Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up, Wickhams Hill

Lloyd Moffatt

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>mm2 Asia Ltd (MM2 SP), which we flagged in our inaugural issue last week, received<br>an unsolicited bid for their Singapore and Malaysian cinema business. The offer made would imply a share price of about SGD 16.2cents, +140% from today’s close.</li>
<li>We uncover a massive buyback program underway at Alliance Global Group (AGI<br>PM), Emperador (EMP PM) and Megaworld (MEG PM).</li>
<li>The US$1.5bn IPO of Indonesian online flea market Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) is planned for next week. While another Asia focused SPAC files for US listing.</li>
</ul>


mm2 Asia Ltd (MM2 SP), which we flagged in our inaugural issue last week, received an unsolicited bid for their Singapore and Malaysian cinema business. The offer made would imply a share price of about SGD 16.2cents, +140% from today’s close.
We uncover a massive buyback program underway at Alliance Global Group (AGI PM), Emperador (EMP PM) and Megaworld (MEG PM).
The US$1.5bn IPO of Indonesian online flea market Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) is planned for next week. While another Asia focused SPAC files for US listing.


Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 2

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Del Monte Philippines / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/del-monte-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26988:1" rel="noopener">Del Monte Philippines (1575316D PM)</a>/DMPI is a leading producer, distributor and marketer of premium quality, healthy food and beverage products. It is a market leader in the packaged pineapple and mixed fruit, ready-to-drink juices (excluding stand-up-pouches), tomato sauce and spaghetti sauce categories in the Philippines. DMPI has the rights to the <em>Del Monte</em> trademark for the Philippines for processed products and also sells products under the brands of <em>S&amp;W, Contadina</em> and <em>Today’s</em>.</p>
<p>The parent company is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/del-monte-pacific-ltd-5951cd46-129c-41bb-8eb2-58654da08425" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22651:1" rel="noopener">Del Monte Pacific (DELM PM)</a> which holds 87.0% of outstanding shares. Del Monte Pacific had previously tried to list DMPI on the PSE in 2018 by selling a 20% stake to raise up to $324 million at the maximum offer price of PHP29.88 per share but deferred the IPO due to market volatility.</p>
</div><div><p>Currently, DMPI is pre-marketing for an IPO to raise up to PHP44 billion ($0.9 billion) at the maximum offer price of PHP54.80. The IPO price range, which is generally lower than the maximum IPO price, will be set during the book building process. The pricing date is 12 August and the offer period runs from 16 to 20 August. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/del-monte-philippines-ipo-initiation-tempting-fruit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54769" rel="noopener">Del Monte Philippines IPO Initiation: Tempting Fruit</a>, we opined that DMPI is a play on the healthy packaged and convenient packaged food and beverage categories that benefit from long-term secular tailwinds in the Philippines. DMPI’s financial track record shows it has been able to leverage its market-leading position to combine solid top-line growth with improving margins and cash generation. We concluded that DMPI’s fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at DMPI's potential valuation. </p></div></div></div>


Del Monte Philippines (1575316D PM)/DMPI is a leading producer, distributor and marketer of premium quality, healthy food and beverage products. It is a market leader in the packaged pineapple and mixed fruit, ready-to-drink juices (excluding stand-up-pouches), tomato sauce and spaghetti sauce categories in the Philippines. DMPI has the rights to the Del Monte trademark for the Philippines for processed products and also sells products under the brands of S&amp;W, Contadina and Today’s.
The parent company is Del Monte Pacific (DELM PM) which holds 87.0% of outstanding shares. Del Monte Pacific had previously tried to list DMPI on the PSE in 2018 by selling a 20% stake to raise up to $324 million at the maximum offer price of PHP29.88 per share but deferred the IPO due to market volatility.
Currently, DMPI is pre-marketing for an IPO to raise up to PHP44 billion ($0.9 billion) at the maximum offer price of PHP54.80. The IPO price range, which is generally lower than the maximum IPO price, will be set during the book building process. The pricing date is 12 August and the offer period runs from 16 to 20 August. In Del Monte Philippines IPO Initiation: Tempting Fruit, we opined that DMPI is a play on the healthy packaged and convenient packaged food and beverage categories that benefit from long-term secular tailwinds in the Philippines. DMPI’s financial track record shows it has been able to leverage its market-leading position to combine solid top-line growth with improving margins and cash generation. We concluded that DMPI’s fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at DMPI's potential valuation. 

