Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Kunlun Energy (135) - Be Careful Of The Special Div Dates

Kunlun Energy (135 HK) - Choose Your Fighter (With That One Neat Trick!)

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): It's Different Than You Think

Kunlun Energy (135 HK) - Results & Big Divs Get You Closer to Shangri-La

Will Investors Find Shangri-La in Kunlun?

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last year, the major gas pipeline companies owned by the SOEs all announced they were selling their intercity infrastructure and port offloading and storage operations to a new SOE called PipeChina. A few SOEs signed Sale and Purchase agreements in mid-2020. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> signed theirs in December. For Kunlun, that agreement went through at the end of March. The bulk of the payment should have gone through at the end of April, and When Kunlun reported its earnings in late March, it reported full-year on an ongoing basis with the Discontinued Assets representing a different set of numbers. At that point, Kunlun became an energy distribution company which was primarily a city gas company, and a big pile of cash. As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/osbert-tang-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3879" rel="noopener">Osbert Tang, CFA</a> discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kunlun-energy-135-hk-a-fantastic-1q21-at-kunlun-gas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50930" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas</a> the largest contributor to the remaining business had a "fantastic Q1". Year-on-year results this year were always going to be "good" simply because of the growth from start of year to end of year in 2020. Straightline serial no-growth in 2021 would still have resulted in year-on-year growth, which itself seemed not to be in the minds of analysts looking at the pro-forma post-sale Kunlun. Surprisingly, since the announcement in December that the trade had been done, while Kunlun is up, because others are up just as much, the relative cheapness of Kunlun vs peers has actually increased.Below are data/visualizations suggesting how to look at Kunlun today.

Last year, the major gas pipeline companies owned by the SOEs all announced they were selling their intercity infrastructure and port offloading and storage operations to a new SOE called PipeChina. A few SOEs signed Sale and Purchase agreements in mid-2020. Kunlun Energy (135 HK) signed theirs in December. For Kunlun, that agreement went through at the end of March. The bulk of the payment should have gone through at the end of April, and When Kunlun reported its earnings in late March, it reported full-year on an ongoing basis with the Discontinued Assets representing a different set of numbers. At that point, Kunlun became an energy distribution company which was primarily a city gas company, and a big pile of cash. As Osbert Tang, CFA discussed in Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas the largest contributor to the remaining business had a "fantastic Q1". Year-on-year results this year were always going to be "good" simply because of the growth from start of year to end of year in 2020. Straightline serial no-growth in 2021 would still have resulted in year-on-year growth, which itself seemed not to be in the minds of analysts looking at the pro-forma post-sale Kunlun. Surprisingly, since the announcement in December that the trade had been done, while Kunlun is up, because others are up just as much, the relative cheapness of Kunlun vs peers has actually increased.Below are data/visualizations suggesting how to look at Kunlun today. 

Kunlun Energy (135 HK) Approaching The Special Div - Still The Wrong Price