Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Sino American Silicon Products / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-american-silicon-products-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3441:1" rel="noopener">Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT)</a>  is a Taiwan-based company mainly engaged in the research, development, design, manufacture, and distribution of semiconductor wafer products with subsidiaries in both listed and unlisted companies including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalwafers-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17916:1" rel="noopener">Globalwafers (6488 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/parade-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6987:1" rel="noopener">Parade Technologies (4966 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/actron-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4989:1" rel="noopener">Actron Technology (8255 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-wireless-semiconduc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16559:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Wireless Semiconduc (8086 TT)</a> with only in Globalwafers - SAS owns more than 51%.
The large discount between SAS and its subsidiaries could be due to 1) lack of bulge-bracket coverage, 2) higher polysilicon price 3) and 3) weak 1H demand from the solar and the semiconductor from COVID-19 plague which caused investors to care less about the value dislocation between SAS and its subsidiaries.
With a somewhat certain 28-30% gain in the earning as early Q1 2022, investors should start slowly building positions in SAS as the risk-off beast may disturb the confidence in the equity market much longer than what investors would like. The second scenario of increasing stake in Parade Tech should be treated as a call option as when it happens, it is a bonus of another 24%. Thus the total upside could be around 54%. 
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Besides the above-mentioned reasons, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-american-silicon-products-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3441:1" rel="noopener">Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT)</a> remains a smart way to gain exposure in Globalwafers which trades at 24x PER, compared to SAS that trades at 13x PER. The other factor is that Globalwafers dividend yield is 2.28% while SAS is 5.22%. 
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Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT)  is a Taiwan-based company mainly engaged in the research, development, design, manufacture, and distribution of semiconductor wafer products with subsidiaries in both listed and unlisted companies including Globalwafers (6488 TT) , Parade Technologies (4966 TT) , Actron Technology (8255 TT) and Advanced Wireless Semiconduc (8086 TT) with only in Globalwafers - SAS owns more than 51%.
The large discount between SAS and its subsidiaries could be due to 1) lack of bulge-bracket coverage, 2) higher polysilicon price 3) and 3) weak 1H demand from the solar and the semiconductor from COVID-19 plague which caused investors to care less about the value dislocation between SAS and its subsidiaries.
With a somewhat certain 28-30% gain in the earning as early Q1 2022, investors should start slowly building positions in SAS as the risk-off beast may disturb the confidence in the equity market much longer than what investors would like. The second scenario of increasing stake in Parade Tech should be treated as a call option as when it happens, it is a bonus of another 24%. Thus the total upside could be around 54%. 

Besides the above-mentioned reasons, Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT) remains a smart way to gain exposure in Globalwafers which trades at 24x PER, compared to SAS that trades at 13x PER. The other factor is that Globalwafers dividend yield is 2.28% while SAS is 5.22%. 


Sino American Silicon (5483): Entry to Globalwafers and Others

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> should have a decent operating performance in 1H21, with good growth achieved for natural gas sales, LPG sales, LNG terminal and also the exploration and production segment. Their performance all look to be ahead of the full-year guidance put forward in FY20 result announcement in Mar 2021 - this is encouraging.Gas project M&amp;A momentum stays decent and, with IRRs of 10-12%, the returns are ahead of the hurdle level of 8%. Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings' (384 HK)</a>  Shiyan gas explosion, local governments now prefer large SOEs to invest in projects given their more stringent safety standards, and this is an advantage of Kunlun. The gas industry also entails less regulatory risks amid government's heightened regulatory measures towards various industries lately. The recent pull-back has made valuations even more appealing, in our view.

Kunlun Energy (135 HK) should have a decent operating performance in 1H21, with good growth achieved for natural gas sales, LPG sales, LNG terminal and also the exploration and production segment. Their performance all look to be ahead of the full-year guidance put forward in FY20 result announcement in Mar 2021 - this is encouraging.Gas project M&amp;A momentum stays decent and, with IRRs of 10-12%, the returns are ahead of the hurdle level of 8%. Following China Gas Holdings' (384 HK)  Shiyan gas explosion, local governments now prefer large SOEs to invest in projects given their more stringent safety standards, and this is an advantage of Kunlun. The gas industry also entails less regulatory risks amid government's heightened regulatory measures towards various industries lately. The recent pull-back has made valuations even more appealing, in our view.  

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Positive Takeaways from Discussion with Company

Despite the good share price performance after going ex-dividends, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> still has significant upside potential, in our view. YTD, industry and peer figures have already showed a very solid underlying picture of China's gas consumption market. We updated our financial projections to incorporate the good 1Q21 result of Kunlun Gas, particularly to reflect the lower-than-expected minority interests which means that its wholly-owned subsidiaries are more profitable than non-wholly-owned which is a fact likely to be missed by the market.We project 3-year EPS CAGR of 20% for Kunlun's continuing operations, with ROE of 10.9% for FY22; and the stock trades on just 10.9x PER for FY21F and 0.9x P/B for FY22F. Such growth, return and valuation metrics clearly put the stock in an attractive zone relative to the peers' multiples - average sector growth is 15.9% at PER of 15.6x and average ROE of 17.7% at 2.2x P/B. More importantly, we see its net cash over the next two years to amount to 26-37% of the current share price.