Del Monte Philippines IPO: Valuation First-Look

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> is the main index of the Philippines Stock Exchange (PSE). The index is free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 30 largest and most active common stocks listed at the PSE.</p><p>The next rebalance will become effective in mid-August and the changes will be announced around 5 trading days prior to implementation.</p><p>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ac-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23188:1" rel="noopener">AC Energy Corp (ACEN PM)</a> as a likely inclusion in the index. Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3485:1" rel="noopener">Emperador Inc (EMP PM)</a> on liquidity and possibly free float and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmci-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8026:1" rel="noopener">DMCI Holdings (DMC PM)</a> as the lowest ranked index constituent.</p><p>There are minimal assets tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a>. However, there are active funds using the index as a benchmark and some of the funds track the benchmark pretty closely. Historically, the adds have performed well in the period leading up to implementation.</p>

The Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) is the main index of the Philippines Stock Exchange (PSE). The index is free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 30 largest and most active common stocks listed at the PSE.The next rebalance will become effective in mid-August and the changes will be announced around 5 trading days prior to implementation.We see AC Energy Corp (ACEN PM) as a likely inclusion in the index. Potential deletions are Emperador Inc (EMP PM) on liquidity and possibly free float and DMCI Holdings (DMC PM) as the lowest ranked index constituent.There are minimal assets tracking the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX). However, there are active funds using the index as a benchmark and some of the funds track the benchmark pretty closely. Historically, the adds have performed well in the period leading up to implementation.

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Fairly Certain; Deletion Undecided

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> announced that it received a no-objection letter for the proposed spinoff of BeerCo from SGX-ST on 5th February, 2021.</p></div><div>
<p>BeerCo's business include brands like Chang, Archa, and Federbräu in Thailand. It also includes the majority (53.59%) interest in Saigon Beer-Alcohol-Beverage Corporation (SABECO), listed in Vietnam, which include brands like Bia Saigon and 333 in Vietnam.</p>
<p>In this note, we will look at the valuation of BeerCo and ThaiBev Holdco.</p>
</div><div><p>We have previously covered the potential spinoff over a year ago:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-beer-brewery-pre-ipo-spin-off-early-take-aiming-to-build-an-asean-champion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36583" rel="noopener">ThaiBev Beer Brewery Pre-IPO/Spin-Off - Early Take - Aiming to Build an ASEAN Champion?</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-beer-brewery-pre-ipo-spin-off-valuation-estimates-and-implications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36633" rel="noopener">ThaiBev Beer Brewery Pre-IPO/Spin-Off - Valuation Estimates and Implications</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-beerco-pre-ipo-declining-rev-and-mkt-share-concerns-but-good-cost-control" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48193" rel="noopener">ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO - Declining Rev and Mkt Share Concerns but Good Cost Control</a> </li>
</ul></div>

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) announced that it received a no-objection letter for the proposed spinoff of BeerCo from SGX-ST on 5th February, 2021.
BeerCo's business include brands like Chang, Archa, and Federbräu in Thailand. It also includes the majority (53.59%) interest in Saigon Beer-Alcohol-Beverage Corporation (SABECO), listed in Vietnam, which include brands like Bia Saigon and 333 in Vietnam.
In this note, we will look at the valuation of BeerCo and ThaiBev Holdco.
We have previously covered the potential spinoff over a year ago:

ThaiBev Beer Brewery Pre-IPO/Spin-Off - Early Take - Aiming to Build an ASEAN Champion? 

