Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

National Vision Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sales have fallen for four quarters. Comp store sales growth fell -8% last quarter due to customer weakness, the declining macro environment and constraints on exam capacity (optometrists).</li>
<li>Optometrists are supply constrained, which pressure margins from rising compensation. Investor-owned optometry service providers are at a disadvantage competing with professional practices that don’t share fees with investors.</li>
<li>National Vision is neither large and vertically integrated like Essilor Luxottica, nor niche focused like Warby Parker is on ecommerce. Their low-price strategy is easily replicable by competitors.</li>
</ul>


Sales have fallen for four quarters. Comp store sales growth fell -8% last quarter due to customer weakness, the declining macro environment and constraints on exam capacity (optometrists).
Optometrists are supply constrained, which pressure margins from rising compensation. Investor-owned optometry service providers are at a disadvantage competing with professional practices that don’t share fees with investors.
National Vision is neither large and vertically integrated like Essilor Luxottica, nor niche focused like Warby Parker is on ecommerce. Their low-price strategy is easily replicable by competitors.


National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Recommendation: Sell Short

<ul>
<li>Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. </li>
<li>Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging: Ziff Davis, Burlington Stores, Natl Vision, Otis Wwld, Monro</li>
</ul>


Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. 
Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.
Today we are flagging: Ziff Davis, Burlington Stores, Natl Vision, Otis Wwld, Monro


Declining Business Short Candidates: Ziff Davis, Burlington Stores, Nat'l Vision, Otis Wwld, Monro

United States

National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates as a optical retailer. The Company provides eye exams, eyeglasses, and contact lenses. National Vision Holdings also offers their products through online. National Vision Holdings serves optical retail industry in the United States.

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National Vision Holdings (EYE US)

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Recommendation: Sell Short

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Recommendation: Sell Short on weak sales, margin compression, and lack of sustainable differentiation.

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Declining Business Short Candidates: Ziff Davis, Burlington Stores, Nat'l Vision, Otis Wwld, Monro

Declining business shorts earn profits by following negative business momentum. Today we are flagging: Ziff Davis, Burlington Stores, Natl Vision,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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