IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/bain-backed-chindata-said-to-field-preliminary-takeover-interest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg article</a> claimed that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a> is attracting takeover interest from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23649:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US)</a>, PAG and EdgeConneX. Shares rose 9.8% to close at $4.81.</li>
<li>Potential privatisation will require the blessing of Bain Capital, the largest shareholder. Chindata’s track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and the beaten-down rating make it a target. </li>
<li>A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.9x, in line with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>’s proposed acquisition multiple, would imply $6.85 per ADS. </li>
</ul>


A Bloomberg article claimed that Chindata Group (CD US) is attracting takeover interest from GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US), PAG and EdgeConneX. Shares rose 9.8% to close at $4.81.
Potential privatisation will require the blessing of Bain Capital, the largest shareholder. Chindata’s track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and the beaten-down rating make it a target. 
A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.9x, in line with 21Vianet Group (VNET US)’s proposed acquisition multiple, would imply $6.85 per ADS. 


Chindata the Next Chinese ADR Privatisation Target?

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

Sabana Industrial REIT / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>In December 2020, Sabana's unitholders voted down a proposed merger with ESR-REIT</li>
<li>While Sabana's unitholders were ostensibly holding out for more favourable transaction terms, this was not forthcoming and transaction ultimately fell through</li>
<li>In this Insight, we look into Sabana a year on and discuss whether its unitholders have been left to rue the failed transaction and this was but a pyrrhic victory</li>
</ul>


In December 2020, Sabana's unitholders voted down a proposed merger with ESR-REIT
While Sabana's unitholders were ostensibly holding out for more favourable transaction terms, this was not forthcoming and transaction ultimately fell through
In this Insight, we look into Sabana a year on and discuss whether its unitholders have been left to rue the failed transaction and this was but a pyrrhic victory


One Year After Failed Merger, A Pyrrhic Victory for Sabana's Unitholders?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Scheme Document for the S$1.4bn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10934:1" rel="noopener">ESR-REIT (EREIT SP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ara-logos-logistics-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:937:1" rel="noopener">ARA LOGOS (ALLT SP)</a> merger has now been <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/ALOG%20-%20Scheme%20Document.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=696721" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dispatched</a>.</li>
<li>The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 27 January with the expected date for the payment of the Cash Consideration and issuance of Consideration Units on the 28 February. </li>
<li>The IFA (ING Bank) considered the terms of the Scheme to be fair and reasonable.</li>
</ul>


The Scheme Document for the S$1.4bn ESR-REIT (EREIT SP)/ ARA LOGOS (ALLT SP) merger has now been dispatched.
The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 27 January with the expected date for the payment of the Cash Consideration and issuance of Consideration Units on the 28 February. 
The IFA (ING Bank) considered the terms of the Scheme to be fair and reasonable.