Despite the good share price performance after going ex-dividends, Kunlun Energy (135 HK) still has significant upside potential, in our view. YTD, industry and peer figures have already showed a very solid underlying picture of China's gas consumption market. We updated our financial projections to incorporate the good 1Q21 result of Kunlun Gas, particularly to reflect the lower-than-expected minority interests which means that its wholly-owned subsidiaries are more profitable than non-wholly-owned which is a fact likely to be missed by the market.We project 3-year EPS CAGR of 20% for Kunlun's continuing operations, with ROE of 10.9% for FY22; and the stock trades on just 10.9x PER for FY21F and 0.9x P/B for FY22F. Such growth, return and valuation metrics clearly put the stock in an attractive zone relative to the peers' multiples - average sector growth is 15.9% at PER of 15.6x and average ROE of 17.7% at 2.2x P/B. More importantly, we see its net cash over the next two years to amount to 26-37% of the current share price.

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Updated Financial Projections Point to Still Very Undemanding Valuations

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

This is a warning insight. It is not actionable per se. It is designed to be informative. The dividend payment ex-dates are confusing. Some people are confusing. This insight hopes to put that right in the safest way possible so investors do not make an error on what will be a one-time 30% dividend.

This is a warning insight. It is not actionable per se. It is designed to be informative. The dividend payment ex-dates are confusing. Some people are confusing. This insight hopes to put that right in the safest way possible so investors do not make an error on what will be a one-time 30% dividend. 

Kunlun Energy (135) - Be Careful Of The Special Div Dates

Last year, the major gas pipeline companies owned by the SOEs all announced they were selling their intercity infrastructure and port offloading and storage operations to a new SOE called PipeChina. A few SOEs signed Sale and Purchase agreements in mid-2020. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> signed theirs in December. For Kunlun, that agreement went through at the end of March. The bulk of the payment should have gone through at the end of April, and When Kunlun reported its earnings in late March, it reported full-year on an ongoing basis with the Discontinued Assets representing a different set of numbers. At that point, Kunlun became an energy distribution company which was primarily a city gas company, and a big pile of cash. As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/osbert-tang-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3879" rel="noopener">Osbert Tang, CFA</a> discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kunlun-energy-135-hk-a-fantastic-1q21-at-kunlun-gas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50930" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas</a> the largest contributor to the remaining business had a "fantastic Q1". Year-on-year results this year were always going to be "good" simply because of the growth from start of year to end of year in 2020. Straightline serial no-growth in 2021 would still have resulted in year-on-year growth, which itself seemed not to be in the minds of analysts looking at the pro-forma post-sale Kunlun. Surprisingly, since the announcement in December that the trade had been done, while Kunlun is up, because others are up just as much, the relative cheapness of Kunlun vs peers has actually increased.Below are data/visualizations suggesting how to look at Kunlun today.

Last year, the major gas pipeline companies owned by the SOEs all announced they were selling their intercity infrastructure and port offloading and storage operations to a new SOE called PipeChina. A few SOEs signed Sale and Purchase agreements in mid-2020. Kunlun Energy (135 HK) signed theirs in December. For Kunlun, that agreement went through at the end of March. The bulk of the payment should have gone through at the end of April, and When Kunlun reported its earnings in late March, it reported full-year on an ongoing basis with the Discontinued Assets representing a different set of numbers. At that point, Kunlun became an energy distribution company which was primarily a city gas company, and a big pile of cash. As Osbert Tang, CFA discussed in Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas the largest contributor to the remaining business had a "fantastic Q1". Year-on-year results this year were always going to be "good" simply because of the growth from start of year to end of year in 2020. Straightline serial no-growth in 2021 would still have resulted in year-on-year growth, which itself seemed not to be in the minds of analysts looking at the pro-forma post-sale Kunlun. Surprisingly, since the announcement in December that the trade had been done, while Kunlun is up, because others are up just as much, the relative cheapness of Kunlun vs peers has actually increased.Below are data/visualizations suggesting how to look at Kunlun today. 

Kunlun Energy (135 HK) Approaching The Special Div - Still The Wrong Price

China

ENN Energy Holdings Ltd. distributes natural gas in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests in, operates, and manages gas pipelines, and sells and distributes piped and bottled gas in China.

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ENN Energy (2688 HK)

Sino American Silicon (5483): Entry to Globalwafers and Others

Sino American Silicon remains a smart way to gain exposure in Globalwafers (24x PER), compared to SAS (13x PER). The other factor is that...

Henry Soediarko

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Positive Takeaways from Discussion with Company

Kunlun Energy should have a decent 1H21 driven by good natural gas sales, LPG sales, LNG terminal and recovery of the exploration and production...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Updated Financial Projections Point to Still Very Undemanding Valuations

Our updated financial projections, referencing its valuation relative to peers, point to the fact that there is still very significant upside...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Kunlun Energy (135) - Be Careful Of The Special Div Dates

Kunlun's Special Div is upon us. BE CAREFUL OF YOUR DATES. There appears to be some confusion out there. Check and double check the docs and your...

Travis Lundy

Kunlun Energy (135 HK) Approaching The Special Div - Still The Wrong Price

Kunlun has outperformed its peers since the announcement of the disposal of its pipeline business. There is one week til the ex-date of the special...

Travis Lundy

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