European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As of end of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of 78.6% (OMX30, 76.4%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 4.8% discount to NAV (vs. 8.3% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 176,893 million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 360.3 (4.6% upside).</li>
</ul>


As of end of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of 78.6% (OMX30, 76.4%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 4.8% discount to NAV (vs. 8.3% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 176,893 million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 360.3 (4.6% upside).


Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount

<ul>
<li>As of end of Q1, NAV was SEK 166.8 billion (SEK 386/share). NAV increased by 11% due to a sharp decrease in leverage, while the portfolio value rose by 6%.</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 5.5% discount to NAV (vs. 8.8% average for the last 5 years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 173,116 million (SEK 400.8/share). My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 361.7.</li>
</ul>


As of end of Q1, NAV was SEK 166.8 billion (SEK 386/share). NAV increased by 11% due to a sharp decrease in leverage, while the portfolio value rose by 6%.
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 5.5% discount to NAV (vs. 8.8% average for the last 5 years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction.
My target NAV is SEK 173,116 million (SEK 400.8/share). My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 361.7.


Industrivärden Q1 2024, NAV Evolution and Discount

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a> has announced the pre-condition for Sukanto Tanoto’s HK$23.50 voluntary offer is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched on or before 11 March. </li>
<li>The offeror has received irrevocables from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essity-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28203:1" rel="noopener">Essity (ESSITYB SS)</a> and Mr Li, representing 72.62% of outstanding shares, which satisfies the 50% minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>Including irrevocables, the offeror currently represents 80.31% of outstanding shares. The offeror intends to exercise compulsory acquisition rights. The tight 0.4% gross spread reflects a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Vinda International (3331 HK) has announced the pre-condition for Sukanto Tanoto’s HK$23.50 voluntary offer is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched on or before 11 March. 
The offeror has received irrevocables from Essity (ESSITYB SS) and Mr Li, representing 72.62% of outstanding shares, which satisfies the 50% minimum acceptance condition.
Including irrevocables, the offeror currently represents 80.31% of outstanding shares. The offeror intends to exercise compulsory acquisition rights. The tight 0.4% gross spread reflects a done deal. 


Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied

<ul>
<li>FY2023 was another year of value creation: 19% increase of NAV. Discount/NAV of C shares is 4.3%, below both the "usual" 15% conglomerate discount, and 5-year average of 9%.</li>
<li>C shares are trading at a 0% discount to A shares. My target NAV is SEK 158,215 million, an 8.5% increase. My target TP, assuming 5% discount/NAV, is SEK 329.5.</li>
<li>Implementing the typical holding discount trade would be risky. However, I would put on a reversal trade, betting on a widening of the discount up to around 7.5%-8%.</li>
</ul>


FY2023 was another year of value creation: 19% increase of NAV. Discount/NAV of C shares is 4.3%, below both the "usual" 15% conglomerate discount, and 5-year average of 9%.
C shares are trading at a 0% discount to A shares. My target NAV is SEK 158,215 million, an 8.5% increase. My target TP, assuming 5% discount/NAV, is SEK 329.5.
Implementing the typical holding discount trade would be risky. However, I would put on a reversal trade, betting on a widening of the discount up to around 7.5%-8%.


Industrivärden FY 2023, NAV Evolution and Discount

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rept-battero-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36626:1" rel="noopener">REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH)</a> IPO and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>'s US$4.0 Billion Secondary Offering and US$1.4 Billion Buyback.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH) IPO and Denso Corp (6902 JP)'s US$4.0 Billion Secondary Offering and US$1.4 Billion Buyback.
Event-Driven developments - Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Vinda International (3331 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US). 


Weekly Deals Digest (17 Dec) - Benefit One, Shinko Electric, Toyo, CPMC, Vinda, Hollysys, Rept

Sweden

Essity Aktiebolag develops, produces, and sells personal care products. The Company offers products such as toilet papers, household towels, handkerchiefs, facial tissues, hand sanitizers, dispensers, wet wipes, and napkins. Essity markets its products globally.

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Essity (ESSITYB SS)

Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount

End of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden Q1 2024, NAV Evolution and Discount

Industrivärden's NAV increased by 11% in Q1 due to decreased leverage, with C shares trading at a 5.5% discount. My target NAV is SEK 173,116...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied

The composite document will be despatched on or before 11 March. Irrevocables ensure the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition. The...

Arun George

Industrivärden FY 2023, NAV Evolution and Discount

FY2023 was another year of value creation: 19% increase of NAV. Discount/NAV of C shares is 4.3%, below both the "usual" 15% conglomerate discount,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Weekly Deals Digest (17 Dec) - Benefit One, Shinko Electric, Toyo, CPMC, Vinda, Hollysys, Rept

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Benefit One, Shinko Electric, Toyo Construction, CPMC, Vinda, Hollysys, Costa, Volpara)...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount

End of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden Q1 2024, NAV Evolution and Discount

​Industrivärden's NAV increased by 11% in Q1 due to decreased leverage, with C shares trading at a 5.5% discount. My target NAV is SEK 173,116...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied

The composite document will be despatched on or before 11 March. Irrevocables ensure the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition. The...

Arun George

Industrivärden FY 2023, NAV Evolution and Discount

FY2023 was another year of value creation: 19% increase of NAV. Discount/NAV of C shares is 4.3%, below both the "usual" 15% conglomerate discount,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Weekly Deals Digest (17 Dec) - Benefit One, Shinko Electric, Toyo, CPMC, Vinda, Hollysys, Rept

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Benefit One, Shinko Electric, Toyo Construction, CPMC, Vinda, Hollysys, Costa, Volpara)...

Arun George

Industrivärden's NAV increased by 11% in Q1 due to decreased leverage, with C shares trading at a 5.5% discount. My target NAV is SEK 173,116...