ARA Logos (ALLT SP): Scheme Doc Out. Meeting On 27 Jan

<div>
After ARA Asset Management <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180308/pdf/43s8dgxs8plthf.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acquired</a> a 19.5% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a> on the 7 March 2018, the relationship between the two became increasingly acrimonious. This was discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/x55u7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cromwell/ARA: A Festering Relationship</a>.
ARA finally <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200623/pdf/44jw1gy2d3dqg4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a proportional off-market takeover bid to acquire 29% of shares out in CMW, not already owned, which subsequently turned <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200824/pdf/44lsvxks2gjc60.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unconditional</a>, and ARA proceeded to appoint its own people to the board - appointments that had previously been blocked by Cromwell.
On the 4 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-cayman-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Cayman (1821 HK)</a> <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/202108_01%20Major%20and%20Connected%20Transaction%20in%20Relation%20to%20the%20Proposed%20Acquisition%20of%20ARA%20Asset%20Managament%20Limited.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=677405" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it was acquiring unlisted ARA Asset Management for US$5.2bn, the completion of which will result in the world's third-largest real estate management company with total assets under management of ~US$129bn. (<a href="https://skr.ma/fJECF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management</a>)
On the 14 October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10934:1" rel="noopener">ESR-REIT (EREIT SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ara-logos-logistics-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:937:1" rel="noopener">ARA LOGOS (ALLT SP)</a> (ALOG) <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/ALOG%20-%20Joint%20Announcement%20-%20Proposed%20Merger%20with%20ESR-REIT%20by%20way%20of%20a%20Trust%20Scheme%20of%20Arrangement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=686935" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposed</a> a S$1.4bn merger, where ESR-Reit will acquire all of ALOG's units in a cash &amp; scrip transaction by way of a Scheme - see <a href="https://skr.ma/wqrQU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ARA Logos (ALLT SP) To Merge with ESR-REIT (EREIT SP)</a>. ALOG is managed by ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust Management Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of LOGOS. ARA Asset Management Limited is a majority shareholder of LOGOS, which operates as ARA’s logistics real estate platform. ESR Funds Management Limited, the manager of ESR-Reit, is owned by ESR Cayman Limited (67.3%).
On Irongate
Back on the 28 January of this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360-capital-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29046:1" rel="noopener">360 Capital REIT (TOT AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02335484-2A1277317?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acquired</a> a 9.18% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate Group (IAP AU)</a> for $78.6mn, or ~A$1.40/security.  Together with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360-capital-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11865:1" rel="noopener">360 Capital (TGP AU)</a>, that stake was bumped to 15.08% on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02361516-2A1291600?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">8 April</a>, 16.26% on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02380390-2A1301075?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">28 May</a>, 17.34% on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02384090-2A1303268?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">9 June</a>, &amp; 19.11% on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02398322-2A1311372?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">20 July</a>. This was split 12.84% &amp; 6.27% between TOT &amp; TGP. 
IAP also placed out 34mn shares at A$1.47/security on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02384942-2A1303629?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16 June</a>. 
An AGM notice was issued on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02401181-2A1312628?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">30 July</a>, in which it detailed 360 Capital's nomination of Tony Pitt and James Storey to the board. The board recommended shareholders vote against these two board nominations. 360 Capital attempted to withdraw its nominations on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02413122-2A1318981?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">26 August</a>, but IAP said it was too late. At the AGM on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02415982-2A1320409?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">31 August</a>, those two appointments were voted down. 
The New News
IAP <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02436879-2A1331471?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> this morning it has it received an unsolicited, highly conditional, and indicative non-binding proposal from 360 Capital REIT and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360-capital-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11865:1" rel="noopener">360 Capital (TGP AU)</a>, the REIT's largest shareholder, by way of a Scheme.
The consideration price is A$1.6047/security, in cash, or a headline price of A$1.65 less the anticipated distribution of A$0.0453/security for the half-year ended 30 September 2021.
360 Capital currently holds 128.97mn securities or 19.99%. 
The indicative proposal is also conditional on "one or more of ESR Real Estate (Australia) Pty Ltd or its affiliate’s managed funds (together, ESR Australia) entering into an agreement with 360 Capital to purchase an undisclosed number of selected assets from IAP’s portfolio on terms yet to be agreed".
Hardly a clean approach. This is leaning towards a Hostile Offer. 
</div>
<div>
More below the fold.
</div>


After ARA Asset Management acquired a 19.5% stake in Cromwell Property (CMW AU) on the 7 March 2018, the relationship between the two became increasingly acrimonious. This was discussed in Cromwell/ARA: A Festering Relationship.
ARA finally announced a proportional off-market takeover bid to acquire 29% of shares out in CMW, not already owned, which subsequently turned unconditional, and ARA proceeded to appoint its own people to the board - appointments that had previously been blocked by Cromwell.
On the 4 August, ESR Cayman (1821 HK) announced it was acquiring unlisted ARA Asset Management for US$5.2bn, the completion of which will result in the world's third-largest real estate management company with total assets under management of ~US$129bn. (ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management)
On the 14 October, ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) and ARA LOGOS (ALLT SP) (ALOG) proposed a S$1.4bn merger, where ESR-Reit will acquire all of ALOG's units in a cash &amp; scrip transaction by way of a Scheme - see ARA Logos (ALLT SP) To Merge with ESR-REIT (EREIT SP). ALOG is managed by ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust Management Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of LOGOS. ARA Asset Management Limited is a majority shareholder of LOGOS, which operates as ARA’s logistics real estate platform. ESR Funds Management Limited, the manager of ESR-Reit, is owned by ESR Cayman Limited (67.3%).
On Irongate
Back on the 28 January of this year, 360 Capital REIT (TOT AU) acquired a 9.18% stake in Irongate Group (IAP AU) for $78.6mn, or ~A$1.40/security.  Together with 360 Capital (TGP AU), that stake was bumped to 15.08% on the 8 April, 16.26% on the 28 May, 17.34% on the 9 June, &amp; 19.11% on the 20 July. This was split 12.84% &amp; 6.27% between TOT &amp; TGP. 
IAP also placed out 34mn shares at A$1.47/security on the 16 June. 
An AGM notice was issued on the 30 July, in which it detailed 360 Capital's nomination of Tony Pitt and James Storey to the board. The board recommended shareholders vote against these two board nominations. 360 Capital attempted to withdraw its nominations on the 26 August, but IAP said it was too late. At the AGM on the 31 August, those two appointments were voted down. 
The New News
IAP announced this morning it has it received an unsolicited, highly conditional, and indicative non-binding proposal from 360 Capital REIT and 360 Capital (TGP AU), the REIT's largest shareholder, by way of a Scheme.
The consideration price is A$1.6047/security, in cash, or a headline price of A$1.65 less the anticipated distribution of A$0.0453/security for the half-year ended 30 September 2021.
360 Capital currently holds 128.97mn securities or 19.99%. 
The indicative proposal is also conditional on "one or more of ESR Real Estate (Australia) Pty Ltd or its affiliate’s managed funds (together, ESR Australia) entering into an agreement with 360 Capital to purchase an undisclosed number of selected assets from IAP’s portfolio on terms yet to be agreed".
Hardly a clean approach. This is leaning towards a Hostile Offer. 


