Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.</li>
<li>Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.</li>
<li>Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.</li>
</ul>


Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.
Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.
Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The start of the second half of the year so far has seen a change in the market themes versus the first half of the year.</li><li>Microsoft’s declaration in January 2023 that AI would emerge as the next computing platform coupled with Nvidia’s shocking earnings guide up last quarter, coupled with a weaker dollar and decline in bond yields, provided fuel in the first half of the year for the technology sector and garnered investor eyeballs to anything closely associated with AI.</li><li>However, on Microsoft’s most recent earnings call on July 25th, CFO Amy Hood stated “Even with strong demand and a leadership position, growth from our AI services will be gradual as Azure AI scales and our copilots reach general availability dates. So for FY '24, the impact will be weighted towards H2.”</li></ul>

The start of the second half of the year so far has seen a change in the market themes versus the first half of the year.Microsoft’s declaration in January 2023 that AI would emerge as the next computing platform coupled with Nvidia’s shocking earnings guide up last quarter, coupled with a weaker dollar and decline in bond yields, provided fuel in the first half of the year for the technology sector and garnered investor eyeballs to anything closely associated with AI.However, on Microsoft’s most recent earnings call on July 25th, CFO Amy Hood stated “Even with strong demand and a leadership position, growth from our AI services will be gradual as Azure AI scales and our copilots reach general availability dates. So for FY '24, the impact will be weighted towards H2.”

<div>Ongoing market dynamics remain largely positive and there continues to be an absence of major breakdowns across all Sectors and the major averages. As a result, we expect higher prices ahead and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Health Care.</div>

Ongoing market dynamics remain largely positive and there continues to be an absence of major breakdowns across all Sectors and the major averages. As a result, we expect higher prices ahead and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Health Care.

S&P 500, Russell 2000 Testing Short-Term Support

Our bullish outlook, intact since early November, has been based on the fact that virtually all signals from the market have been consistent with risk-on behavior that we would expect to see in bull markets. Now, the picture is less clear; we are still bullish, just slightly less so than we have been over the past 2-3 months. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Manufacturing, and Technology.

Our bullish outlook, intact since early November, has been based on the fact that virtually all signals from the market have been consistent with risk-on behavior that we would expect to see in bull markets. Now, the picture is less clear; we are still bullish, just slightly less so than we have been over the past 2-3 months. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Manufacturing, and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Manufacturing & Transports

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

The Biden-Harris administration recently announced four "Day One" priorities, the first of which is their COVID-19 response plan. COVID-19 response is first, because it is a prerequisite to economic recovery, which is the second of their four "Day One" priorities.Several investment themes are inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan, some more direct and obvious than others. This Insight overviews more significant themes and their most representative stocks, in three sections (the first two will be expanded on in separate upcoming reports):<ol>
<li>
COVID-19 Testing: Testing is the largest, most tangible, nearest-term investment opportunity created by Biden's plan. An estimated US$75-100 billion for testing could be windfall for certain stocks, but not all. Selectivity is key, and timing is critical (related to vaccine development).</li>
<li>
Vaccine Delivery: Biden's plan emphasises vaccine manufacturing and delivery, versus vaccine development (Trump had allocated <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">billions</a> to vaccine development companies). Some might go to big pharma companies for M&amp;D, but most should benefit other "cold chain" stocks.</li>
<li>
PPE Supply/Other: PPE manufacturing, of course, but that is largely old news. I will address it, but do so along with other more interesting collateral themes. For example, retail drugs chains, elder-care, medical technologies, and a few other related industries.</li>
</ol>

The Biden-Harris administration recently announced four "Day One" priorities, the first of which is their COVID-19 response plan. COVID-19 response is first, because it is a prerequisite to economic recovery, which is the second of their four "Day One" priorities.Several investment themes are inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan, some more direct and obvious than others. This Insight overviews more significant themes and their most representative stocks, in three sections (the first two will be expanded on in separate upcoming reports):

COVID-19 Testing: Testing is the largest, most tangible, nearest-term investment opportunity created by Biden's plan. An estimated US$75-100 billion for testing could be windfall for certain stocks, but not all. Selectivity is key, and timing is critical (related to vaccine development).

Vaccine Delivery: Biden's plan emphasises vaccine manufacturing and delivery, versus vaccine development (Trump had allocated billions to vaccine development companies). Some might go to big pharma companies for M&amp;D, but most should benefit other "cold chain" stocks.

PPE Supply/Other: PPE manufacturing, of course, but that is largely old news. I will address it, but do so along with other more interesting collateral themes. For example, retail drugs chains, elder-care, medical technologies, and a few other related industries.


Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes

United States

Ensign Group, Inc. operates facilities offering nursing and rehabilitative care services in multiple states. The Company provides a broad spectrum of nursing and assisted living services, physical, occupational and speech therapies, and other rehabilitative and healthcare services, for both long-term residents and short-stay rehabilitation patients.

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Ensign Group (ENSG US)

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/14

The start of the second half of the year so far has seen a change in the market themes versus the first half of the year.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

S&P 500, Russell 2000 Testing Short-Term Support

Ongoing market dynamics remain largely positive across all Sectors and the major averages. As a result, we expect higher prices ahead and recommend...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Manufacturing & Transports

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Manufacturing, and Technology

Vermilion Research

Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes

Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan suggests a number of investment themes. This Insight overviews the more significant of those...

Kyle Rudden

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