Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: TPG's non-binding Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-trading-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13087:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: TPG's non-binding Offer for Invocare Ltd (IVC AU).
Key updates took place for Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP), and S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Invocare, Yashili, Pushpay Holdings, S.M.Entertainment

<ul>
<li>There are 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Five new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-abu-dhabi-bank-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28945:1" rel="noopener">First Abu Dhabi Bank</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc-f07a1272-e0fc-49e2-8090-1a08715a40a1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22649:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihara-science-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9870:1" rel="noopener">Ihara Science (5999 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iwasaki-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13072:1" rel="noopener">Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Five new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Newmont/Newcrest; First Abu Dhabi Bank/Standard Chartered,  Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP); Ihara Science (5999 JP), and Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP).
Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), and Halcyon Agri (HACL SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newmont/Newcrest, StanChart, Boustead Proj., Ihara, Iwasaki

<ul>
<li>For the month of January, four new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~28%, which is distorted by the take under for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a>.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of January, four new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~28%, which is distorted by the take under for Esso Thailand (ESSO TB).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand

<ul>
<li>There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma in the past week: MBK and Unison Capital MBO-style Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osstem-implant-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1450:1" rel="noopener">Osstem Implant (048260 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego (WGO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acotec-scientific-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32176:1" rel="noopener">Acotec (6669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911:1" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco  (8595 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma in the past week: MBK and Unison Capital MBO-style Tender Offer for Osstem Implant (048260 KS).
Key updates took place for: Warrego (WGO AU), Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), Acotec (6669 HK), Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP), Jafco  (8595 JP), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Osstem, Warrego, Norwest Energy, Acotec, Sabana, Jafco, Toyo

<ul>
<li>Back on the 11 January, refiner/retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)</a>'s board approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a> from Exxon Mobil.</li>
<li>The purchase price remains indeterminate (the indicative price is Bt8.84/share), based on a pricing adjustment mechanism as it relates to Esso's financial accounts at the close of the stake purchase.</li>
<li>Esso is down 17% since the announcement, and 37% from its recent (Oct-22) high. That seems excessive. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 11 January, refiner/retailer Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)'s board approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in Esso Thailand (ESSO TB) from Exxon Mobil.
The purchase price remains indeterminate (the indicative price is Bt8.84/share), based on a pricing adjustment mechanism as it relates to Esso's financial accounts at the close of the stake purchase.
Esso is down 17% since the announcement, and 37% from its recent (Oct-22) high. That seems excessive. 


Esso Thailand: Ignore Bangchak Corp’s Takeunder

Thailand

Esso Thailand PCL is a fully integrated oil business, including oil refinery and production. The Company provides liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline, aviation fuel, diesel, marine fuel, lubricants, aromatic products and other related products such as purified terephthalic acid (PTA), solvents, plasticizers, and benzene concentrate stream.

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Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Invocare, Yashili, Pushpay Holdings, S.M.Entertainment

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newmont/Newcrest, StanChart, Boustead Proj., Ihara, Iwasaki

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand

For the month of January, four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn. The average premium for the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Osstem, Warrego, Norwest Energy, Acotec, Sabana, Jafco, Toyo

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Esso Thailand: Ignore Bangchak Corp’s Takeunder

Without a quantum shift in Esso's fundamentals over the next 6-8 months, this is a takeunder. A 17% fall is excessive. Shareholders should ignore...

David Blennerhassett

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