Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Indian Market (~$4 trillion) has now overtaken Hong Kong as the 4th most-valued stock market after the US, China, and Japan. </li>
<li>We recently concluded an exploratory trip to Patna, the capital, and also the largest city of the state of Bihar, Summarized thoughts on companies focused in this insight. </li>
<li>Multiple stocks covered in the Insight. The future of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/easy-trip-planners-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34149:1" rel="noopener">Easy Trip Planners (EASEMYTR IN)</a>, especially if it's banking on franchisee expansion, could go the other way around.</li>
</ul>


The Indian Market (~$4 trillion) has now overtaken Hong Kong as the 4th most-valued stock market after the US, China, and Japan. 
We recently concluded an exploratory trip to Patna, the capital, and also the largest city of the state of Bihar, Summarized thoughts on companies focused in this insight. 
Multiple stocks covered in the Insight. The future of Easy Trip Planners (EASEMYTR IN), especially if it's banking on franchisee expansion, could go the other way around.


[Week 14] Namaste India 🙏 | EASEMYTR IN | Easy Trip's Ghost Franchise?

<ul>
<li>Market sentiment remains optimistic, we anticipate the rally to continue with 20,200 on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> as a trend check level. </li>
<li>There are concerns about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-97-communications-limited-paytm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a> growth in personal loans in the near term, but the merchant side provides a large enough opportunity.  </li>
<li>Other names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poonawalla-fincorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3449:1" rel="noopener">Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/five-star-business-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35238:1" rel="noopener">Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Market sentiment remains optimistic, we anticipate the rally to continue with 20,200 on the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) as a trend check level. 
There are concerns about Paytm (PAYTM IN) growth in personal loans in the near term, but the merchant side provides a large enough opportunity.  
Other names discussed include Eicher Motors (EIM IN), Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN), and Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN) 


[Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive valuation of 4.7x Mar-25 EPS, a ~10% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.2x, 0.7x Mar-25 P/Bv with RoE of ~16%, and a dividend yield of ~6%</li><li>However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gas</li><li>Q2FY24 reported EBITDA at INR 184bn (-2% YoY, -6% QoQ), coming in marginally below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected statutory levies and other expenses</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive valuation of 4.7x Mar-25 EPS, a ~10% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.2x, 0.7x Mar-25 P/Bv with RoE of ~16%, and a dividend yield of ~6%However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gasQ2FY24 reported EBITDA at INR 184bn (-2% YoY, -6% QoQ), coming in marginally below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected statutory levies and other expensesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE,

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive valuation of 4.7x Mar-25 EPS, a ~10% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.2x, 0.7x Mar-25 P/Bv with RoE of ~16%, and a dividend yield of ~6%</li><li>However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gas</li><li>Q2FY24 reported EBITDA at INR 184bn (-2% YoY, -6% QoQ), coming in marginally below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected statutory levies and other expenses</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Eicher reported a strong set of Q2FY24 numbers with EBITDA and PAT beating our estimate.</li><li>Revenue missed our estimates by 2% (up 16%/1% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>The company’s sales volume (reported earlier) was up 10%/1% YoY/QoQ to 229k units in Q2FY24. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Eicher reported a strong set of Q2FY24 numbers with EBITDA and PAT beating our estimate.Revenue missed our estimates by 2% (up 16%/1% YoY/QoQ).The company’s sales volume (reported earlier) was up 10%/1% YoY/QoQ to 229k units in Q2FY24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Eicher Motors  - Robust Q2FY24; Medium-Term Growth Drivers Intact

India

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

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Eicher Motors (EIM IN)

[Week 14] Namaste India 🙏 | EASEMYTR IN | Easy Trip's Ghost Franchise?

Indian stock market surpasses Hong Kong to become the 4th most valuable market. Insight on Easy Trip Planners suggests franchisee expansion may...

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns

Market sentiment remains optimistic with the NIFTY Index as a trend check level. Concerns about Paytm's growth. Other names discussed: Eicher...

Pranav Bhavsar

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE,

We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE

We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive...

HDFC Securities

Eicher Motors - Robust Q2FY24; Medium-Term Growth Drivers Intact

Eicher reported a strong set of Q2FY24 numbers with EBITDA and PAT beating our estimate. Revenue missed our estimates by 2% (up 16%/1% YoY/QoQ).

Axis Direct

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[Week 14] Namaste India 🙏 | EASEMYTR IN | Easy Trip's Ghost Franchise?

​Indian stock market surpasses Hong Kong to become the 4th most valuable market. Insight on Easy Trip Planners suggests franchisee expansion may...

Pranav Bhavsar

[Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns

​Market sentiment remains optimistic with the NIFTY Index as a trend check level. Concerns about Paytm's growth. Other names discussed: Eicher...

Pranav Bhavsar

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE,

We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE

We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive...

HDFC Securities

Eicher Motors - Robust Q2FY24; Medium-Term Growth Drivers Intact

Eicher reported a strong set of Q2FY24 numbers with EBITDA and PAT beating our estimate. Revenue missed our estimates by 2% (up 16%/1% YoY/QoQ).

Axis Direct

Indian stock market surpasses Hong Kong to become the 4th most valuable market. Insight on Easy Trip Planners suggests franchisee expansion may...

Market sentiment remains optimistic with the NIFTY Index as a trend check level. Concerns about Paytm's growth. Other names discussed: Eicher...