Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Endeavour Group /Australia / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woolworths-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:500:1" rel="noopener">Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)</a> plans to raise around US$438m via selling 5.5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endeavour-group-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33512:1" rel="noopener">Endeavour Group (EDV AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Endeavour Group was demerged from Woolworths in Jun 2021 and it runs the drinks and hospitality business of Woolworths.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) plans to raise around US$438m via selling 5.5% of Endeavour Group (EDV AU).
Endeavour Group was demerged from Woolworths in Jun 2021 and it runs the drinks and hospitality business of Woolworths.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Endeavour Group Placement - Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 2nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD17.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in IGO, Pilbara Mineral, Seek, Carsales.com, Allkem, Woodside Energy, Domino's Pizza, Westfarmers, Evolution Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 2nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD17.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in IGO, Pilbara Mineral, Seek, Carsales.com, Allkem, Woodside Energy, Domino's Pizza, Westfarmers, Evolution Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 2nd): IGO, Pilbara Mineral, Seek, Carsales.com, Allkem

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.</li>
<li>As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.</li>
<li>Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure</li>
</ul>


Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.
As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.
Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure


Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Back on the <a href="https://www.woolworthsgroup.com.au/content/Document/2019-11-01%20Restructure%20Booklet.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">3 July 2019</a>, supermarket and grocery chain giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woolworths-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:500:1" rel="noopener">Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)</a> announced plans to spin off its retail drinks and hospitality business via <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endeavour-group-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33512:1" rel="noopener">Endeavour Group (EDV AU)</a>.
The demerger was expected to simplify the organisational structure, unlock long-term shareholder value for the company, and provide Endeavour greater access to capital. Shareholders agreed and approved the demerger at the EGM on the <a href="https://www.woolworthsgroup.com.au/content/Document/2019%20AGM%20%26%20EGM%20results.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16 December 2019</a>.
The internal structure was completed on the <a href="https://www.woolworthsgroup.com.au/content/Document/Completion%20of%20Internal%20Restructure%20and%20ALH%20Merger.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">4 February 2020</a>, such that Woolies held 85.4% in Endeavour. The Bruce Mathieson Group held the remaining 14.6%. 
The timing of the demerger was subsequently <a href="https://www.woolworthsgroup.com.au/content/Document/Woolworths%20Group%20update%20on%20impact%20of%20coronavirus%20(COVID-19).pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delayed</a> on account of Covid-19. 
A new meeting was held on the 18 June to re-consider the demerger, which was also <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02385935-2A1304198?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">duly passed</a>. 
Via an in-specie distribution to existing shareholders, Woolies' shareholders received one Endeavour share for every Woolies' share, in addition to maintaining their one share in Woolies. 
Woolies commenced trading on the ASX, ex-entitlement, on the 24 June, the same day Endeavour commenced trading. 
Woolies is now a cleaner supermarket play, whereas Endeavour may find itself on the wrong side of ESG investors. 
More below the fold.

Back on the 3 July 2019, supermarket and grocery chain giant Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) announced plans to spin off its retail drinks and hospitality business via Endeavour Group (EDV AU).
The demerger was expected to simplify the organisational structure, unlock long-term shareholder value for the company, and provide Endeavour greater access to capital. Shareholders agreed and approved the demerger at the EGM on the 16 December 2019.
The internal structure was completed on the 4 February 2020, such that Woolies held 85.4% in Endeavour. The Bruce Mathieson Group held the remaining 14.6%. 
The timing of the demerger was subsequently delayed on account of Covid-19. 
A new meeting was held on the 18 June to re-consider the demerger, which was also duly passed. 
Via an in-specie distribution to existing shareholders, Woolies' shareholders received one Endeavour share for every Woolies' share, in addition to maintaining their one share in Woolies. 
Woolies commenced trading on the ASX, ex-entitlement, on the 24 June, the same day Endeavour commenced trading. 
Woolies is now a cleaner supermarket play, whereas Endeavour may find itself on the wrong side of ESG investors. 
More below the fold.

Woolworths/Endeavour: Taking A Bet On Alcohol & Gaming

Australia

Endeavour Group Limited of Australia retail drinks and hospitality business. The Company offers distilled spirits, including neutral spirits and ethyl alcohol used in blended wines and distilled liquors. Endeavour Group serves customers in Australia.

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Endeavour Group /Australia (EDV AU)

Endeavour Group Placement - Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak

Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) plans to raise around US$438m via selling 5.5% of Endeavour Group (EDV AU). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics...

Sumeet Singh

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 2nd): IGO, Pilbara Mineral, Seek, Carsales.com, Allkem

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in IGO, Pilbara Mineral, Seek, Carsales.com, Allkem,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Bullish reversals begun last week in $ACWI, $SPX, and $STOXX Europe 50, with each reversing topside their 4-month downtrends. Now, bullish...

Vermilion Research

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

Woolworths/Endeavour: Taking A Bet On Alcohol & Gaming

I side with ESG-focused super investors' concerns on Endeavour, given its exposure to gaming & alcohol. Woolies is now a pure-play on grocery and...

David Blennerhassett

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