Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C : target price of A$0.08 per share: Transaction with MND receives Austrian Ministerial acceptance – ADX has received clearance from the ministry of finance in Austria for the partnership documentation between ADX, MND and Xstate Resources.</li>
<li>This was a key condition precedent to completing the transaction.</li>
<li>The transaction will provide funding for the drilling of key wells at Anshof that are expected to add reserves and production. </li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C : target price of A$0.08 per share: Transaction with MND receives Austrian Ministerial acceptance – ADX has received clearance from the ministry of finance in Austria for the partnership documentation between ADX, MND and Xstate Resources.
This was a key condition precedent to completing the transaction.
The transaction will provide funding for the drilling of key wells at Anshof that are expected to add reserves and production. 


<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Growing production.</li>
<li>Anshof-3 production performance continues to exceed expectations with strong pressure support and deliverability with no water production.</li>
<li>Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C; target price of A$0.50 per share: Increasing dividend distribution to ~10% yield - 2Q23 production was 4,152 boe/d, above the estimates provided previously (4,125 boe/d).</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Growing production.
Anshof-3 production performance continues to exceed expectations with strong pressure support and deliverability with no water production.
Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C; target price of A$0.50 per share: Increasing dividend distribution to ~10% yield - 2Q23 production was 4,152 boe/d, above the estimates provided previously (4,125 boe/d).


<ul>
<li>Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: CN-2 flows at up to 1 mbbl/d.</li>
<li>Focusing on developping the Ubaque at Carrizales Norte - The Carrizales Norte-2 well (CN-2) encountered 60’ of net pay in the Ubaque formation.</li>
<li>Eni (ENI IM): 2Q23 results – 2Q23 adjusted net earnings were Eur1.9 bn with 1,611 mboe/d production.</li>
</ul>


Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: CN-2 flows at up to 1 mbbl/d.
Focusing on developping the Ubaque at Carrizales Norte - The Carrizales Norte-2 well (CN-2) encountered 60’ of net pay in the Ubaque formation.
Eni (ENI IM): 2Q23 results – 2Q23 adjusted net earnings were Eur1.9 bn with 1,611 mboe/d production.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: CN-1 well in production at 1 mbbl/d from the C7 sands – The C7 formation (~26 feet of net oil pay) in the Carrizales Norte-1 well (CN-1) is now in production at a rate of 1.1 mbbl/d (550 bbl/d net to Arrow).</li>
<li>During the flow test, the sands flowed at a peak rate of 1,272 bbl/d.</li>
<li>The flow rate achieved at the C7 sands is addition to the rate from the deeper Ubaque formation (1,600 bbl/d gross, 800 bbl/d net).</li>
</ul>


Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: CN-1 well in production at 1 mbbl/d from the C7 sands – The C7 formation (~26 feet of net oil pay) in the Carrizales Norte-1 well (CN-1) is now in production at a rate of 1.1 mbbl/d (550 bbl/d net to Arrow).
During the flow test, the sands flowed at a peak rate of 1,272 bbl/d.
The flow rate achieved at the C7 sands is addition to the rate from the deeper Ubaque formation (1,600 bbl/d gross, 800 bbl/d net).


Italy

Eni SpA explores for and produces hydrocarbons in Italy, Africa, the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, Kazakhstan, and Australia. The Company both produces natural gas and imports it for sale in Italy and elsewhere in Europe. Eni transports natural gas in pipelines. The Company generates and trades electricity, refines oil, and operates gasoline service stations.

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Eni SpA (ENI IM)

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Auctus on Friday - 08/09/2023

DX has received clearance from the ministry of finance in Austria for the partnership documentation between ADX, MND and Xstate Resources.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 04/08/2023

Anshof-3 production performance continues to exceed expectations with strong pressure support and deliverability with no water production.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 28/07/2023

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: CN-2 flows at up to 1 mbbl/d. Focusing on developping the Ubaque at Carrizales Norte

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 23/06/2023

The flow rate achieved at the C7 sands is addition to the rate from the deeper Ubaque formation (1,600 bbl/d gross, 800 bbl/d net).

Auctus Advisors

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