More below the fold.


Irongate (IAP AU): 360 Capital's Tilt Reminiscent Of ARA/Cromwell Stoush

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10934:1" rel="noopener">ESR-REIT (EREIT SP)</a> announced the proposed merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ara-logos-logistics-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:937:1" rel="noopener">ARA LOGOS (ALLT SP)</a> by way of a trust scheme of arrangement. Under the scheme consideration, each ALLT unitholder will receive S$0.095 in cash and 1.6765 new EREIT units at an issue price of S$0.510. The total consideration implies a gross exchange ratio of 1.863x and a total scheme consideration of S$0.950 per ALLT unit, which is a 1.6% premium to the ALLT last close price of S$0.935 per unit (on 14 October). The merger was widely anticipated to avoid conflicts of interest arising from the proposed acquisition of ARA Asset Management by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-cayman-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Cayman (1821 HK)</a> for a total consideration of US$5.2 billion, which was announced on 5 August 2021. ESR Cayman which owns 67% of EREIT’s manager would also own 100% of ALLT’s manager on completion of the acquisition resulting in overlapping investment mandates.A key issue is on pricing particularly the EREIT issue price of S$0.510 which is based on EREIT’s 52-week high. Notably, at the last close EREIT price of S$0.465, implies a scheme consideration of S$0.875 per ALLT unit, which is a -6.5% discount to the ALLT last close price of S$0.935 per unit (on 14 October). <div class="content-highlight">As the cash consideration represents just 10% of the total scheme consideration, ALLT unitholders have greater exposure to any post-merger share price gains driven by the enlarged REIT’s higher free float, lower cost of capital, cost savings and higher growth potential. While short-term pricing concerns will linger, we note that the scheme consideration even at the last close EREIT price seems reasonable. Consequently, we believe that the merger will get the nod from both sets of unitholders.</div>

ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) announced the proposed merger with ARA LOGOS (ALLT SP) by way of a trust scheme of arrangement. Under the scheme consideration, each ALLT unitholder will receive S$0.095 in cash and 1.6765 new EREIT units at an issue price of S$0.510. The total consideration implies a gross exchange ratio of 1.863x and a total scheme consideration of S$0.950 per ALLT unit, which is a 1.6% premium to the ALLT last close price of S$0.935 per unit (on 14 October). The merger was widely anticipated to avoid conflicts of interest arising from the proposed acquisition of ARA Asset Management by ESR Cayman (1821 HK) for a total consideration of US$5.2 billion, which was announced on 5 August 2021. ESR Cayman which owns 67% of EREIT’s manager would also own 100% of ALLT’s manager on completion of the acquisition resulting in overlapping investment mandates.A key issue is on pricing particularly the EREIT issue price of S$0.510 which is based on EREIT’s 52-week high. Notably, at the last close EREIT price of S$0.465, implies a scheme consideration of S$0.875 per ALLT unit, which is a -6.5% discount to the ALLT last close price of S$0.935 per unit (on 14 October). As the cash consideration represents just 10% of the total scheme consideration, ALLT unitholders have greater exposure to any post-merger share price gains driven by the enlarged REIT’s higher free float, lower cost of capital, cost savings and higher growth potential. While short-term pricing concerns will linger, we note that the scheme consideration even at the last close EREIT price seems reasonable. Consequently, we believe that the merger will get the nod from both sets of unitholders.

ESR-REIT’s Proposed Merger with ARA LOGOS

China

ESR Group Limited operates as an integrated logistics real estate platform. The Company provides real estate private equity fund management, real estate investment trust, and other services. ESR Group conducts businesses in China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, India, New Zealand, and other countries.

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ESR Group (1821 HK)

Chindata the Next Chinese ADR Privatisation Target?

Bloomberg claimed that Chindata is attracting takeover interest from GDS, PAG and EdgeConneX. A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.9x, in line with...

Arun George

One Year After Failed Merger, A Pyrrhic Victory for Sabana's Unitholders?

In Dec 2020, Sabana's unitholders voted down a proposed merger with ESR-REIT. A year on, we look into Sabana and discuss whether its unitholders...

Jason Yap, CFA

ARA Logos (ALLT SP): Scheme Doc Out. Meeting On 27 Jan

There's a strong enough argument here for the deal to get up. It is, however, worth pointing out the recent voting for Soilbuild. Trading almost at...

David Blennerhassett

Irongate (IAP AU): 360 Capital's Tilt Reminiscent Of ARA/Cromwell Stoush

$1.65/security appears a fair price - IAP stops short of saying otherwise. But this is not a clean Offer, nor is it friendly. Despite the non...

David Blennerhassett

ESR-REIT’s Proposed Merger with ARA LOGOS

A key issue is on pricing particularly the EREIT issue price of S$0.510, based on EREIT’s 52-week high. While short-term pricing concerns will...

Arun George

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