ThaiBev Beer Brewery Pre-IPO/Spin-Off - Valuation Estimates and Implications 

ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO - Declining Rev and Mkt Share Concerns but Good Cost Control 


ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO - Thoughts on BeerCo and ThaiBev HoldCo Valuation

Quality-Value Investing

Marc Melendez, CFA

Emerging Market Small and Mid Cap Equities

Reperio Capital

Reperio Capital Research was founded in 2013 with the goal of better serving the investment community with in-depth, high quality, value oriented research.

Reperio means to discover in latin. Using value investing principles, we aim to discover a minimum of 12 investment opportunities per year within the Emerging Markets Small and Mid Cap universe.

We take a business owners perspective with a long term investment horizon. We conduct bottom up, fundamental research. We focus on downside risks and require a significant margin of safety in any investment to prevent the permanent loss of capital. All factors differentiating our research from the short term, trading focus of traditional research providers.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a> is the world’s best-selling gin brand. It owns 97% of the Filipino gin market. It has a 185-year relationship with Filipinos and is synonymous with gin in the country. Its products are priced at 1/6<sup>th</sup> the price of large international competitors making its only competition other value for money spirits within the Philippines.</p><p>Over the last five years, it started to regain share from other liquor products growing its top line at a CAGR of 14%. The gin market is expected to grow at 8% over the next few years. Over the last five years, it drastically improved its gross margin, operational efficiency, and capital efficiency leading to operating profit increasing at an average annual rate of 39% and pre-tax ROIC increasing from 4.7% in 2014 to 32.7% in 2019.</p><p>There are some corporate governance concerns but those are more than priced in with GSMI trading below 3 times TTM EBITDA. Its closest competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3485:1" rel="noopener">Emperador Inc (EMP PM)</a> is growing slower and generates a lower ROIC, but trades at 17 times 2019 EBITDA. Under the base case, there is 271% upside to the 2025 fair value per share of PHP194.22. Ginebra San Miguel looks attractive at current prices.</p>

Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) is the world’s best-selling gin brand. It owns 97% of the Filipino gin market. It has a 185-year relationship with Filipinos and is synonymous with gin in the country. Its products are priced at 1/6th the price of large international competitors making its only competition other value for money spirits within the Philippines.Over the last five years, it started to regain share from other liquor products growing its top line at a CAGR of 14%. The gin market is expected to grow at 8% over the next few years. Over the last five years, it drastically improved its gross margin, operational efficiency, and capital efficiency leading to operating profit increasing at an average annual rate of 39% and pre-tax ROIC increasing from 4.7% in 2014 to 32.7% in 2019.There are some corporate governance concerns but those are more than priced in with GSMI trading below 3 times TTM EBITDA. Its closest competitor Emperador Inc (EMP PM) is growing slower and generates a lower ROIC, but trades at 17 times 2019 EBITDA. Under the base case, there is 271% upside to the 2025 fair value per share of PHP194.22. Ginebra San Miguel looks attractive at current prices.

Ginebra San Miguel- The World’s Best Selling Gin Brand On Sale for Under 3 Times TTM EBITDA

Philippines

Emperador, Inc. operates in the beverage industry. The Company, through  its subsidiary, produces and markets brandy.

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Emperador (EMP PM)

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 2

mm2 Asia Ltd (MM2 SP), which we flagged in our inaugural issue last week, receivedan unsolicited bid for their Singapore and Malaysian cinema business

Lloyd Moffatt

Del Monte Philippines IPO: Valuation First-Look

DMPI is pre-marketing for an IPO to raise up to $0.9 billion at the maximum offer price of PHP54.80. In this note, we present our forecasts and...

Arun George

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Fairly Certain; Deletion Undecided

We see ACEN being included and EMP being deleted from the PCOMP at the August rebalance. Inclusions have historically performed well while the...

Brian Freitas

ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO - Thoughts on BeerCo and ThaiBev HoldCo Valuation

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) announced that it received a no-objection letter for the proposed spinoff of BeerCo. In this note, we will look at the...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Ginebra San Miguel- The World’s Best Selling Gin Brand On Sale for Under 3 Times TTM EBITDA

Ginebra San Miguel is the maker of the world’s best-selling gin brand. It has a net cash position, its sales are growing, and its operating margin...

Reperio Capital

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