Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>There could be an addition to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in January following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> is a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>'s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.</li>
</ul>


We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in January following Pendal Group (PDL AU)'s acquisition by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).

PEXA Group (PXA AU) is a potential inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) if Link Administration (LNK AU)'s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.


S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

At its AGM in November, EML Payments presented the outcome of its recent strategic review and the new three-year transformation plan. This includes fully integrating previous acquisitions, streamlining operations, becoming more customer-focused and developing EML’s product suite to evolve from prepaid cards to embedded finance. Based on Q123 trading we have revised our forecasts down to the lower end of new FY23 guidance.

At its AGM in November, EML Payments presented the outcome of its recent strategic review and the new three-year transformation plan. This includes fully integrating previous acquisitions, streamlining operations, becoming more customer-focused and developing EML’s product suite to evolve from prepaid cards to embedded finance. Based on Q123 trading we have revised our forecasts down to the lower end of new FY23 guidance.  

EML Payments - New three-year plan to transform the business

The Irish regulator has extended the growth cap on European General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) volumes for an additional 12 months to the end of CY23. This limits growth of volumes in Europe (ex-UK) to 10% over the baseline volume in the first nine months of CY22. This restriction could be lifted early, if third-party assurance of ongoing remediation work is finalised before the end of CY23. We have revised our forecasts to reflect slower volume growth in GPR and higher compliance-related overheads.

The Irish regulator has extended the growth cap on European General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) volumes for an additional 12 months to the end of CY23. This limits growth of volumes in Europe (ex-UK) to 10% over the baseline volume in the first nine months of CY22. This restriction could be lifted early, if third-party assurance of ongoing remediation work is finalised before the end of CY23. We have revised our forecasts to reflect slower volume growth in GPR and higher compliance-related overheads.

EML Payments - Irish regulator extends growth cap

EML Payments has announced that due to concerns raised by the UK regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), it will temporarily cease onboarding new customers in relation to its UK subsidiary Prepaid Financial Services Limited (PFS UK). Concerns are similar in nature to those raised by the Irish regulator relating to PFS’s Irish subsidiary and should be addressed as part of the remediation programme that is currently underway. The cap on new business is likely to reduce FY23 revenue by up to c 2% and to resolve the issue, is likely to require additional compliance and risk management expenditure; we maintain our forecasts pending the update on the strategic review due on 25 November.

EML Payments has announced that due to concerns raised by the UK regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), it will temporarily cease onboarding new customers in relation to its UK subsidiary Prepaid Financial Services Limited (PFS UK). Concerns are similar in nature to those raised by the Irish regulator relating to PFS’s Irish subsidiary and should be addressed as part of the remediation programme that is currently underway. The cap on new business is likely to reduce FY23 revenue by up to c 2% and to resolve the issue, is likely to require additional compliance and risk management expenditure; we maintain our forecasts pending the update on the strategic review due on 25 November.

EML Payments - UK regulator raises concerns

After a tough year dealing with the recovery from COVID and the European regulatory issue, EML Payments reported FY22 revenue growth of 21% (17% organic), underlying EBITDA down 4% and underlying NPATA down 1% y-o-y. The recently appointed CEO has launched a strategic review, with the outcome expected in November. While no quantitative guidance was given for FY23, we have reduced our EBITDA and NPATA forecasts for FY23/24 to reflect higher inflation, the ongoing costs of strengthening the risk and compliance functions and lower service-related fees.

After a tough year dealing with the recovery from COVID and the European regulatory issue, EML Payments reported FY22 revenue growth of 21% (17% organic), underlying EBITDA down 4% and underlying NPATA down 1% y-o-y. The recently appointed CEO has launched a strategic review, with the outcome expected in November. While no quantitative guidance was given for FY23, we have reduced our EBITDA and NPATA forecasts for FY23/24 to reflect higher inflation, the ongoing costs of strengthening the risk and compliance functions and lower service-related fees.


EML Payments - Strategic review for sustainable growth

Australia

EML Payments Limited is a financial services company that specializes in pre-paid financial cards.

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EML Payments Limited (EML AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

There could be an adhoc ASX200 inclusion in Jan. Then there could be 1 change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the ASX200...

Brian Freitas

EML Payments - New three-year plan to transform the business

At its AGM in November, EML Payments presented the outcome of its recent strategic review and the new three-year transformation plan. This includes...

Edison Investment Research

EML Payments - Irish regulator extends growth cap

The Irish regulator has extended the growth cap on European General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) volumes for an additional 12 months to the end of...

Edison Investment Research

EML Payments - UK regulator raises concerns

EML Payments has announced that due to concerns raised by the UK regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), it will temporarily cease...

Edison Investment Research

EML Payments - Strategic review for sustainable growth

After a tough year dealing with the recovery from COVID and the European regulatory issue, EML Payments reported FY22 revenue growth of 21% (17%...

Edison Investment Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

There could be an adhoc ASX200 inclusion in Jan. Then there could be 1 change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the ASX200...

Brian Freitas

EML Payments - New three-year plan to transform the business

At its AGM in November, EML Payments presented the outcome of its recent strategic review and the new three-year transformation plan. This includes...

Edison Investment Research

EML Payments - Irish regulator extends growth cap

The Irish regulator has extended the growth cap on European General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) volumes for an additional 12 months to the end of...

Edison Investment Research

EML Payments - UK regulator raises concerns

EML Payments has announced that due to concerns raised by the UK regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), it will temporarily cease...

Edison Investment Research

EML Payments - Strategic review for sustainable growth

After a tough year dealing with the recovery from COVID and the European regulatory issue, EML Payments reported FY22 revenue growth of 21% (17%...

Edison Investment Research

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)