Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, we have observed a couple of important changes to candidate rankings and that has resulted in some changes to our index change expectations.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.
Since my last insight, we have observed a couple of important changes to candidate rankings and that has resulted in some changes to our index change expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Multiple Changes Possible for NIFTY 50; Some New Trade Ideas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Q4FY24 earnings season saw an overall healthy performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 6%/22% YoY and 4%/13% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~226 stocks)</li><li>Further, the 5-year CAGR for annual revenue/PAT between FY19 to FY24 was 11%/17%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q4FY24 earnings season saw an overall healthy performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 6%/22% YoY and 4%/13% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~226 stocks)Further, the 5-year CAGR for annual revenue/PAT between FY19 to FY24 was 11%/17%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Quarterly Flipbook: Strong End to FY24, a Muted FY25 on the Cards

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>May’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 6%/4%YoY/MoM, largely led by strong domestic SUV volumes across Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) , which were partly offset by weakness in entry-level cars and exports (in Maruti).</li><li>The domestic 2W industry after witnessing strong double digit growth on a low base, witnessed volume growth of ~10% YoY (down 8% MoM) and export volume grew 12% YoY (down 7% MoM) respectively.</li><li>The domestic CV industry sales grew by ~3% YoY (flat MoM), driven by high volumes in the bus segment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

May’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 6%/4%YoY/MoM, largely led by strong domestic SUV volumes across Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) , which were partly offset by weakness in entry-level cars and exports (in Maruti).The domestic 2W industry after witnessing strong double digit growth on a low base, witnessed volume growth of ~10% YoY (down 8% MoM) and export volume grew 12% YoY (down 7% MoM) respectively.The domestic CV industry sales grew by ~3% YoY (flat MoM), driven by high volumes in the bus segment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a> should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ltimindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22778:1" rel="noopener">LTIMindtree (LTIM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/divi-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4871:1" rel="noopener">Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> meet the free float market cap requirements but are not part of the F&amp;O segment.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> trackers will need to trade at least 3.8 days of ADV and 9 days of delivery volume on the index changes.</li>
</ul>



Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) and Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) should replace LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) and Divi's Laboratories (DIVI IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in September.

Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) and Zomato (ZOMATO IN) meet the free float market cap requirements but are not part of the F&amp;O segment.
Passive NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) trackers will need to trade at least 3.8 days of ADV and 9 days of delivery volume on the index changes.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes in September; Adds Are Flying

<ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 550, owing to the risk of (1) lower auto-fuel marketing margins and (2) moderation in refining margins</li><li>Q4FY24 EBITDA stood at INR 92.1bn and reported PAT at INR 42.2bn, coming in below our estimate</li><li>Impairment loss of INR 18bn, lower refining margins, higher other expenses and inventory loss impacted earnings</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 550, owing to the risk of (1) lower auto-fuel marketing margins and (2) moderation in refining marginsQ4FY24 EBITDA stood at INR 92.1bn and reported PAT at INR 42.2bn, coming in below our estimateImpairment loss of INR 18bn, lower refining margins, higher other expenses and inventory loss impacted earningsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Eicher Motors

India

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

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Eicher Motors (EIM IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Multiple Changes Possible for NIFTY 50; Some New Trade Ideas

There are at least four names eligible for NIFTY 50 addition in September 2024. However, the final count ADDs and DELs will be a discretionary...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quarterly Flipbook: Strong End to FY24, a Muted FY25 on the Cards

Q4FY24 earnings season saw an overall healthy performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies. Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 6%/22%...

HDFC Securities

Auto Monthly Volume - May 2024

The domestic 2W industry after witnessing strong double digit growth on a low base, witnessed volume growth of ~10% YoY (down 8% MoM) and export...

Axis Direct

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes in September; Adds Are Flying

Trent and Bharat Electronics could replace LTIM and Divi in the index in September. JioFin and Zomato are ineligible since not in F&O. Impact on...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Eicher Motors

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 550, owing to the risk of (1)...

HDFC Securities

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