Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

National Vision Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sales have fallen for four quarters. Comp store sales growth fell -8% last quarter due to customer weakness, the declining macro environment and constraints on exam capacity (optometrists).</li>
<li>Optometrists are supply constrained, which pressure margins from rising compensation. Investor-owned optometry service providers are at a disadvantage competing with professional practices that don’t share fees with investors.</li>
<li>National Vision is neither large and vertically integrated like Essilor Luxottica, nor niche focused like Warby Parker is on ecommerce. Their low-price strategy is easily replicable by competitors.</li>
</ul>


Sales have fallen for four quarters. Comp store sales growth fell -8% last quarter due to customer weakness, the declining macro environment and constraints on exam capacity (optometrists).
Optometrists are supply constrained, which pressure margins from rising compensation. Investor-owned optometry service providers are at a disadvantage competing with professional practices that don’t share fees with investors.
National Vision is neither large and vertically integrated like Essilor Luxottica, nor niche focused like Warby Parker is on ecommerce. Their low-price strategy is easily replicable by competitors.


National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Recommendation: Sell Short

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The various Shareholder and Scheme Meetings overwhelmingly supported unification of BHP Group and Limited on Thursday. The deal is done. Now for the BIG FLOWS.</li>
<li>There should be US$40bn (two way) of index-related flows on Friday across the major indices, half in funding/reverse-funding flows. Replacements are mostly decided.</li>
<li>This insight looks at the expected breakdown of flows per index, the replacements, and provides a spreadsheet for all the flows. </li>
</ul>


The various Shareholder and Scheme Meetings overwhelmingly supported unification of BHP Group and Limited on Thursday. The deal is done. Now for the BIG FLOWS.
There should be US$40bn (two way) of index-related flows on Friday across the major indices, half in funding/reverse-funding flows. Replacements are mostly decided.
This insight looks at the expected breakdown of flows per index, the replacements, and provides a spreadsheet for all the flows. 


BHP Unification A Done Deal - Now for the BIG FLOWS

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.</li>
<li>Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.</li>
<li>Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.
Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.
Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

France

EssilorLuxottica manufactures eyewear. The Company offers sun glasses, lenses, and other eye care products. EssilorLuxottica serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

EssilorLuxottica (EL FP)

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Recommendation: Sell Short

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Recommendation: Sell Short on weak sales, margin compression, and lack of sustainable differentiation.

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

BHP Unification A Done Deal - Now for the BIG FLOWS

BHP Unification is now decided. The flows are mostly known. But they are big. The more interesting flows may be on the funding trade in AU to sell...

Travis Lundy

Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

Growth continues to outperform relative to value, shown by the intact uptrend on the MSCI ACWI ex-US Growth vs. Value ratio. We highlight...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)