at a press conference following a meeting on Wednesday that exiting the negative rate policy would have relatively little impact on Japan's economy.</li><li>"We will carefully assess the situation and consider the timing and procedure of how to exit" negative rates. </li></ul>

On December 6, 2023, Deputy Gov. Ryozo Himino and other policy board members signalled increasing optimism on price and wage increases.Himino said at a press conference following a meeting on Wednesday that exiting the negative rate policy would have relatively little impact on Japan's economy."We will carefully assess the situation and consider the timing and procedure of how to exit" negative rates. 

Part Two: JGB Yields Spike Cause Yen Mayhem

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies.</li><li>The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Instead, a grind higher in the USD from the middle of the year was fueled by positive economic data and rising long-term yields amid simmering expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle could extend further. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies.The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Instead, a grind higher in the USD from the middle of the year was fueled by positive economic data and rising long-term yields amid simmering expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle could extend further. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

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Jeroen Blokland

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index hit Frenzy for the first time during this rally.</li>
<li>We marginally lower the weight of Developed Market Equities since we are already underweight risky assets, which, unlike 2022, has not paid off this year.</li>
<li>In addition, we close our inflation-linked bond and Yen trade.</li>
</ul>


Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index hit Frenzy for the first time during this rally.
We marginally lower the weight of Developed Market Equities since we are already underweight risky assets, which, unlike 2022, has not paid off this year.
In addition, we close our inflation-linked bond and Yen trade.


Changes in Portfolio Weights: Sentiment Hits ‘Frenzy,’ We Comply

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

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SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

<ul>
<li>As we prepare for the FOMC there are patterns to watch beyond the short term</li>
<li>The risk of lower yields still persists, especially given the curve inversion</li>
<li>As a consequence we are likely to see further gains in US equities</li>
</ul>


As we prepare for the FOMC there are patterns to watch beyond the short term
The risk of lower yields still persists, especially given the curve inversion
As a consequence we are likely to see further gains in US equities


<ul>
<li>Is the inflation ship turning? Price action in markets warrants this question</li>
<li>The clearest breaks have been in US stocks which should still rally</li>
<li>Bonds may be the next to move - it is the central market to watch</li>
</ul>


Is the inflation ship turning? Price action in markets warrants this question
The clearest breaks have been in US stocks which should still rally
Bonds may be the next to move - it is the central market to watch


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EURJPY (EURJPY BGN CURNCY)

Part Two: JGB Yields Spike Cause Yen Mayhem

USDJPY fell by 3.85% and closed lower by 2.20%; the z-score fell by more than 2.25 (for 60 days). It was the most significant decline in the z...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Foreign Exchange Outlook - November 2023

We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies. The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the...

Scotiabank

Changes in Portfolio Weights: Sentiment Hits ‘Frenzy,’ We Comply

Our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index hit Frenzy for the first time during this rally, telling us to lower the weight of equities.

Jeroen Blokland

"V" For ? Thoughts on Central Banks

Market reactions to the ECB are clear, they are going the opposite way of what policy makers intended. As we prepare for the Fed, some medium term...

Shyam Devani

Cross Markets: Is the Ship Turning?

The inverted curve in the US should NEVER be ignored. Latest indications point to further gains in bonds as well as ongoing gains in equities....

Shyam Devani

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