Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

La Francaise des Jeux / Equity Capital Markets

La Française des Jeux (FDJ) is the French national lottery established in 1933 and it is the largest company in the French gaming sector and has a monopoly in draw and instant lotteries (both point of sales and online) as well as point of sale sports betting in France. Based on gross gaming revenues, FDJ is second only to Italy’s Lottomatica in Europe, and also the 4th largest player in the world.Our previous insight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fdj-french-national-lottery-ipo-odds-of-winning-are-better-than-their-lotteries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FDJ (French National Lottery) IPO: Odds of Winning Are Better than Their Lotteries</a> focused on FDJ’s strong business model, stable earnings growth and its monopolistic position in the market. This time we shift our attention to the valuation of FDJ and in this insight, we’ll be looking at return on equity, dividend yield and other relative valuation multiples for both FDJ and its peers.

La Française des Jeux (FDJ) is the French national lottery established in 1933 and it is the largest company in the French gaming sector and has a monopoly in draw and instant lotteries (both point of sales and online) as well as point of sale sports betting in France. Based on gross gaming revenues, FDJ is second only to Italy’s Lottomatica in Europe, and also the 4th largest player in the world.Our previous insight on FDJ (French National Lottery) IPO: Odds of Winning Are Better than Their Lotteries focused on FDJ’s strong business model, stable earnings growth and its monopolistic position in the market. This time we shift our attention to the valuation of FDJ and in this insight, we’ll be looking at return on equity, dividend yield and other relative valuation multiples for both FDJ and its peers.

FDJ (French National Lottery) IPO Valuation: 32% ROE & 5% Dividend Yield Merits a Higher Valuation

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

The Budget has provided long-awaited clarity on a number of gaming-related issues. The implementation of the £2 FOBT stake reduction will begin in October 2019, at the same time as a 600bp increase in remote gaming duty (RGD), from 15% to 21%. This is 1% higher than market expectations, but lower than recent rumours of 25%. We now include a £30m annual EBITDA impact in our forecasts. Also adjusting for an earlier implementation of the FOBT stake limit, we have lowered our FY19e EBITDA by 7%. Our FY20e EBITDA declines by 4%. The stock has fallen c 22% since August and trades at 9.8x EV/EBITDA and 13.0x P/E for FY19e.

The Budget has provided long-awaited clarity on a number of gaming-related issues. The implementation of the £2 FOBT stake reduction will begin in October 2019, at the same time as a 600bp increase in remote gaming duty (RGD), from 15% to 21%. This is 1% higher than market expectations, but lower than recent rumours of 25%. We now include a £30m annual EBITDA impact in our forecasts. Also adjusting for an earlier implementation of the FOBT stake limit, we have lowered our FY19e EBITDA by 7%. Our FY20e EBITDA declines by 4%. The stock has fallen c 22% since August and trades at 9.8x EV/EBITDA and 13.0x P/E for FY19e. 

GVC Holdings  - Budget not as bad as feared

United Kingdom

Entain plc is a sports betting and gambling company operating in the online and retail sector. The Company owns brands such as Bwin, Coral, Ladbrokes, PartyPoker, and Sportingbet. Entain serves customers worldwide.

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Entain (ENT LN)

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

FDJ (French National Lottery) IPO Valuation: 32% ROE & 5% Dividend Yield Merits a Higher Valuation

La Française des Jeux (FDJ) is the French national lottery established in 1933 and it is the largest company in the French gaming sector and has a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels,...

Vermilion Research

GVC Holdings - Budget not as bad as feared

The Budget has provided long-awaited clarity on a number of gaming-related issues. The implementation of the £2 FOBT stake reduction will begin in...

Edison Investment Research

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